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  • #61

    Date : 15th June 2021.

    Market Update – June 15 – Equities at record highs.


    Market News Today – US Markets closed at record highs (USA500 4255) and Asian stocks followed but closed mixed after key markets returned after long weekend. Dollar holds on to gains (USDIndex 90.40). EURUSD (1.2125) and Cable (1.4115) little changed. JPY holds the break of 110.00. Yields off 3-mth lows and up to recover 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $71.35 before cooling under $71.00 and the Gold collapse spiked as low as $1845, back to $1865 now. Copper off -2% yesterday too. Overnight – AUD Housing inflation steeper than expected, Bailey talked digital currencies & US passed the grim 600k Covid deaths milestone. Strong UK Jobs data, Claims, Earnings and Unemployment all beat expectations.

    Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday’s (18:00 GMT) FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not expected to happen until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin Wednesday after NATO summit.

    European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, US futures are posting gains of around 0.1%, after another record on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to be putting inflation concerns aside for now although mutterings that there could be more lasting shifts in prices are getting louder. For now though the focus is on the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The U.K. pushed out the date for the full lifting of Covid restrictions to July 19.

    Today – Empire State Manu. PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, ECB’s Lane, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Government supply from the UK, Germany & US.

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) USDNZD (+0.26%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, at 0.7115 and a floor yesterday at 0.7130, to move over 0.7150 and clear of the 20-hr MA. Next resistance 0.7180. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 58 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising and testing 0 line. H1 ATR 0.00072, Daily ATR 0.0060.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Comment


    • #62

      Date : 16th June 2021.

      Market Update – June 16 – FX Markets waiting for FOMC.


      Market News Today – US Markets closed down from new ATH’s (USA500 -8.5 4246) Mixed US data BIG miss for Retail Sales but PPI was stronger than expected. Dollar awaits FOMC – FX markets moribund. (USDIndex 90.44, EURUSD 1.2125, and Cable 1.4090. JPY holds the break of 110.00 & Yields the break of 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $72.50 following API inventory drawdowns. Gold dipped to $1850 and back to $1860 now. Biggest move – VIX.F rallied over 13% to 19.42. OvernightJPY data weaker than expected but a huge jump in Exports to a 41 year high. – UK Inflation (2.1%)- stronger than expected following big rise in jobs data yesterday.

      European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are U.S. futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has moved up 0.5 bp to 1.497%, as markets wait for the FOMC announcement today. The big question will be whether the Fed signals that it is starting to think about tapering and investors are likely to trade cautiously into the event. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.019% and 0.153% respectively. US futures narrowly mixed, with the Nasdaq future outperforming and up 0.5%.

      Today – Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Decision and Fed Chair Powell, US-Russia Summit, UK Economic Update (Treasury), ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos

      Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+12.5%) gapped on open to 19.42 following a test of the pre-pandemic low on Monday at 16.00. Closed yesterday at 17.17. Next resistance 20.00, support 20-day MA at 18.65. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB and flat at 78, MACD signal line and histogram rising and significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.3300 Daily ATR 1.14.

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

      Stuart Cowell
      Head Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer:
      This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Comment


      • #63

        Date : 17th June 2021.

        Market Update – June 17 – BIG Surprise from the FOMC Dots.


        Market News Today – FED no rate change and $120bn bond buying to continue. BUT BIG hawkish surprise with plans for 2 x 0.25% rate rises in 2023 (13/18 votes), it had been 2024 and even 7/18 see rate rises in 2022. Statement increased 2021 growth to 7% from 6.5%, and inflation to 3.4% from 2.4% 3 months ago. “risks to the economic outlook remain“, rising inflation was “largely reflecting transitory factors”, recovery “significantly” dependent upon the next steps of the virus. We will taper when economy has reached “substantial further progress” will do what we can to “avoid a market reaction”. Next meeting July 27/28.
        • USD (91.43), Yields (1.57%) and the VIX (20.46) all rallied.
        • Stocks (-0.54%), Commodities(-2.0%+), EM currencies & Oil($71.10) all sank.
        Biden-Putin – both talked tough and of a “constructive” first Summit. The thorny issues of Nuclear Weapons, (my arsenal is bigger than yours) Cybersecurity (leave us alone, we never touched you) Geopolitics (where you go we will follow) were all on the agenda.

