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  1. #1
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    Cozfx Daily Market Analysis

    COZfx: USD/CAD almost unchanged after Canadian data disappoints

    COZforex: The US dollar was almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious before the results of the US presidential election, while downbeat housing sector data from Canada weighed on the local currency.

    USD/CAD hit 1.3344 during early US trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3359. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3308, Monday’s low and resistance at 1.3418, Monday’s high.

    Markets were jittery ahead of the results of the US presidential vote, although sentiment remained mildly supported after the FBI informed Congress over the weekend that it had "not changed its conclusions" on the private email server maintained by Hillary Clinton.

    The news fuelled expectations that the Democratic candidate could win Tuesday’s election, which is seen as more source of stability for financial markets.

    Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported that building permits dropped 7.0% in September, compared to expectations for a 5.6% fall. Building permits increased by 11.0% in August, whose figure was revised from a previously expected 10.4% gain.

    A separate report showed that housing starts increased by 192,900 units last month, disappointing expectations for a 195,000 rise.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #2
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    COZfx: Euro trading higher before Germany’s inflation data

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.0886.

    In economic news, data indicated that Italy’s seasonally adjusted industrial production dropped less-than-expected by 0.8% in September, declining for the first time in three months, compared to a revised advance of 1.8% in the prior month while markets anticipated it to ease by 1.0%.

    The US Dollar gained ground, after the number of Americans filing for fresh unemployment benefits dropped more-than-anticipated to a level of 254.0K in the week ended 05 November, pointing towards healthy momentum in the nation’s labour market. Markets expected initial jobless claims to drop to a level of 260.0K, following a level of 265.0K in the previous week. Moreover, the nation posted a less-than-estimated budget deficit of $44.2 billion in October, compared to a revised deficit of $136.6 billion in the previous month.

    Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, stated that he remains on board with raising interest rate next month and reiterated his call for monetary policy to remain accommodative with just a single 0.25% rate hike over the next two to three years.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0860 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0818; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0945, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0988.

    Looking ahead, investors would turn their attention to Germany’s consumer price index for October, due to release in a few hours. Further, the US preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for November, slated to release later in the day, would also pique investor attention.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #3
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    COZfx: Sterling little changed after UK jobs report

    COZforex: The pound was little changed against the broadly stronger dollar on Wednesday after a report showing that the UK unemployment rate fell in the three months to September, but also indicated that the labor market could be slowing.

    GBP/USD was trading at 1.2451, holding above Tuesday’s lows of 1.2378.

    The UK unemployment rate ticked down to a new 11-year low of 4.8% in the July-September period, the Office for National Statistics said, compared to forecasts for an unchanged reading of 4.9%.

    The number of people signing on for unemployment benefits jumped by 9,800 in October and September’s figure was revised up to 5,600 from an initial estimate of 700. Economists had expected an increase of just 2,000 people.

    The rate of employment growth also slowed, as just 49,000 people found work in the July-September quarter, the slowest increase since March.

    Average pay, excluding bonuses, rose by an annualized 2.4% in the three months to September, up from 2.3% in the three months to August.

    But pay, including bonuses rose by 2.3%, matching the rate of growth in the three months to August.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #4
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    COZfx: Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade surplus expanded in October

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.38% against the JPY and closed at 110.62 on Friday.

    Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade surplus widened more-than-expected to a level of ¥474.3 billion in October, following a revised trade surplus of ¥358.5 billion in the prior month. Moreover, the nation’s exports dropped 10.3% on an annual basis in October, declining for a 13th straight month and surpassing market expectations for a fall of 8.5%. Exports had fallen 6.9% in the previous month. Further, the nation’s imports fell 16.5% YoY in October, compared to a drop of 16.3% in the prior month.

    Earlier today, data showed that the nation’s all industry activity index unexpectedly rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in September, compared to a similar rise in the prior month while markets expected the index to remain flat.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 110.15 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.25; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.57, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.09.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #5
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    COZfx: Aussie trading on a stronger footing this morning

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 0.7403.

