Hotforex daily market Analysis.

Date : 09th October 2018.

 

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 09th October 2018.

 

 

FX News Today

 

FX Action:USDJPY has settled around 113.00, above the eight-session low printed yesterday at 112.82. Ranges have been narrow in currency markets, despite risk appetite remaining firmly on the negative side of the dial. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) Index hit a 17-month low. The IMF cut its growth forecasts for both this year and next, including downgrades of the outlooks for the US, Europe and China. PBoC set the USD-CNY reference rate at 6.9019. Often times, such a backdrop would see the Yen appreciate, though the rise in US over Japan yield differential appears to be providing offsetting support for USDJPY. The 10-year US Treasury yield has today lifted to a fresh 7-year highs above 3.25%.

 

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 3.239%, Treasury yields climbed 0.1 bp to 0.146%, while stocks traded mixed during the Asian session. Chinese and Hong Kong markets stabilized after yesterday’s sharp correction in Chinese stocks that were partly driven by catch up trades. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on Japanese equities. IMF warnings on the global growth outlook meanwhile lifted pressure on bonds, although the IMF referred mainly to growth outside the US and tax cut fuelled expansion in the US will continue to keep the Fed on a tightening path. Still, some are expecting BoJ to act more aggressively to curb the uptick in long yields. Topix and Nikkei are currently down -1.84% and -1.30% respectively. The ASX fell -0.97% though, and U.S. stock futures are also down while oil prices climbed higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 74.67 per barrel.

 

Charts of the Day

 

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

* Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – The September starts are expected to improve to a 210k pace in September from 201.0k in August.

 

* MPC Member Broadbent Speech – BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is due to testify on the use of the Retail Price Index before the Economic Affairs Committee, in London.

 

* Gov Council Member Wilkins Speech – Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appears in a panel at the Empowering Women in the Workplace Seminar at an IMF event in Bali Indonesia.

 

Support and Resistance Levels

 

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th October 2018.

 

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2018.

 

 

FX News Today

 

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after sliding yesterday with Trump suggesting he would prefer the Fed to slow down the tightening cycle. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.144%, and bond markets were generally supported during the Asian session, while stocks traded mixed. Mainland China bourses were under pressure and the CSI 300 has lost -0.47% so far. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are also down -0.185 and -0.26% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.49% though and Topix and Nikkei gained 0.24% and 0.10% as tech stocks stabilized after a three day rout. The Kospi lost -0.87% as Trump suggested he will not meet with North Korea’s leader until after the midterm elections on November 6. US futures are trading narrowly mixed and oil prices are slightly lower on the day, trading at USD 74.71 per barrel.

 

 European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.4 bp at 0.532% in opening trade. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after falling back yesterday and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.145%. The global rise in long rates seems to have halted for now and Bunds got an additional boost from a fresh wave of save haven flows as Italian bonds are once again under pressure this morning, with 10-year BTP rates up 4.4 bp at 3.512%. Stock futures are mostly lower in Europe and marginally higher in the US after a mixed session in Asia. Italian fiscal jitters and Brexit developments remain in focus, while the data calendar also livens up today with production numbers out of France and the UK.

 

Charts of the Day

 

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

* UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, with Manufacturing Production expected to have increased to the same extent.

 

* UK Real GDP – Expectations – UK GDP is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, compared to 0.3% in July, where the World Cup effect took place.

 

* US Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy – The US PPI is expected to have increased by 2.5% in September, compared to 2.3% in August, on account of higher inflation in the country.

 

Support and Resistance Levels

 

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. 

Dr Nektarios Michail

Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 3rd May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 3.

 

Market News Today – A month-end bid, and rotation out of equities has supported!

 

Covid continues to wreak havoc in parts of Asia, and will keep investors nervous again this week, as India deals with a firestorm of new cases (the highest daily cases anywhere in the world) and rising deaths. Additionally, parts of Japan remain under a state of emergency with restrictions in areas including Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Japan will be on Golden Week holidays Monday through Wednesday, and there are no top-tier data releases for the remainder of the week. China’s April trade report is due at the end of the week. The quiet session in Asia impacted trading in Europe today, with the UK still on an extended weekend break. GER30 futures are fractionally higher at the moment, and US futures are outperforming, although the tech heavy USA100 future is struggling amid lingering concern over China’s anti-trust crackdown, that also saw the Hang Seng selling off again. Inflation developments and lingering tapering fears will also be on markets’ minds as the BoE meeting comes into view. Elsewhere, CPI data from around the globe, along with the usual mix of growth, trade, retail sales and US NFP. For central banks, the RBA, BoJ and BoE meet, though no changes are expected. German retail sales jumped 7.7% m/m in March.