        OvernightBig beats for AUD Jobs (115.2 k vs 30.5K) & Unemployment (5.1% vs 5.5%) & NZD GDP (1.65% vs 0.5%) data.

        European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -63 ticks in catch up trade, while Treasuries have started to stabilise after the post-FOMC sell off. The slightly more hawkish stance at the Fed and stellar data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight seems to signal that markets need to prepare for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.3% and -0.4% respectively, US futures are also under pressure, after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight and a lower close on Wall Street. ECB’s Lane – “don’t be premature with assumptions over PEPP tapering” September meeting important but “a lot of data still to to come” before December.

        Today – Norges Bank, SNB and CBRT rate decisions, Eurozone CPI (final), US Weekly Claims, Philly Fed, CB Leading Index & ECB’s Elderson.

        Biggest Mover post FED @ (06:30 GMT) XAGUSD (-2.51%) turned lower again, ahead of FED after rejecting 27.80. Moved significantly below 27.00 to test of 26.56 in immediate aftermath, closed at 26.95. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 30.35 and testing OB zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.210 Daily ATR 0.603.

        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

        Stuart Cowell
        Head Market Analyst
        HotForex

        Disclaimer:
        This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

        Comment


        • #64

          Date : 18th June 2021.

          Market Update – June 18 – The FED still dominates.


          Market News TodayUSD holds on to gains (USDIndex test 92.00) US Equities mixed – (USA100 +0.87% & new ATH, USA30 -0.62%). BoJ left policy unchanged and stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy setting & extended COVID funding. JPY Inflation came in better than expected to with the CORE reading turning positive (just) for the first time since April 2020. Asian shares up but closing lower for the week. Round Number Friday – EUR down to1.1900, JPY 110.00 and Cable 1.3900. 10 yr Yields 1.51% but the spreads between US Corporate debt and US Government debt is at a 10-year low¹ – and could explain the tech rally yesterday following the Hawkish FED. Gold dived to $1770 (open the week at $1875; -5.6%) trades at $1785 now. USOil

          Overnight – Big beat for German PPI (1.5% vs 0.7%, & 0.8% prev.) and big miss for UK Retail Sales (-1.4% vs 1.5%, & prev: 9.2%)

          European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower and in cash markets Eurozone bonds are also finding some support, although the U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 0.7 bp to 1.51% overnight. Stocks traded narrowly mixed across Asia and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also little changed, while US futures are slightly higher, led by a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ. With growth stabilising the tide is slowly turning, although it is clear that central banks will be taking a very, very cautious approach on tapering, with policy set to remain extremely accommodative for a long time to come. It seems unlikely that the BoE will break the line when it meets next week. – Action Economics

          Today – Little new news today – EU Econ Ministers meeting & Fed’s Kashkari, its also Quadruple Witching Friday (Quarterly Index & Stock Options and Futures Contracts all expire – 3rd Friday of the Quarter)

          Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.59%) turned lower again, has been under 20-day moving average since June 3 from 78.76. Breached 78.00 yesterday and 77.00 today. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 24 & OB, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.620.

          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

          Stuart Cowell
          Head Market Analyst
          HotForex

          Disclaimer:
          This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

          Comment


          • #65
            Date : 21st June 2021.

            Market Update – June 21 – USD remains Bid, Equities and Yields lower.


