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  1. #171
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    Date : 19th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Expectations that global central banks will add further stimulus to underpin the global economy and fresh hopes that global trade tensions will be resolved through talks after all underpinned stock markets during the Asian session.

    * US President Trump tweeted yesterday that he will meet China’s President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting, which helped to lift CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 1.96% and 1.50% respectively.

    * Bond markets closed below highs yesterday and the gains are likely to erode further today as the focus shifts to the FOMC announcement.

    * GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly in the red with profit taking and renewed caution capping the room for further gains.

    * German PPI data at the start of the session came in lower than anticipated.

    * The WTI future benefited from fresh trade talk hopes and is trading marginally above the USD 54 per barrel mark.

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * USDJPY has drifted moderately lower, to levels around 108.26. The dip reflects a pick up in demand for the Yen. Overall, directional impulse has been limited in forex markets with participants hunkered down ahead of the Fed policy announcement later on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the Fed, where there is risk of disappointment given the level of expectation for a strong dovish guidance. USDJPY is presently sitting near the midway of a choppy sideways range that’s been unfolding for nearly 3 weeks now. The range over this time has been 107.81 – 108.80. Support comes in at 108.00-06.

    * USDCAD – The Canadian dollar, buoyed by a 4.5%-plus rally in Oil prices over the last day, has seen some moderate outperformance, which has taken USDCAD to a 3-session low at 1.3365. Underpinning Oil prices (aside from Mideast geopolitics) and equity markets have been hopes for a strongly dovish signal from the Fed today, yesterday’s dovish shift by the ECB chief, and news that President Trump will be meeting with President Xi at the upcoming G20, and that ministerial-level trade negotiations will be recommencing. For the pair, Support holds at 1.3354 and 1.3336, while Resistance is at 1.3390-1.3400.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.

    * Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.

    * Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.

    * Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #172
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    Date : 20th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Stock markets continued to rally in Asia, underpinned by hopes of further easing and progress on the trade front at the G-20 meeting and European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures.

    * The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, but highlighted downside risks, especially for overseas economies.

    * Hopes of further central bank stimulus and progress on the trade front at the G20 meeting meanwhile are keeping stock markets underpinned and Nikkei and Topix moved up 0.32% and 0.64% respectively.

    * The Dollar has rotated lower after the Fed.

    * FOMC held rates steady as expected, but shifted to an unambiguously dovish gear, noting that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased” while issuing a larger than expected downgrade in the dots as Chairman Powell refrained from using “transitory” to describe low inflation, marking a downshift in the inflation view.

    * Some follow-through Dollar selling looks likely even in the London interbank market though increasingly dovish arguments at the ECB and other major central banks should curtail the US currency’s downside potential.

    * The WTI future is 54.67 trading at USD 54.57 per barrel.

    * In Europe, the BoE is also widely expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged, but markets will be looking for signs that the BoE will at least drop the tightening bias as the global backdrop deteriorates

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * EURUSD printed 1.1283 highs, up from opening lows of 1.1225. The modest rally has been attributed to position adjustments ahead and post the FOMC announcement. Next Resistance for the asset holdws at 1.1288 and the round 1.1300. Support is set at 1.1245-1.1254.

    * USDCAD – The Canadian Dollar, was the biggest mover, dropping by nearly 1% in making a four-month low at 1.3223. A strong rally in oil prices has catalysed a strong bid for the Canadian dollar. The WTI crude prices are up by nearly 3% since the Fed’s announcement, and are up by 5.7% from week-ago levels. Hence since the pair has broke the Support at Friday’s low ,the strong bullish mix of developments for CAD, opens the doors towards February-March lows, between the 1.3060-1.3140 area. Immediate Support meanwhile, is set at the round 1.3200 level.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK sales are expected to slip -0.5% in May, with a big yearly slip at 2.7%, following a 5.2% figure for the April.

    * Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

    * Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to fall to 12.0 in June from 17.8 in May, versus a 2-year low of 3.7 in March. The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 11.0 in June from 16.6 in May, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #173
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    Date : 21st June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Thursday’s rally on Wall Street failed to boost Asian markets, which struggled as the impact of easing hopes following dovish comments from Fed, BoJ and ECB faded and trade angst returned.

    * US-Iran tensions also weighed on sentiment. The New York Times reported that US President Trump had actually approved military strikes after Iran shot down a US military drone, but pulled back from launching the attacks.