 

In FX markets, the Yen and US Dollar retreated and USDJPY lifted to 109.62, while the USDIndex jumped to 91.40. The US Dollar strengthened as risk trades slipped further. USOIL meanwhile dropped back to $62.90 per barrel. Ethereum has hit a fresh record high, following news of a potential digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain.

 

Today – The calendar today includes the final readings for Eurozone April manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. Earnings season continues with reports from Estee Lauder, Enterprise Products, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, WEC Energy, Williams Companies, ON Semi, SolarEdge, Loews Corp., Diamondback Energy, Chegg, and Apollo Global Management. The Treasury will outline its Q2 and Q3 borrowing projections.

 

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.37%) – NZDJPY reversed Friday’s losses and extended to 78.65. The overall outlook remains positive, while in the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is breaking above 50 with MACD extending northwards but remains below 0. ATR (H1) at 0.1104 & ATR (D) at 0.6449.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 5 – Yellen finesses comments.

 

Market News Today – USD continues its May recovery (USDIndex holds over 91.00), Equities closed lower (Nasdaq shed 1.88%). Mrs. Yellen spooked the market and then toned down her interest rate rise/inflation comments. The Fed’s Kaplan and Allianz’s Al El-Erian also talk up “non-transitory” nature of the inflation threat. Yields cooled on USD advance, fell to 1.55% before moving 1.59%. Overnight Good jobs data from NZD and Housing data from AUD lift the antipodean pair. Japan, China and South Korea still closed.

 

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone, JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.40, Cable rotates around 1.3900. AUD has support at 0.7700 and CAD still rotates through 1.2300

 

USOIL at 38-day high peaked at $66.00, Gold – $1776 following a volatile session (highs $1798, lows $1770) Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test $55,000(PP).

 

European Open – The rout in tech stocks that hit markets yesterday has eased somewhat and US futures are moving higher – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also sought. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday reminded markets that with economies strengthening as fiscal stimulus picks up it is not a question of if, but when central banks will take the foot off the accelerator. Official rates may remain low for a while to come, but when asset purchases are reigned in, the long end will suffer. Stocks meanwhile may continue to see rotations out of companies that benefited from stay home orders to cyclicals. With the DAX closing below the 15000 mark yesterday there is room to the downside.

 

Today – Eurozone & US services & composite PMIs, ISM services PMI, ADP Employment, Oil Inventories, Fed’s Evans, Rosengren, Mester, ECB’s Lane, Earnings from GM, Barrick Gold, Maersk, Deutsche Post, Uber, PayPal & Hilton Hotels.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.27%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday (77.70) over 78.00. Today, PP at 78.07 and R1 at 78.50. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & neutral, MACD histogram over 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs cooling to neutral. H1 ATR 0.1065, Daily ATR 0.6200.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.27%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday (77.70) over 78.00. Today, PP at 78.07 and R1 at 78.50. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & neutral, MACD histogram over 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs cooling to neutral. H1 ATR 0.1065, Daily ATR 0.6200.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 6th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 6 – GBP in focus ahead of BoE & Elections.

 

Market News Today – USD consolidates, (USDIndex holds PP at 91.25), Equities closed mixed (new ATH for USA30, USA100 down 0.37% as rotation away from tech continues). The AUD fell over 0.5% as China said it will “indefinitely suspend” all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. 10-yr Yields held at 1.59%. Commodities tear continues – Copper nudging 10- yr highs. German Factory orders much better than expected. Japan, China and South Korea back to work. Biden agrees to IP waiver for Covid vaccines.

 

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone (again), JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.30, Cable rotates around 1.3900 ahead of BOE & Elections. AUD held support at 0.7700, back to 0.7745 now and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2250 zone.

 

USOIL peaked at $66.65 yesterday tested $65.00 post inventories – back to $65.70 now Gold – $1794 following a test of 200hr support at $1775). Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test $58,000 yesterday at $57,000 now. Dogecoin –

 

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, U.S. futures are little changed, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 1.58%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.01% and 0.13% respectively, U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia, where rising trade tensions between China and Australia weighed on local markets. Investors will be starting to look ahead to tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report, but today’s local calendar is also quite busy, with BoE and Norges Bank announcing policy, a key local election in the U.K. that could have bearing on Scotland’s relation with Westminister, and a number of data points.