            Market News TodayUSD holds onto gains from last week. USDIndex over 92.00. US Equities lost over 1.5% (USA500 -55pts to 4166 (-1.31%), Dow -1.58%) & Asian markets (save China) very weak (Nikkei -3.3%). US 10 yr yields @ 1.39% (4 week low) & 30yr yields under 2% (4 mth low). JPY, AUD & NZD tad stronger to open. EUR down to 1.1875, JPY 110.00 & Cable 1.3815. Gold dived to $1760 on Friday back to $1778 now. USOil spiked down to $69.80 on Friday back to $72.00 now, over the weekend Iranian Nuclear talks broke down & Iran elected a very hardliner new president. US Senate coming together on much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure – Biden unhappy. Bullard talked of tapering & Kashkari of no rate rises until 2024.

            Week Ahead – BOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.

            European Open – Markets continue to adjust the changed rate outlook, with the hawkish turn at the Fed weighing on shorter dating bonds, while bringing down rates at the long end. The September 10-year Bund future is up 33 ticks, US futures are outperforming. Reflation trades are being unwound and while the actual lift off in rates is still a long way off, even in the US, it is clear that the period of ever rising monetary support is coming to an end. Stocks are struggling in this environment and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.9% and -0.7% respectively. US futures are also in the red, after Japanese markets led a sell off overnight.

            Today – ECB weekly bond purchases, Williams, Bullard, Kaplan and ECB’s Lagarde

            Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.51%) recovered from last weeks sell-off (0.71500.6925) pushed to 0.6972 earlier, breaking 20Hr MA. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 50 and starting to rise but remains from neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0014 Daily ATR 0.0071.

            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

            Stuart Cowell
            Head Market Analyst
            HotForex

            Disclaimer:
            This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

            Comment


            • #66
              Date : 22nd June 2021.

              Market Update – June 22 – Signs of Volatility.


              Market News Today – Volatility back – Equities rebound, USD slips from recent highs but USDIndex holds at 92.00. US Equities recover (USA500 +58pts to 4224 (+1.40%), Asian markets also recover. US 10 yr yields bounce too; 1.49%. EUR under 1.1900, from 1.1920, JPY up to 110.50 & Cable back to 1.3900. Gold holds at 1780, USOil spiked to $73.80 (Oct 2018 high). UKOil over $75.00 and April 2019 high) on the back of the Iranian news, OPEC still not talking production increases and growing global demand. Biden making positive noises over much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure Bill.

              CB-Speak Powell at sub-committee inflation has “increased notably” labor market “continue to improve,” Williams, “US economy hasn’t improved enough, inflation will hit 3%” Bullard “strong labor market” as the country’s (GDP) is observing a growth of almost 7%. Lagarde the ECB will keep a “very close eye on wage growth” she was also more optimistic on the outlook.

              Week AheadBOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress 18:00 GMT Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.

              European Open – Sep 10-year Bund future down 8 ticks, pretty much matching Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures both up 0.3% & US futures also slightly higher after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. Markets are getting over the Fed’s hawkish tilt, as officials continue to stress that inflation will be transitory, suggesting that any tapering will be very gradual and dependent on economic developments.

              Today – EUR Consumer Confidence (Flash) & US Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Powell, Daly, Mester, ECB’s Lane & Schnabel.

              Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.35%) yesterday’s rally from 0.7475 stalled at 0.7545 and has declined to 0.7520 today. Under PP and 20Hr MA. Next support 0.7500 and S1 at 0.7494. Faster MAs moved lower, RSI 46 and neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but weak break of 0 line. Stochs OS since 20Ma break. H1 ATR 0.0010 Daily ATR 0.0065.

              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

              Stuart Cowell
              Head Market Analyst
              HotForex

              Disclaimer:
              This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

              Comment


              • #67
                Can I get your daily analysis straight into the trading platform or via email? I don't the newsletter with these market updates.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by machete View Post
                  Can I get your daily analysis straight into the trading platform or via email? I don't the newsletter with these market updates.

                  Yes, you can. visit HF official analysis website subscribe. Search "hotforex analysis " this in google

                  Comment


                  • #69

                    Date : 23rd June 2021.

                    Market Update – June 23 – Dollar Dips & Equities Stronger post Powell.