    * The Nikkei fell back -0.8%, although the Shanghai Comp still managed a gain of 0.5% amid lingering hopes of progress on US-Sino trade talks ahead of the leaders meeting at the sidelines of the G-20 meeting next week.

    * The USA500 managed a record high yesterday as markets position for rate cuts, but US futures are slightly in the red after a cautious session in Asia and GER30 futures are also down.
    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * USOIL advanced as much as 6%, up over $3, at June highs of $57.37. The downing of a US drone in the Persian Gulf got the rally rolling, with gains since coming following a Trump tweet, which just said “Iran made a very big mistake!”Following the tweet, prices moved up from near $56.20 to session highs. Immediate Support today hold at $56.00, while on the break of it 55.20 could be retested. On the flipside, Resistance $58.50-59.00 as stated in our post yesterday.

    * Cable has lost upside traction, with the pair having settled 25-35 pips below the highs. The BoE trimmed its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 0.0% q/q from 0.2% while stating that inflation remains well anchored. Cable earlier printed an 8-day high at 1.2727. The Pound has fared less well against the Euro, losing ground today against the common currency. The UK currency has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, and this is not expected to change. Cable has resistance at 1.2730 and Support at 1.2665.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.

    * Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.

    * Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #174
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    Date : 24th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.




    * Last week of June ahead, with a caution turning into Osaka G20 meeting and the coveted Trump-Xi meeting. Market attention is also honed in any trade escalations but also on next week’s inflation data which could have an impact on ECB’s next move.

    Monday – 24 June 2019

    * German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to hold fell at 97.3, after it unexpectedly fell back to 97.9 in May from 99.2.

    * Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $5.32 billion in May, compared to $5.48 billion in April.

    Tuesday – 25 June 2019

    * OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.

    * CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

    * Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)

    Wednesday – 26 June 2019

    * Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75% in May, and this is expected to remain the case again in next week’s meeting. As Orr stated “We expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary
    level for a considerable period of time.” So no change in the rate setting is anticipated into 2019.

    * Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.

    Thursday – 27 June 2019

    * Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.

    * US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.

    * Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grew at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.

    Friday – 28 June 2019

    * Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.

    * Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

    * US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.

    * Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of
    writing this report.


    HERE[/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    [/URL]

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by AllForexnews; 06-24-2019 at 07:42 AM.

  5. #175
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    Date : 25th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Treasury yields extended declines in a quiet and cautious Monday action.

    * The front end and belly of the curve mostly led the way on safe haven flows and as the FOMC’s more dovish than expected twist last Wednesday continued to support.

    * Equities were little changed after a narrow, range bound trade.

    * Tensions with Iran continued to drive cash into the safety of Treasuries, especially after President Trump announced he was placing more sanctions against its supreme leader and other top Iran officials has closed the path to a diplomatic solution (on the Ayatollah Khamenei, personally).

    * US futures are down -0.2-0.5% as traders await Powell’s speech today.

    * TheWTI future saw a high of $57.98 per barrel before pulling back slightly to now $57.45.

    * Wall Street was in a more wait-and-see mode on the geopolitical risks, and as global markets await the U.S.-China trade talks at the G20 later in the week.

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * EURUSD printed fresh 3-month highs just over 1.1411, up from 1.1380 lows at the open. The Euro moved to session highs after the weaker Dallas Fed index. The pairing ran into sellers at 1.1400, seeing a pullback to 1.1386 lows. Prospects for a July Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the Dollar, though soft EU data are likely to push the ECB toward further stimulus over the next few months, largely offsetting potential Fed policy easing. The March 20 high of 1.1448 is the next resistance level.

    * Gold has printed five-plus year highs of $1,439.11, up from opening lows of $1,418.17. US/Iran tensions, along with potential for a Fed rate cut in July, and a weaker Dollar have all combined to put a bid under gold prices. The contract can be expected to remain in buy-the-dip mode for the foreseeable future, and continue to benefit from safe-haven flows on any fresh clashes in the Mideast.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * NO OPEC Meeting in June –The dates of the separate OPEC ministerial meeting and of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, have been changed to July 1-2, from June 25-26.

    * CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

    * Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #176
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    Date : 26th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * A less than dovish comment from Fed dove Bullard, with the Chairman Powell soothed a bit, and along with the usual trade uncertainty and US-Iran concerns, all combined with softer US data to take Wall Street and Treasury yields lower overnight.