 

Today – BoE & (Norges & CBRT) rate decisions, UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Mester. Earnings from Moderna, Rengeneron, ViacomCBS, Peloton, AB Inbev, Continental, ArcelorMittal, ING, Volkswagen, SocGen, UniCredit. Up to 48 million people to vote in UK local elections.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.18%) rallied from lows below 131.00 yesterday to test R1 at 131.35 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55 & moving higher, MACD histogram testing 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs risingto test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0886, Daily ATR 0.6745.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 7th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 7 – USD weaker ahead of NFP.

 

Market News Today – USD moves lower, (USDIndex down (0.45%) to 90.80 earlier), EUR and Sterling both bid. Equities all closed higher (new ATH for USA30, USA500 +0.82%) Financials biggest gainers. Commodities tear continues GOLD breaks $1820. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.568%. Asian markets higher on strong data, from JPY (Earnings), CNY (Services PMI & the Trade Balance more than doubled) and NZD (inflation expectations).

 

EUR – rallied to test 1.2070, JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.15, Cable rotates around 1.3900 again after volatile BOE reaction and ahead of Election results. AUD rallied to 0.7790, and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2140 – a new 38-month low.

 

USOIL peaked at $66.65 on Wednesday and tested under $65.00 earlier. Gold – major rally to $1820 first daily close over 200-day EMA ($1796) since mid-February. Commodities remain robust. BTC back down from test $58,000 yesterday to $56,000 now.

 

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks on the day, underperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed. In cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has dropped -0.3 bp to 1.566% overnight, despite markets positioning for a stellar US jobs report, which owes much to reassurances from major central banks that they will be patient on tapering and rates. Stock futures are moving higher, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures currently posting gains of 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. US futures are underperforming, but are also supported with a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way.

 

Today – UK construction PMI, US and Canadian labour market reports, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Haldane, Broadbent, Fed’s Barkin Earnings from Adidas, BMW, Credit Agricole, IAG, Siemens.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.34%) rallied from 7-day lows below 1.7830 yesterday to test PP at 1.7900 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.0117.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th May 2021.

 

May 10 – GBP skyrockets, USD down, Crypto and Metals in the spotlight.

 

Market News Today – The overall tone in stocks remained positive through the Asian part of the session, after Wall Street shrugged off the disappointment of the US jobs report on Friday and took solace in the fact that the data will back the Fed’s dovish tone. Many Asian indices moved higher, while bonds struggled. JPN225 gained 0.4% today, the ASX more than 1% after strong business confidence data. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed and corrected -0.5% and -0.8% respectively against the background of anti-trust efforts and lingering US-China tensions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside gains in US futures.

 

In FX markets, the US Dollar sank to a 2-month low at 90.18. The GBP rallied to a 10-week high after local elections provided a boost to PM Johnson and seemed to fend off demands for another independence referendum in Scotland. Cable is trading at 1.4062 and EURGBP at 08640. EURUSD meanwhile dropped slightly to 1.2150. USDJPY lifted to 108.98 as the Yen weakened across the board. CAD and AUD were supported. USOIL is traded at $65.36 per barrel, after a key US pipeline was forced shut by a cyber attack (Colonial Pipeline). Copper skyrocketed to 4.869.

 

Ethereum extended this month’s record run, surging more than 5% to an unprecedented $4,148.88. The second-biggest digital token has rallied 41% so far in May. Bitcoin rallied but remains below 60K after Elon Musk called dogecoin a “hustle” during his guest-host spot on the “Saturday Night Live” comedy sketch TV show.

 

Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the $126 bln May refunding is on tap, and includes $58 bln in 3-year notes Tuesday, $41 bln in 10-year notes Wednesday, and $27 bln in 30-year bonds Thursday. Yields plunged on Friday following the jobs miss, but rebounded into the close as the market looked ahead to the upcoming supply. The wi 3-year traded 2 bps richer at 0.315% late Friday, with the wi 10-year fractionally cheaper at 1.590% and the wi 30-year 3.5 bps cheaper at 2.280%. Rates here would be the richest in two months for the 3- and 30-year maturities, and since March for the 10-year. Many of the auctions this year have shown sputtering demand, leading some to worry that demand for Treasuries is diminishing. This week’s auctions will be an interesting test, especially given richer rates alongside uncertainties over inflation, and now the job market.

 

Today – Virus developments remain encouraging and with central banks still providing support, it seems the recovery remains on track. Today’s data calendar is pretty quiet, but includes UK house price data.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.92%) rallied from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI crossed 70 and still points upwards, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher extending away from 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.218, Daily ATR 0.990.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 11th May 2021.