                    Market News TodayEquities rebound (USA100 +0.79% to new ATH) & USD slips again (USDIndex 91.80). Catalyst was Powell comments “inflation alone would not be enough to prompt rate rises” “we will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.” Asian markets also recovered, AUD & JPY PMIs missed expectations. US 10 yr yields fell as USD cooled bounce again too; 1.47%. EUR holds over 1.1900 at 1.1925, JPY up again to 110.80 & Cable (5 years since Brexit vote today) up to 1.3945. Gold rotates at $1780, USOil down from Monday’s spike to $73.80 but holds over $72.00 as $100 Brent gossip swirls¹ & OPEC tests the waters on production increases.

                    CB-Speak Daly said bank was right to talk about slowing the pace of asset purchases, but economy is “not yet here” for such a decision, & even talk of changing rates is not on the table. Officials are looking to Fall data to get more clarity on the status of the economy & its developments. Inflation could approach 3% in the near future & the data is expected to remain volatile. Mester – inflation expectations have risen, but it has not yet reached an alarming level – it will hit between 3% to 3.5%, but after that it will drop to the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target. A better picture of the labor force will be seen in September, after schools reopen & increased unemployment benefits end.

                    European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, as are US futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.019% and -0.050% respectively, while US futures are fractionally higher, after Fed Chairman Powell managed to sooth nerves yesterday with calming words on the rate outlook and by reiterating that inflation pressures will be transitory.

                    Today EZ, UK and US PMIs (Flash), ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos; Fed’s Bowman, Bostic, Rosengren, and supply from Germany and the US.

                    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.29%) First down day in 9 yesterday to close at 1.9845. Rallied on open over PP and 50Hr MA (1.9985) to 1.9900. Next resistance R1 1.9931. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 55 but neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising weakly & remain below 0 line. Stochs declined from OB & now neutral. H1 ATR 0.0023 Daily ATR 0.0122.

                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                    Stuart Cowell
                    Head Market Analyst
                    HotForex

                    Disclaimer:
                    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                    Comment


                    • #70

                      Date : 24th June 2021.

                      Market Update – June 24 – Tepid Markets ahead of big data day.


                      Market News Today – Sideways Wednesday into tepid Thursday, ahead of a busy day. USA100 +0.13% to new ATH again, TSLA +5%, Dow & S&P500 flat, USD dips & recovers, USDIndex 91.80. Global PMIs overall positive (partic. Manu.) New Home Sales big miss with prices at record highs. Overnight Asian markets also tepid. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1925, JPY spiked to 111.10 (now 110.85) & Cable spiked to 1.4000 now down to 1.3960. Gold rotates at $1775, USOil spiked to $73.25 after inventories drawdown was twice as large as expected. Holds over $72.60 now. Much reduced (1.5 tn) bipartisan Infrastructure plan “agreed” & being presented to Biden today, possible re-start of Iran nuclear talks next week. Kaplan & Bostic both hawkish & expecting Inflation to “stick”.

                      European Open – September 10-year Bund future fractionally higher, US futures also little changed, while in cash markets US 10-yr rate has lifted 0.5 bp to 1.49%. DAX & FTSE 100 futures marginally higher, US futures slightly outperforming, but overall moves have been very tepid so far.

                      Today – German Ifo, US Initial/Continued Jobless Claims, GDP (Final, Q1), Durable Goods and New Zealand Trade Balance, BoE Rate Decision, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Bostic, Bullard, Harker, Kaplan; ECB’s Schnabel, Panetta, and supply from the US

                      Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.23%) Day 4 of strong rebound from 0.6395 close on Friday. rallied to 0.6485 (R1) today. R2 sits at 0.6505. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 67 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 0.0006 Daily ATR 0.0045.

                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                      Stuart Cowell
                      Head Market Analyst
                      HotForex

                      Disclaimer:
                      This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Date : 25th June 2021.

                        Market Update – June 25 – USD slips, Stocks at new all-time highs.


