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  • #61
    so using combination of wave cycles can give better predictions Wavelet cycle hunter + q spectrum .
    can we forecast a month or week rather using it for longer time frame
    any suggestions from ur end

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    • #62
      Forecast horizon is not dependent on any factor I think. If we use Intraday, then it cant be used to forecast a month or year however with EOD, we can do short to long term. The accuracy of forecast is more important.

      The guy who is helping me said, run the forecast weekly as new cycles would be coming and old cycles may be fading. However, what I found is that the forecast changes dramatically.

      Hence we are looking for when all the forecast points to a downtrend/uptrend. Lets try this for this month and observe.

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      • #63
        What do you think guys, was the forecast any good? When I compare the forecast with what happened, looks like the

        high of 19-8-19 occurred 1 day earlier
        low of 25-8-19 occurred 2-3 days earlier

        and we are supposed to enter a slight uptrend till 7-9-19 and oscillate till 17-9 and then really take off.

        I actually DID NOT trade any of the turns till now.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by kesk View Post
          What do you think guys, was the forecast any good? When I compare the forecast with what happened, looks like the

          high of 19-8-19 occurred 1 day earlier
          low of 25-8-19 occurred 2-3 days earlier

          and we are supposed to enter a slight uptrend till 7-9-19 and oscillate till 17-9 and then really take off.

          I actually DID NOT trade any of the turns till now.
          we can perform option trades based on turns
          debit spreads

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          • #65
            Care to elaborate how ?

            Originally posted by traderin View Post
            we can perform option trades based on turns
            debit spreads

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            • #66
              Originally posted by kesk View Post
              Care to elaborate how ?
              provide me some forecast dates of nifty & bank nifty for this expiry or next series
              i will try to elaborate it

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              • #67
                On work related visit outside, will certainly provide one next weekk

                Originally posted by traderin View Post
                provide me some forecast dates of nifty & bank nifty for this expiry or next series
                i will try to elaborate it

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                • #68
                  Here is an updated forecast picture.

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                  • #69
                    I attended the Larry Williams CMT program a few days ago where he commented that instead of using price & its derivatives, forecasting Volatility (fear & greed) can be a good idea and he demonstrated the same using Timingsolution. However, he did not disclose any parameter or technique in the webminar. I used the Volatility of the Close-PrevClose method (an indicator in TSA) to make a forecast.

                    The past :




                    The future:





                    Being Volatility, I believe one should interpret the correlation as inverted. That is, Volatility high, market is low and vice versa.

                    Next thing is forecasting using VIX data.

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                    • #70
                      Here is the forecast of VIX itself

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                      • #71
                        [QUOTE=kesk;461186]On work related visit outside ?
                        i didn't get it

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                        • #72
                          kesk,

                          good work.

                          Regards
                          JB

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                          • #73
                            Just today only after a huge down-day, I wanted to check the correlation of the forecasts:

                            1. VIX - On 17th, today, there was a slight upward indication - Good correlation

                            2. Volatility indicator on NIFTY - Indicates a low day

                            3. Nifty - Yesterday was supposed to be a low day, but turned out to be today.

                            I am really not sure, whether the turning points are bankable ! Should I continue or stop posting these pictures.

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                            • #74
                              please continue your contribution..

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by kesk View Post
                                I attended the Larry Williams CMT program a few days ago where he commented that instead of using price & its derivatives, forecasting Volatility (fear & greed) can be a good idea and he demonstrated the same using Timingsolution. However, he did not disclose any parameter or technique in the webminar. I used the Volatility of the Close-PrevClose method (an indicator in TSA) to make a forecast.

                                The past :




                                The future:





                                Being Volatility, I believe one should interpret the correlation as inverted. That is, Volatility high, market is low and vice versa.

                                Next thing is forecasting using VIX data.
                                Hi Kesk, I use RPO instead of the instrument itself in all of my forecast.

                                https://i.imgur.com/p7PROBX.jpg

                                Comment

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