 

May 11 – Tech sell off & Commodities gain ahead of today’s data.

 

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

 

Market News Today – The stock markets sold off across Asia. Inflation concerns have hit tech stocks in particular, and the rise in commodity prices has seen the 5-year break even inflation rate lifting to the highest level since 2006, according to Bloomberg calculations. China CPI climbed to a 0.9% y/y clip in April, more than double the 0.4% y/y from March. The jump in commodity prices has sparked concern over extended valuations in equities and JPN225 corrected -2.4% and -2.1% respectively. The ASX sold off -1.0% and the Hang Seng is currently down -1.8%. Mainland China bourses outperformed despite a higher than expected PPI reading that reflected surging commodity prices worldwide.

 

While demand for Treasuries will be supported by safe haven flows, Eurozone peripherals, which outperformed yesterday, may well feel the chill this morning. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -1.3% and -1.2% respectively and a 0.7% correction in the tech heavy USA100 is leading US futures lower.

 

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 108.95, with the US Dollar and Yen both struggling. Cable stabilised at high levels after yesterday’s surge – currently at 1.4124, as the UK BRC retail sales figures confirmed a surge in demand as the country continues to re-open. EURUSD meanwhile lifted to 1.2143. USOIL eased back to $64.33, as traders keep a wary eye on the impact of the cyber attack that led to pipeline closures.

 

Today – Today’s data calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to move higher.

 

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURCHF (+0.66%) reversed more than 40% of its 3-day decline from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, but RSI is close to 50 and MACD histogram & signal line remain well below zero even though they are presenting decreasing negative bias. The intraday positive bias remains limited. H1 ATR 0.0006, Daily ATR 0.0038.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 12th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 12 – Inflation day.

 

Market News Today – Fears over rising inflation weighed on both stocks and bonds, with equities bearing the brunt of the pressure. The broader indexes were the underperformers with the USA30 dropping -1.9% and the USA100 was down sharply too, off nearly -2%. Today, GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. The rout in tech stocks in particular continued to see wider markets selling off overnight, and European bourses are likely to continue to struggle ahead of key US inflation data later today. Treasuries were heavy too, led by the long end amid the inflation threat. Yields have spiked in Australia and New Zealand, after some warnings that Australia could lose its AAA rating.

 

Inflation fears have made a comeback although the sell off in equities seems to be abating somewhat, likely also thanks to ongoing verbal support from central banks, which continue to see the current spike in inflation as transitory. There was a plethora of Fedspeak and all concurred it was not the time to discuss tapering, while suggesting the disappointing jobs report was likely due to other issues aside from unemployment benefits.

 

In FX markets, the USD strengthened and USDJPY lifted to 108.89. AUD and NZD are broadly lower. Cable eased at high levels currently at 1.4130, EURUSD sustains support at 1.2115 for a 3rd day. USOIL stabilised at the $65 area.

 

Today – Today’s US inflation reading aside, the local calendar confirmed German HICP inflation at 2.1% largely thanks to base effects from energy prices. UK GDP for Q1 came in a tad better than feared, with the quarterly rate showing a contraction of -1.5% q/q, largely due to lockdown measures.

 

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.37%) broke 20- and 50-day SMA, spiking to 1.5562 high so far. Faster MAs stabilised and are flattened currently, as RSI after the 70 high is pulling back despite the bullish bias in the MACD histogram. Hence the intraday indicators suggest the end of the rally for the time being. H1 ATR 0.00185, Daily ATR 0.00911.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 13th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 13 – Inflation jump keeps trading nervous.

 

Market News Today –Despite warnings from policymakers, the jump in prices will keep trading nervous. Central bank officials remain adamant that the inflation overshoot that will likely be mirrored in the UK and if not the Eurozone then Germany, is mainly due to base effects and should be transitory, but stocks at least are not so convinced. The surge in April CPI weighed heavily on Treasuries and the jump in yields knocked Wall Street sharply lower. The spike in CPI stole the show this week, though the Fed and indeed global monetary authorities have warned about rising inflationary pressures, the 0.8% jump in the headline and 0.9% surge in the core elicited heavy selling.

 

Wall Street is on its heels with the USA100 falling -2.67% and the USA500 and USA30 tumbling -2.14% and -1.99%, respectively. The Treasury’s 10-year auction was very well bid, though at the highest yield in over a year. Bond markets across Asia sold off in catch up trade.