                        Market News TodayDollar a tad weaker, but holds onto gains, USDIndex 91.80, USA100 & 500 at ATHs. Agreed $1.2 tn Infrastructure plan lifts sentiment. However, mixed US data yesterday, Claims missed, GDP confirmed at 6.4% & Durable Goods missed. All US Banks passed stress tests late in the day. BoE – no change & no hawkish surprises but looks like tapering measures will start after the summer. GBP hit. Overnight Asian markets also bid, NZD bounces and JPY weakest. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1950, JPY under 111.00 to 110.75 & Cable tests under 1.3900 now back to 1.3925. Gold still rotates at $1780/75, USOil Holds over $72.50 now.

                        European OpenGerman GfK consumer confidence much better than expected at -0.3 vs -6.9 in the previous month. The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, as are US futures. Gilts led a rally in EGBs yesterday after the BoE affirmed its accommodative policy stance, but there could be a slight pullback as markets continue to digest the statement. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures.

                        Today US PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Fed’s Williams, Rosengren, Mester, Kashkari; ECB’s de Cos.

                        Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.25%) Rallied from test of 200HR MA yesterday at 0.7745. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 65.7 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 0.0007 Daily ATR 0.0045.

                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                        Stuart Cowell
                        Head Market Analyst
                        HotForex

                        Disclaimer:
                        This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Date : 28th June 2021.

                          Market Update – June 28 – Fear is back even in Summer.


                          Wall Street was mixed on Friday, with the USA30 outperforming as reflation trades are back on. Supporting the rally was a blowout earnings report from Nike. The company saw record quarterly US sales, and beat on the bottom line as well, seeing the USA30 member surge to all-time highs, gaining over 15%. The USA500 closed at record highs, adding 0.34%, up 14 points to 4,281. Yields pushed higher last week, as growth optimism dominated, but investors are keeping a weary eye on virus developments amid the emergence of new more infectious strains.

                          Today: It was a very slow start to the week for equities, with markets across the Asia-Pacific region hardly moving as investors weighed Covid developments and the outlook for central bank policy. The 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged at 1.5%. Equity markets have traded narrowly mixed, as a new rise in Covid-19 infections across Asia and concern over more potent strains weighed on sentiment. In Malaysia the nationwide lockdown was extended, while Greater Sydney was put under stricter restrictions in a bid to contain outbreaks. In Hong Kong the morning session was cancelled thanks to a rain storm warning. BoJ was confident of recovery at June meeting the summary of discussions showed. The sense was that accelerating vaccination programs would prop up the economy. At the same time inflation pressures were still judged to be benign given the fragile recovery.

                          Forex Market: JPN225 is currently down -0.1%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% at the moment and US futures are posting similar gains. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar drifted lower, USDJPY dropped to 110.61 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound strengthened across the board and cable is off last week’s lows, currently at 1.3909. The USOIL topped tto $73.69. Gold prices slipped to a 1-week low on Monday, weighed down by a bounce in the dollar and mixed signals from the FED on monetary policy tightening despite tame inflation data.

                          Monday’s Calendar Fed’s Williams, Quarles and ECB’s Panetta along with Labor data and Retail Trade fom Japan.

                          Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.34%) Rallied to the upper range level at 1785.77. Faster MAs currently flattened, RSI 54 and slipping, MACD signal line and histogram close to 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 3.4457, Daily ATR 27.3871.

                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                          Andria Pichidi
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex

                          Disclaimer:
                          This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Date : 29th June 2021.

                            Market Update – June 29 – High Valuations, End of Quarter, Caution.


                            Sentiment remains cautious and stocks under pressure, but Treasury yields tumbled lower on the day, recovering all of last week’s losses and then some. The 10- and 30-year yields fell over 5 bps to the 1.4698% and 2.0857% areas, respectively, on the day, with the break in key technical levels of 1.50% and 2.10% supporting the richening. Concern about the spread of the more infectious Delta variant of the virus is weighing on confidence as governments try to limit the impact.