    * Hence in Asia session, the rally on bond markets run out of steam and stocks struggled as optimism on an immediate rate cut from the Fed and a breakthrough in US-Sino trade talk fades.

    * Fed Chair Powell repeated the phrase the Fed is “closely monitoring“. He highlighted downside risks to the economy again, but didn’t go beyond last week’s guidance on rates.

    * Presidents Trump and Xi are likely to meet on Saturday, where they may agree to reopen trade talks.

    * Source stories meanwhile suggest that the US is willing to suspend the next round of China tariffs if trade talks resume, but Trump and Xi Jinping are not expected to agree on a detailed trade deal at the G-20 meeting.

    * Against that background stock markets struggled during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.71% and -0.70% respectively

    * The RBNZ kept rates at record lows, but said further cuts may be needed.

    * The WTI future is trading at $59.10 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions.

    * German consumer confidence deteriorates. It fell back to 9.8 in the advance July reading. This is the lowest number since April 2017.

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * EURCHF has found a footing into 1.10 area after coming under significant pressure last week, in the wake of ECB President Draghi’s eyebrow raising dovish shift, which has been the most notable of a growing chorus of dovish voices on the central bank’s governing council. Assuming the ECB remains on the path of further monetary policy easing ,the EURCHF is expected to retain a declining bias. The SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate and threat of tactical intervention hasn’t been sufficient to arrest recent appreciation of the Franc.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * ECB’s Mersch speech (EUR, GMT 08:00)

    * BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 09:00)

    * Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #177
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    Date : 27th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Treasuries were weaker Wednesday after a poorly subscribed 5-year auction, while aggressive Fed rate cut expectations continued to be priced out.

    * Also other bond markets in Asia, which were under pressure as stocks moved higher.

    * Markets are pinning their hopes on Saturday’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the side-lines of the G-20 meeting with reports that the U. is willing to hold off further tariffs for now helping to bolster confidence.

    * At the same time, President Trump threatened additional China tariffs if there is no agreement.

    * Still, without a firm and formal agreement in place risks of set backs remain high, especially as US.-Iran tensions and in Europe no-deal Brexit scenarios provide a risky backdrop.

    * European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after broad gains in Asia.

    * WTI crude surged to 4-week highs on API data showing big US inventory drop.

    * USD is trading mixed today after rallying Tuesday on Fed’s walk back of dovish guidance.

    * JPY down, Dollar bloc currencies up quite sharply on US-China optimism.

    * GBP is underperforming again on persisting Brexit related demand-supply imbalance.

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * EURUSD rallied to 1.1391 highs, after bouncing from the session low at 1.1348, which is also the 200-day moving average. The pairing has since run into sellers in front of the 1.1400 mark, settling in under 1.1360. Softer US data weighed on the Dollar, though Fed Chair Powell’s more neutral stance on policy may tone down market’s aggressive easing potential, likely to limit EUR gains going forward. In addition, increasing prospects for further ECB easing should also keep a cap on EURUSD.

    * AUDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising about 0.5% in printing a 16-day high at 75.62. The Yen weaken as markets opted for risk-on positioning ahead of the G20 summit. USDJPY posted an eight-day high at 108.13. This price action came as Chinese markets led broader gains across Asian stock markets, which propelled the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up by 0.6%. Meanwhile, as AUDJPY seems overbought outside from upper Bollinger Bands pattern, Some correction could be seen with immediate Support at 75.33. Resistance holds at 75.67 and 75.80.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.

    * US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.

    * Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #178
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    Date : 28th June 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Stock markets headed south during the Asian session.

    * Trade headlines continue to drive market sentiment and fresh doubts that there will be a breakthrough on the trade front at the highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping saw investors heading for cover again.

    * Trump repeated threats of more tariffs and with global equities still more than 5% higher on the month, the risk of disappointment is capping markets for now.

    * If there are at least further negotiations and central banks remain on course to add more stimulus, it should be a constructive start to the second half of the year.
    Topix and JP225 lost -0.25% and -0.50% respectively so far.

    * US futures are trading narrowly mixed, with American lenders gaining overnight after announcing share buybacks in the wake of annual Fed stress tests.

    * The WTI future is at $59.19 per barrel after seeing a high of $59.54 overnight.