 

BoJ’s Kuroda joined the chorus of central bank officials playing down the spike in inflation as mainly due to base effects, but that didn’t prevent a further sell off in Asian stock markets. Asian equity markets remained under pressure after the sell off on Wall Street yesterday and European stock futures are also lower, with GER30 and UK100 down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively in catch up trade, after still closing higher on Wednesday.

 

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 109.68. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD and Cable are little changed at currently 1.2074 and 1.4055 respectively. USOIL is at the $65.37 area. Bitcoin slumped and then recovered somewhat, after Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla Inc has suspended vehicle purchases using the digital currency due to environmental concerns.

 

Today – Scandi and Swiss markets are closed and many countries are either celebrating Ascension Day or end end of Ramadan, which will likely make for quiet trading conditions. On tap we have US Jobless Claims and speeches from BoC Macklem and BoE Bailey.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%) spiked higher above R1 breaking the upper BB line and retesting the nearly 3-months Resistance, at 1.5700. Intraday the MAs aligned higher while RSI is at 71 but flattened and MACD is also positively configured suggesting a positive to neutral outlook. ATR (H1) at 0.00231 & ATR (D) at 0.00993.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 17th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 17 – USD lifts, Gold rallies, BTC Sinks.

 

Market News Today – USD remains weak (USDIndex down to 90.27). Equities all closed higher (US100 biggest gainer up 2.32%), 457 of USA500 have reported earnings and 87% have beat expectations. Futs. softer today. Commodities tear continues, GOLD breaks $1850. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.62% from 1.70% last week. BTC bombed 12% before recovering, Musk suggested Tesla selling some or all of $1.5b investment (later denied). Asian markets mixed on mixed Chinese data, (Retail Sales missed significantly, Ind. Output in line, Unemployment improved.)

 

This week – Economic data slim, Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowes and Cisco.

 

EUR – down a tad to 1.2135, JPY holds over 109.00 down to 109.20, Cable holds over 1.4100 AUD holds 0.7760 and CAD holds 1.2100

 

USOIL back over $65.00 from lows at $63.00 on Thursday, Gold – rallied to 3 mth high $1855 Commodities remain robust. BTC down to test under $42,000, back to $44,000 now.

 

European Open – Futures are also mixed, with US indices in the red, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both up 0.1%. The UK is taking another step towards a full re-opening of the economy today, but amid warnings of caution against the background of new virus variants. In the Eurozone, restrictions vary considerably across countries, with some already at the level of openness that the UK is now going back to. In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar earlier, only to improve as the session opened. Data releases today remain thin on the ground, with only the final reading for Italian HICP numbers of note.

 

Today – US NY Fed Manufacturing, BoE’s Haldane, Vlieghe, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Earnings from RyanAir & Advanced Auto Parts.

 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.50%) rallied from 5-day lows below 1.9420 on close to test 1.9550 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 61 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line. Stochs rising and OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0155.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

What's your view on ability of Bitcoin and crypto to extend correction?

 

Date : 19th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 19 – USD & Equities weak, BTC Slumps.

 

Market News Today – USD remains weak and cannot catch a bid at the moment. USDIndex down to 89.67. Equities closed down -0.85%, with significant fall in final hour; USA500 4127, despite robust earnings from Walmart & Home Depot. Housing data disappointed. VIX spiked 7.6% to 22.75. Asian markets follow lower. GOLD tested key $1875 level, USOil under $65.00. 10-yr Yields holds at 1.64% despite USD weakness. BTC tumbles under $40,000 on Chinese regulation. Overnight – NZD PPI better than expected, AUD Industrial Production misses. UK CPI – inline at 1.5% (although RPI & PPI stronger).

 

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), still to come today – Target, Lowes and Cisco.

 

EUR – up and holds over 1.2200 at 3-mth highs 1.2240, JPY struggles and slips under 109.00, Cable rallied to 1.4220 highs yesterday, back under 1.4200 now. AUD back under 0.7800, CAD up from 6-year lows at 1.2012 to 1.2065, and NZD (yesterdays best performer) at 0.7230 from 0.7270)

 

USOIL edges back to $65.00, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at $1875, trades at $1873. Commodities remain robust. BTC sank under $40,000, (& Ether lost 13% to $2,900) after “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters. VIX again the largest mover UP 7.60% over 22.60 at 4-day highs.

 

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is currently up 0.3 bp at 1.64%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.98% and -0.99% respectively, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which are also in the red, however, after a largely weaker session across Asia overnight. Inflation concerns remain in focus and markets will be watch out for the FOMC minutes today, although the last meeting was conducted ahead of the latest data release.