                            Equities remain mixed
                            , with the USA100 holding in record territory, and keeping the bulk of its gains. The USA500 continues to idle on either side of unchanged, while the USA30 underperforms, losing over 200 points early on, then recovering slightly in afternoon trade. The USA30 components Chevron off over -3% as oil prices faded, while Boeing shed -3% after being told certification of its new long range aircraft would not come until at least 2023. The energy and financial sectors were the biggest laggards, while utilities and tech paced winning sectors.

                            Valuations remain a question for further stock market gains, with the USA500 P/E ratio the highest in over 10-years.

                            The charts that matter
                            “Significant long-term charts with historical price data back to 1950 remain very powerful and important.
                            1. The 2 first weeks of July are the best weeks of the year
                            2. “we are here” – USA500 is just starting if you look at the seasonality pattern since 1985
                            3. After the 2 first weeks of July, USA500 and Russell tend to “chill”, while NDX continues moving higher, but above all, note the USA100 pattern starting now
                            4. Exposure in FAANMGs is close to record lows
                            5. Tech’s range break out has been extremely powerful, and the candle today shows just how strong this momentum remains”
                            Forex Market: EURUSD is little changed at 1.1907. The Australian and NZ Dollars weaken for second day on low risk appetite, USDJPY steadied to 110.10-60 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound declines further with Cable to 1.3857. Gold prices edged lower as USDIndex hovers below 2-month high.

                            USOIL slid to 3-session lows of $72.63 after printing new trend highs of $74.45 in Asia. The move lower was linked to concerns over rising Covid cases in many parts of Asia, including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which prompted some profit taking from 32-month highs. In addition, long positions may be cut ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, where expectations are for an announced production increase, beginning in August.

                            Tuesday’s Calendar – Data releases today include Eurozone ESI economic confidence, German June HICP and UK lending data, while US Consumer confidence is also due, but virus headlines will likely dominate.

                            Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 (+0.34%) dipped by more than 0.44% from 34,525 to 34,172 low. Faster MAs and RSI are currently flattened,while MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, all suggesting that the short term decline run out of steam and the asset is consolidating for the time being.

                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex

                            Disclaimer:
                            This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Date : 30th June 2021.

                              Market Update – June 30 – Gold at its worst monthly drop.


                              Jitters over the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant seem to be receding and Treasury yields have moved higher overnight, as equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region gained after US shares touched record highs yesterday, but pared gains into the close.

                              Hopes that vaccines will be effective mean investors are sticking with the recovery story after strong US data yesterday boosted economic optimism.

                              JPN225 is currently down by 0.13%, with a disappointing contraction in industrial production weighing on sentiment. China official PMI readings also eased, however, the slowing in the pace of expansion is not a surprise given supply chain disruptions around the world, though the data continued to suggest China’s recovery remains on pace. Cyclicals rallied, while Bank stocks were mostly higher following announced dividend increases and stock buybacks. Improved consumer confidence and a year over year surge in home prices supported equities at the margins. Wall Street closed slightly higher yesterday, with indexes touching new highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are also fractionally higher.

                              UK Q1 GDP revised down to -1.6% q/q in the final reading, from -1.5% q/q previously. The annual rate was confirmed at -6.1% y/y. Private consumption corrected -4.6% q/q, reflecting mainly the impact of a relatively strict lockdown that quarter. Government spending rose 1.5% q/q, while exports slumped -6.1% and imports -13.5%. Investment contracted less than initially feared, but was still down -1.7% q/q, although at this point and with the economy heading for a full re-opening in July and already pretty much on track for a strong rebound thanks to vaccination programs, the Q1 number doesn’t really change the overall picture or outlook.

                              Forex Market: USDJPY is at 110.46, after the Dollar firmed on haven demand. The Australian and NZ Dollars are under pressure so far, USDJPY has steadied above 110.40 while the EUR steadied above 1.1890. The Pound declined to 1.3810 lows and is currently settled at the 1.3850 area. USOIL meanwhile lifted to USD 73.42 per barrel after an industry report showed US crude stockpiles fell last week, overriding trader and investor concerns about transportation curbs in some countries as COVID-19 cases surge. Gold is down 7.8% so far this month, and heading for its worst monthly drop since November 2016.