    In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 4.9% or $270.5/MT to $5834.5/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $8.5/MT to $1774.0/MT.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7428, with the AUD trading 0.34% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7379 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7331; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7455 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7483.

    Looking ahead, market participants await the release of Australia’s HIA new home sales and retail sales, both for October along with AiG performance of manufacturing index for November, all scheduled to release next week.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #6
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    COZfx: Japan’s industrial production rose for a third consecutive month in October

    COZforex: For the 24 past trading session, the USD rose 0.61% against the JPY and closed at 112.49.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 112.60, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

    Data released overnight showed that Japan’s flash industrial production rose for a third consecutive month, after it climbed by 0.1% on a monthly basis in October, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior month. Moreover, the nation’s small business confidence index surprisingly remained steady at a level of 48.3 in November, defying market expectations for it to ease to a level of 48.0.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 111.86 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.11; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.07.

    Moving ahead, investors would closely monitor Japan’s final Nikkei manufacturing PMI for November, scheduled overnight.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #7
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    COZfx: Swiss economy stalled for the first time in more than a year in the third quarter

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD marginally climbed against the CHF and closed at 1.0105 on Friday.

    In economic news, Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) remained flat on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016, stagnating for the first time in more than a year, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior quarter, whereas investors had envisaged the economy to advance 0.3%.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.0170, with the USD trading 0.64% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 1.0100 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0029; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0251.

    With no major economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #8
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    COZfx: USD/CAD trims losses as markets digest ECB decision

    COZforex: The US trimmed losses against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, after positive US data and the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision boosted the greenback, although upbeat housing sector data from Canada also lent some support to the local currency.

    USD/CAD eased off 1.3200, the pair’s lowest since October 20, to hit 1.3235 during early US trade, steady for the day. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: The pair was likely to find support at 1.3106, the low of October 20 and resistance at 1.3300, Wednesday’s high.

    The US Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 258,000 in the week ending December 2, in line with expectations.
    Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported that building permits increased by 8.7% in October, confounding expectations for a 0.7% fall.

    Building permits declined by 4.6% in September, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 7.0% drop.

    The commodity-related Canadian dollar was also supported by a rise in oil prices on Thursday, although doubts remained over whether a planned output cut by OPEC will be enough to reduce a global supply glut.

    The euro weakened broadly after the ECB said at its monthly policy meeting that it would extend its asset purchase program for an additional nine months.

    Beyond the program’s scheduled end in March 2017, the central bank said net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary.

    In addition, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low of zero, in line with forecasts.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #9
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    COZfx: Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index jumped in December

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.07% against the USD and closed at 1.0632.

    On the data front, the Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index advanced more-than-expected to a level of 18.1 in December, indicating that investors remained optimistic about the region’s economic outlook. In the prior month, the economic sentiment index had registered a reading of 15.8.

    Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index surprisingly remained steady at a level of 13.8 in December, defying market expectations for a rise to a level of 14.0. Further, the current situation index jumped to its highest level in more than a year of 63.5 in December, surpassing market expectations of a rise to a level of 59.0 and after recording a reading of 58.8 in the prior month. Also, the nation’s final consumer price index held steady at a two-year high of 0.8% YoY in November, meeting preliminary estimates and compared to a similar rise in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0602 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0569; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0667, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0699.

    Going ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone’s industrial production data for October, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, market participants turned their attention to the outcome of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, amid widespread expectations for an interest rate hike. Additionally, a raft of economic releases in the US, consisting of retail sales, industrial and manufacturing production, all scheduled to release later today, would pique investor attention.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #10
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    COZfx: UK’s CBI industrial trends total orders improved to a level of 0.0 in December

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.64% against the USD and closed at 1.2480 on Friday.

    In economic news, UK’s CBI industrial trends total orders improved to a level of 0.0 in December, recording its highest level since April 2015, from a reading of -3.0 in the previous month, while markets expected for a rise to a level of -5.0.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2478, with the GBP trading marginally lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2414 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2349; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2526, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2573.

    With no economic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.


    (COZ forex UK)

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