 

Today – EZ final CPI, Canadian CPI, FOMC Minutes, ECB’s Panetta, Rehn, Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Bostic. Earnings from Lowe’s, Target, Cisco, L Brands, & Analog Devices.

 

Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+7.60%) rallied from under 19.00, yesterday to 22.75 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 67 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line into close yesterday. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.57, Daily ATR 2.45.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 20th May 2021.

 

Market Update May 20 – USD gets reprieve, BTC Bounces.

 

Market News Today – USD gets a reprieve from surprise FOMC minutes. Minutes showed “taper talk” was discussed much more than any participant held implied since the meeting. USDIndex back over 90.00. Equities closed down -0.29%, USA500 4115, despite robust earnings from Lowes & Target, CISCO disappointed, after hours. Asian markets follow lower. Overnight – AUD unemployment mixed, JPY machine Orders better, trade flat.

 

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), Target (beat), Lowes (beat) Cisco (miss). Still to come today – Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren.

 

EUR – down from 3-mth highs at 1.2240 under 1.2200 to 1.2185, JPY still struggles at 109.00, Cable back under 1.4200 and 14100 now. AUD back to 0.7750, CAD up from 6-year lows to 1.2100.

 

USOIL edges back up after yesterdays sell-off from under $62.50 to $63.50, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at $1875, again trades at $1874. Commodities cooled but remain robust. BTC sank under $30,000, (& lost -54% from peak last month) – back to $40k now. All from Musk & “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters.

 

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which have moved slightly higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate is down -0.2 bp at 1.67%. The reading is up from overnight lows though, as stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian part of the session and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. U.S. futures have moved sideways after a weaker close on Wall Street and against the background of the Fed minutes, which suggested that some policy markets have at least started to think about tapering “some point”. For now though the official line at central banks is that the uptick in inflation is transitory and ECB’s Schnabel, who predicted a German CPI rate of over 3% later in the year, said that inflation is likely to recede again in 2022.

 

Today – US Initial Job Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, SARB rate decision, ECB’s Lane, Lagarde, BoE’s Cunliffe, Fed’s Kaplan, Earnings from Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from under 0.6961, yesterday to over 0.7005 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 60 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line earlier. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0051.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 24th May 2021.

 

Market Update May 24 – Fear dominates.

 

Market News Today – Consolidation generally ruled the day in bonds and stocks after some big swings in recent sessions. The focus remains on the robust recovery, the rise in inflation, virus spikes and widening distribution of vaccines, and the varying dimensions of all left the markets in limbo.

 

Traders kept a close eye on volatile cryptocurrencies as China reiterated its commitment to curb mining and trading. Bitcoin was savaged and is currently at $36.5k, after it was hurt in part by China’s crackdown on mining and trading of the largest cryptocurrency as part of ongoing efforts to prevent speculative and financial risks. China’s intensifying efforts to cool raw material prices were also in the mix, as were ongoing inflation concerns, which in turn fuelled lingering taper talk.

 

 

Treasuries traded narrowly around unchanged levels with the 10-year yield either side of 1.625%. Wall Street continued to meander in back-and-forth action as investors mulled growth versus value positions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and US futures are also fractionally higher, after a pretty steady session in Asia.

 

In FX markets the Yen strengthened and USDJPY dropped back to 108.70, while the Dollar was pretty steady against most other currencies. The EUR and GBP both steadied at 1.2190 and 1.4150. The AUD traded near the lower end of its 5-week range as the country’s central bank is seen lagging global peers in tightening monetary policy despite a strong economic recovery. It is currently at 0.7735. USOIL meanwhile is trading at USD 64.05 per barrel.

 

Today – Whit Monday/Pentecost holidays in parts of the continent will likely weigh on activity. The only key events of the day are Gov. Kuroda and Gov. Bailey speeches.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.51%) declined from 109.00 to 108.70. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 38 pointing lower, MACD histogram turned negative but signal line holds positive, suggesting that there is still some negative bias in the near term. H1 ATR 0.0665, Daily ATR 0.5566.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 25th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 25 – Greenback drifts, Commodities Jump.

 

Market News Today – Wall Street was higher overnight as diminished worries over inflation and declining Treasury yields offered support. Big tech took the lead, boosting the USA100 over 1.5% higher, with the USA500 up over 1% and the USA30 0.7% firmer.

 

While it may be early to pull down the inflation red flags, the 10-year breakeven fell the most last week since September, indicating less concern over prices. Investors will look toward Friday’s release of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s favourite indicator.