                              Today’s Calendar – Markets are also keeping a close eye on signals from central banks and in particular the Fed, after strong consumer confidence readings out of the US yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on German jobless numbers and of course the preliminary reading for Eurozone June HICP, Canadian GDP and US ADP employment change.

                              Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD retests the 1,3800 area for a 2nd day in a row wıth faster MAs bullishly crossed and RSI at 37 and pointing lower. MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, while Stochastic turned below OS barrier, all suggesting that the short term decline continues.

                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                              Andria Pichidi
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex

                              Disclaimer:
                              This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Date : 2nd July 2021.

                                Market Update – July 02.


                                Wall Street was narrowly mixed again overnight, as investors sat on their hands ahead of the upcoming June jobs report. Data on ISM manufacturing, jobless claims, and construction spending was ignored in favor of the more crucial employment numbers on the horizon.
                                Also yesterday, according to FT, the world’s leading economies have signed up to a plan to force multinational companies to pay a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15% following intense negotiations in Paris at the OECD. The historic agreement among 130 countries will ensure the largest companies, including Big Tech, pay at least $100bn a year more in taxes, with more of that money going to the countries where they do most of their business.

                                The USA500 did manage another record high, with the USA30 in the green too as value shares were favored. The USA100 was largely flat. Stock markets in Japan and Australia managed to move slightly higher, though, while China bourses sold off with some commentators suggesting that the conclusion of the centennial celebrations for the Communist Party meant increased risks for markets.

                                In Europe, core exchanges rose, with the UK100 adding 1.25%, and the GER30 rallying 0.47%. Comments from ECB’s Lagarde suggesting that the current cap on dividends and share buybacks for banks could be lifted at the end of September helped underpin sentiment. Also:
                                • Fed’s Harker (non-voter) backs tapering.
                                • ECB’s Weidmann backs symmetrical inflation target for the ECB.
                                Dovish comments from BoE’s Bailey, who stuck to the view that inflation will be transitory, added support, although they didn’t prevent Gilts from underperforming versus Bunds, with the former up 1.4 bps to 0.728%, and the latter 0.7 bps higher at -0.203%. Hopes that the impact of the rapidly spreading Delta variant won’t prevent the projected re-opening of holiday travel, while also keeping central banks in supportive mode, helped peripheral stock and bond markets.

                                Forex Market: USDIndex edged up to 92.60, and USDJPY is at 111.65, while the USOIL future is at $75.22per barrel. The Australian and NZ Dollars hold at Q4 2020 lows, while the EUR slipped to 1.1834 from 1.1888. Gold sustains gains at the 1779 area.

                                As Soc Gen accurately notes, US 2y rates are driving the Dollar. “The challenge for the FX market is that with no rate on the cards for over 12 months, expectations about what the Fed will do are bound to move around with each and every major economic statistic. All eyes, then, are on payroll data and if they come in strong, the dollar bears are going to get squeezed.”

                                Today’s Calendar ECB’s Lagarde is scheduled to speak today, but likely to repeat the familiar line that the crisis is not over and support is still necessary. At the same time we will see US labor market data.

                                US nonfarm payrolls preview: nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 550k in June following increases of 559k in May and 278k in April as there continues to be a big gap between the strength in the recovery and the record high in job openings against the relatively slow return of workers amid various headwinds. We’re also forecasting a 35k jump in factory jobs. The work-week should hold steady at 34.9 while hours worked picks up 0.4%. The unemployment rate is seen dipping to 5.6%. Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% as minimum wage workers have been slow to come back. However, the y/y wage gain should surge to 3.5% from 2.0%, with a big boost from base effects.



                                Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR(+0.54%) extending highs for 2 days in a row, above the June high and the 50% retracement level since the February downleg. MACD lines and RSI are positively configured.

                                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex

                                Disclaimer:
                                This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                                Comment

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