    * In Europe, peripheral markets are outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing as a sharp drop in German import price inflation at the start of the session added to pressure on the ECB to implement further easing.

    * Eurozone stock futures are narrowly mixed.

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * BTCUSD retreated further overnight, with the contract bottoming at $10,228.24, down from Wednesday highs of $13,821. This sell off has been measured as a 25% plunged. The sell off started on the failure of Coinbase website. Technically, the decline came after the asset reached the 61.8% retracement level from year’s high, while it is currently retesting the 50% Fib. level. Hence as the asset was overbought such a correction is technically acceptable. If the pair manages to sustain a move above the 38.2% Fib level along with a move above the midpoint from this week’s decline (i.e. 12000.00), could spread hopes for another attempt higher again.

    * USDJPY fell briefly under 107.70. Word that China would require preconditions for the talks weighed the pairing down, though moved off its lows as NEC chief Kudlow said there were no pre-conditions to the talks. Wall Street gains limited the pairing’s losses, though soft Treasury yields put a cap on USDJPY. Resistance is now at the 20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.

    * Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

    * US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.

    * Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #179
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    Date : 1st July 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.




    * An important week is coming up as we will have an outcome of the well anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, while finally the 1st and 2nd of July will see OPEC+ members meet in Vienna. In addition, NFPs will be out on Friday and a broad range of PMIs and other early indicators are expected during the week.

    Monday – 01 July 2019

    * OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.

    * Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June.

    * Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR and GBP, GMT 07:55-08:30) – In June, the German PMI is expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, while UK PMI is seen strengthening at 52.0 from 49.4 last month.

    * ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 51.5 in June from 52.1 in May, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.

    Tuesday – 02 July 2019

    * Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. The CPI y/y rate came in at 1.3% from 1.8%, as the RBA targets underlying CPI at 2%-3%. The RBA stated this month that a rate cut “would be appropriate” should inflation remain weak. Australian OIS pricing is fully discounting a cut in the cash rate. Nevertheless, the Australian economy remains the most exposed developed-nation economy to China.


    Wednesday – 02 July 2019

    * United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT

    * ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.

    * ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.

    Thursday – 04 July 2019

    * United States – Independence Day

    * Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 0.2% for May, after falling to -0.1% last month.

    Friday – 05 July 2019

    * NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.

    * Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.

    * Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #180
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    Date : 2nd July 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd July 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Australia’s 10-year rate fell -2.7 bp, as the RBA slashed the cash rate by 25 bps to a record low of 1.00%, citing the slowdown in global trade.

    * US President Trump may have signalled that talks with China have already restarted, but the US reportedly also expanded a list of European products that may get hit with tariffs, which highlights that the restart of US-Sino trade talks doesn’t mark the end of global trade tensions.

    * Stock markets already turned cautious again in Asian trade.

    * US futures are marginally higher and the WTI future is trading at $59.13 per barrel.

    * European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after a lacklustre session in Asia.

    * Meanwhile weaker than expected German retail sales at the start of the session confirmed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector is spreading to the rest of the economy, which will keep the ECB on course for further easing.

    * EU leaders will meet again to resume discussion on the next president of the European Commission and other top posts that will become vacant this year, including the ECB presidency.

    Charts of the Day



    Technician’s Corner

    * AUDUSD jumped to 0.6985 at the Asia session amid the RBA announcement, after the decline seen yesterday on Dollar strength. The asset manage to held above 20- and 50-day SMA. A trade above 0.7000 which is the midpoint on yesterday’s decline could suggest further upside path for AUDUSD. Support comes at 2-day low, at 0.6955. A shift back to the latter could open the doors towards June’s values.

    * EURUSD faded to 7-session lows of 1.1275, down from the 1.1360 highs seen ahead of the NY open. Weaker European PMI data, along with more dovish ECBspeak, saw sentiment toward the Euro soured some. For the USD side of the equation, markets have toned down their Fed rate cut expectations, leaving the odds of a 50 bp cut in July a long shot. As a result, the Dollar has posted gains, helped by the trade truce agreed over the weekend. There are still likely to be further trade fireworks going forward, but as long as the US economy continues to outperform rivals, USD downside should be limited going forward.20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) –The June construction PMI is seen rebounding to 49.4 after 48.6 in May.

    * Manufacturing PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Canada is expected to come out at about 49.0 in June,slightly below the 49.1 in May.

    * BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:05)

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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