 

Asian bond markets still benefited from soothing words on inflation from the Fed yesterday and yields dropped in Australia and New Zealand, while stock markets mostly moved higher, despite a mixed news flow that included further reports that Japan will extend the state of emergency on Covid developments and new local restrictions in Australia. The US State Department warning not to travel to Japan due to Covid may have some bearish repercussions on the markets in early trading. FTSE Russell will add China’s Xiaomi Corp to its global indexes next month.

• Fed’s Bostic said the economy has been more resilient than expected.(voter)
  
• Fed’s Bullard said he does not want to discuss adjusting policyduring the pandemic. (non-voter)
  
• Fed Governor Brainard confined her prepared remarks on digital currencies. (voter)
  
• UK: BoE members, including Governor Bailey, continued to argue that inflationary pressures are transitory in nature.
  

European News – In Europe, Germany had the second look at Q1 GDP, presenting that the Covid-19 hit on the German economy was bigger than expected in the first quarter. German Q1 GDP was revised slightly lower – to show contractions of -1.8% q/q, and -3.1% y/y (wda), versus -1.7% and -3.0% reported with the first release. Lockdown measures were the main reason for the sharp decline in activity, with restrictions severer than in France, Italy or Spain, at least initially.

 

In FX markets, there were reports of Yuan intervention from China. Presently the Yen is mostly weaker and USDJPY little changed at 108.60. EURUSD lifted to 1.2252 and Cable skyrocketed to 1.4200. USOIL is trading at USD 66.05 per barrel as Iran suggested that there are still open questions in negotiations over a deal to end US sanctions on its crude. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose the most in about a week. Bitcoin reversed to 38.8K and GOLD jumped to 1886 on EU open from 1872.

 

Today – The European data calendar today has Q1 trade data, along with the May Ifo business climate report. The UK has April public sector borrowing figures. The US calendar includes new home sales, home price data, and consumer confidence.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 26 – Yields fall further in opening trade.

 

Market News Today – Bonds were in the spotlight on Tuesday, posting solid gains, while stocks were mixed in a more back-and-forth trade. Dovish comments from central bankers, and especially Fedspeak, which continue to play down inflation, provided support, as did a strong 2-year Treasury auction. Wall Street stumbled from its opening rally and shed its gains after data suggested rising price pressures knocked consumer confidence lower. But ongoing dovish Fedspeak helped offset the selling.

 

In Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.04% respectively, with a 0.4% rise in the USA100 leading US futures higher. Strong survey data out of Germany confirmed a broadening and strengthening of the recovery, but in a way that backs the assertion that a temporary mismatch of supply and demand is the main reason for the rise in price pressures. ECB’s Stournaras said he doesn’t see the need for a change to the PEPP program.

 

The June 10-year Bund future is down -0.6 bp, which suggests bonds will get a bid in early trade, after Fed officials once again moved to calm taper concerns and inflation jitters by re-iterating that the rise in prices will prove temporary.

 

Any initial demand for bonds may quickly fizzle out, especially after the RBNZ projections reminded markets that the next move at central banks will almost certainly result in tighter policies. RBNZ left policy unchanged, as expected.

 

In FX markets, the Yen and US Dollar struggled, while the NZD rallied as yields jumped higher. USDJPY is currently little changed at 108.76. Both EUR and GBP moved higher against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2259 and Cable at 1.4161. USOIL is trading at USD 66.04 per barrel, as traders weigh expectations of improving demand in the US against the possibility of new supply from Iran. Bitcoin gained 2.39% to $39,314.81 despite China’s northern region of Inner Mongolia escalating a campaign against cryptocurrency mining on Tuesday, days after Beijing vowed to crack down on bitcoin mining and trading. Gold is at $1907.

 

Today – The calendar is pretty empty today, with only some national business confidence readings out of France, before the Eurozone ESI report tomorrow and FOMC Quarles speaking, and Crude Inventories.

 

Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+1.28%) rallied to 79.55 after RBNZ, breaking 79.41 which was the Resistance level maintained since March 2018. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 82 but still pointing right, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher while Stochs rising despite reaching OB at 93. The OB condition of both RSI and Stochs could alert the need of consolidation or pullback, but this is not the case so far. H1 ATR 0.1596, Daily ATR 0.6699.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 27th May 2021.

 

EURUSD: Improving outlook with downside risks.

 

Central bankers continue to do their best to keep tapering concerns at bay, but while ECB’s de Cos added to the dovish voices out of the Eurozone this week, Bundesbank President Weidmann and centrist Executive Board member Schnabel are due to speak this afternoon and likely to present a more balanced view. A compromise for the June meeting could be a scaled back monthly purchase target within an unchanged PEPP framework and overall QE target, which would effectively mirror the BoE’s action. Against that background the air for Eurozone bonds as well as stocks may be getting thinner at these levels as markets look to US data releases. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.

 

EURUSD has drifted off highs as markets anticipate a batch of US economic data releases today and tomorrow, including key price data. The Euro has lately found an underpinning from the improving outlook in the Eurozone economy, with the recent wave of Covid infections having been quelled and the EU having finally got its act together with its vaccination program. As for the US inflation situation, the prevailing dominant view is that price pressures will abate in Q3, as year-on-year base effects narrow and supply bottlenecks are ironed out, which — for now at least — is keeping shorter-dated Treasury yields anchored at low levels, with the Fed expected to hold out on ZIRP and QE.

 

The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows that market positioning is implying a probability for a 25 bp Fed hike by year-end of just 9%, having ebbed back from the 11% odds that were being implied last week.

 

EURUSD futures are implying a first 25 bp hike in 2023, about a year ahead of what the Fed has been signalling. EURUSD is holding higher above the 20-day EMA. However, the market has been trading in a horizontal trajectory the past 8 days within the upper boundary of the 1.2165 Resistance and the lower immediate boundary of the 1.2157 Support. The RSI is sloping sideways above the 50 level, while the stochastic is heading downwards after the negative cross within the %K and %D lines. MACD lines held well above zero, presenting along with RSI an overall bullish outlook but a neutral outlook in the near-term.

 

However the key Support level for the asset is 1.2135, which is the confluence of the 20-Day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level. If the price breaks this bottom, it could meet the 50-day SMA and the 1.2000-1.2050 area. Bullish movements could open the way for the pair to test the year’s peak and even the multi-year highs at 1.2460-1.2500, if the bulls manage to successfully surpass 1.2250 (FE 61.8%).

 

In conclusion, EURUSD is neutral in the near term but is looking neutral to bearish in the short-term outlook.

 

Nevertheless, as stated in our latest post, EURUSD’s prevailing upside bias seems likely to sustain so long as markets continue to buy-in to the Fed’s narrative, but would see downside risk should Fed tapering start to look more inevitable. This would be when the US versus Eurozone growth differential is matched by a Fed versus ECB tightening expectations differential, which would be the circumstance for the directional bias of EURUSD to shift to the downside.

 

It is notable that the doves on the governing council have lately been quiet about the ascent of the Euro, despite the tightening effect via real interest rates. In fact ECB’s Panetta said just yesterday that the recent rise in the Euro could, if sustained, “weaken inflationary pressures.” Given the outsized fiscal stimulus and higher growth trajectory in the US, the bigger-picture risk for EURUSD is to the downside.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

 

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 28th May 2021.

 

Market Update – May 28 – US Inflation & Stimulus in focus.

 

Market News Today – Treasuries slumped after news President Biden will offer a $6 tln spending plan on Friday. Gilts led a sell off in EGBs yesterday after hawkish leaning comments from BoE’s Vlieghe hinted at the possibility of an early rate hike. Wall Street was generally firmer on reflation trades and the stimulus news, though the major indexes also lost altitude into the close as the administration also indicated it wanted to make the capital gains tax increase retroactive to April. As for the data, the mixed numbers didn’t provided any clear directional clues. The BoJ is reportedly mulling an extension of the pandemic relief program as Japan prepares to extend its state of emergency. Stock markets at least moved broadly higher across the Asia-Pacific region. JPN225 jumped 2.1%, at 29,127.

 

Today, stock markets are not really spooked and the GER30 and UK100 are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures. In the meantime, German import prices were released and jumped 10.3% y/y in April, the highest reading since December 2010 and up from 6.9% y/y in the previous month. Base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, with oil prices up nearly 200%, prices for mineral oil products nearly 80% and natural gas up nearly 60%.

 

In FX markets, NZD eased across the board, while USD and Yen were sought. NZDUSD is at 0.7240 (200-period EMA). Both EUR and GBP moved lower against the Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2175 and Cable at 1.4105. USOIL rallied to $67.16. Gold is at $1889.30 ahead of today’s data.

 

Today: Local data releases today are likely to support the recovery story, with Eurozone ESI economic confidence, and key US data in the PM session, i.e. PCE, Michigan Index and Good Trade Balance. The G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and central bankers may also attract some attention.

 

Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT – NZDUSD -0.65%) NZDUSD dipped to 0.7240. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 31 and still sloping, MACD histogram & signal line turned below zero. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0069.

 

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

 

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