Cozfx Daily Market Analysis

COZfx: Euro-zone’s construction output rebounded in April

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.43% against the USD and closed at 1.1150.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted construction output rebounded 0.3% on a monthly basis in April, following a drop of 1.1% in the previous month.

The US Dollar advanced against its key peers, after a key Federal Reserve policymaker indicated that a third interest rate hike this year remains on the table.

The New York Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, offered an upbeat assessment of the US economy, stating that tightening in the labour market will push wages higher and will eventually help drive up inflation. However, the Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, noted that the Fed should move slowly to raise rates and shrink its portfolio, as inflation is stubbornly soft.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1127 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1098; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1199, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1242.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone’s current account data for April, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, market participants would eye comments from a few Fed officials as they are scheduled to speak later in the day.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Sterling rises above $1.29 on Carney remarks

COZforex: The pound jumped higher against the dollar on Wednesday, rising above the $1.29 level after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney appeared to alter his forward guidance on interest rates.

GBP/USD hit highs of 1.2965, the most since June 9 and was at 1.2949 by 10.08 ET (14.08 GMT), up 1.05% for the day.

The pound jumped after Carney said some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary as spare capacity in the economy erodes.

Speaking at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal, Carney said that policymakers would need to look at the extent to which stronger business investment is offset by weaker consumption, as well as growth in wages and labor costs.

“These are some of the issues that the MPC will debate in the coming months,” Carney said.

“Some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary if the trade-off facing the MPC continues to lessen and the policy decision accordingly becomes more conventional.”

The BOE’s monetary policy committee was split 5-3 at its meeting earlier this month on whether to raise interest rates from a record-low 0.25%. Carney voted to keep rates unchanged.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canada’s economy expanded as expected in April

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.23% against the CAD and closed at 1.2963 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar gained ground, after Canada’s gross domestic product rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in April, at par with market expectations, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate hike later this month. In the prior month, the GDP had recorded a rise of 0.5%. Additionally, on an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.3% in April, advancing at its fastest pace in three years. Markets were anticipating the GDP to climb 3.4%, compared to an advance of 3.2% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2984, with the USD trading 0.16% higher against the CAD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2954 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2924; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3007, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3030.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Australia’s trade surplus sharply widened in May

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD slightly declined against the USD and closed at 0.7607.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.5% or $29.0/MT to $5818.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $9.5/MT to $1913.0/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7600, with the AUD trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Earlier in the session, data revealed that Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-expected to a level of A$2471.0 million in May, amid a surge in exports and following a revised trade surplus of A$90.0 million in the previous month. Market anticipation was for the country’s trade surplus to expand to A$1100.0 million.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7570 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7540; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7631, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7662.

Going ahead, investors will focus on Australia’s AiG performance of construction index for June, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japan’s Eco-Watchers Survey for the current situation hit a 6-month high in June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.1% against the JPY and closed at 114.06.

Yesterday, the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated the central bank’s pledge to keep Japanese government bond yields fixed near zero until inflation rises above its 2.0% target in a sustainable manner.

On the data front, Japan’s Eco-Watchers Survey for the current situation rose more-than-anticipated to a level of 50.0 in June, notching its highest level in 6 months and compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 49.0. In the previous month, the index had registered a reading of 48.6. Moreover, the nation’s Eco-Watchers Survey for the future outlook climbed more-than-expected to a level of 50.5 in June, following a reading of 49.6 in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 114.03 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.85; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.47.

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close watch on Japan’s flash machine tool orders for June, slated to release in a while.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: German annual inflation advanced as initially estimated in June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.16% against the USD and closed at 1.1397.

In economic news, Germany’s final consumer price index rose 1.6% on an annual basis in June, confirming the flash estimate. The CPI had advanced 1.5% in the previous month.

In the US, data showed that the number of Americans filing for fresh jobless claims eased to a level of 247.0K in the week ended 08 July, dropping for the first time in a month, suggesting that the nation’s labour market remains buoyant. In the previous week, initial jobless claims had registered a revised reading of 250.0K, while markets were anticipating for a fall to a level of 245.0K. Additionally, the nation’s producer price index advanced 2.0% on an annual basis in June, surpassing market consensus for a rise of 1.9%. The PPI had registered a rise of 2.4% in the prior month.

On the other hand, the nation’s budget deficit widened more-than-expected to a level of $90.2 billion in June, compared to market expectations of a deficit of $38.0 billion. In the previous month, the nation had registered a budget deficit of $6.3 billion.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1367 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1327; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1452, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1497.

Going ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone’s trade balance figures for May, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, traders would closely monitor a slew of crucial economic releases in the US, consisting of the consumer price index, advance retail sales, industrial and manufacturing production, all for June followed by the flash Michigan consumer confidence index for July, all scheduled to release later today.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: British inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time since October 2016 in June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.3044, following softer inflation figures in the UK.

Data indicated that Britain’s consumer price index climbed 2.6% on an annual basis in June, easing for the first time since October 2016 and diminishing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England in the upcoming months. The CPI had advanced 2.9% in the previous month, while markets had anticipated for a gain of 2.9%.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2980 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2932; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3101, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3174.

With no major economic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canadian annual inflation grew at its weakest pace in nearly 2 years in June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.46% against the CAD and closed at 1.2538 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar gained ground, after Canada’s retail sales rose more-than-anticipated by 0.6% in May, climbing for the third straight month. Retail sales had recorded a revised rise of 0.7% in the previous month, while markets were expecting for a gain of 0.3%.

On the other hand, the nation’s consumer price index rose less-than-expected by 1.0% on an annual basis in June, advancing at its weakest pace since October 2015 and undershooting market expectations for an advance of 1.1%. In the previous month, the CPI had recorded a rise of 1.3%.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2508 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2472; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2595, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2646.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: RBA left its key interest rate unchanged for the 11th consecutive month

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.26% against the USD and closed at 0.8002.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 1.0% or $64.0/MT to $6347.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.6% or $12.0/MT to $1904.0/MT.

Earlier in the session, the Reserve Bank of Australia, at its latest monetary policy meeting, kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5%, in line with market expectations.

On the data front, Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing index advanced to a level of 56.0 in July, following a level of 55.0 in the prior month.

Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI index unexpectedly rise to a level of 51.1 in July, hitting a 4-month high level and defying market consensus for the PMI to remain steady at a level of 50.4.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7982 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.793; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8064, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8094.

Going forward, Australia’s building approvals data for June, set to be released in the early hours’ tomorrow, will keep investors on their toes.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro-zone’s retail sales surprised with an unexpected rise in June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.24% against the USD and closed at 1.1878, boosted by better-than-expected retail sales data from the Euro-bloc.

The Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted retail sales unexpectedly advanced 0.5% on a monthly basis in June, suggesting that households ramped-up spending amid optimism that the region’s economy is on a stronger growth path. Retail sales registered a rise of 0.4% in the previous month, while markets were expecting it to record a flat reading. Meanwhile, the region’s final Markit services PMI remained unchanged at a level of 55.4 in July, in line with the flash estimates.

Separately, Germany’s services sector activity fell more than initially estimated to a level of 53.1 in July, compared to a preliminary print that had indicated a drop to a level of 53.5. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a reading of 54.0.

The greenback lost ground against a basket of major currencies, following worse-than-expected US ISM non-manufacturing data.

The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined more-than-expected to a level of 53.9 in July, dipping to an eleven-month low level, thus highlighting a loss of momentum in the nation’s dominant services sector. Markets had expected the PMI to fall to a level of 56.9, compared to a reading of 57.4 posted in the previous month.

On the contrary, the nation’s seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell more-than-anticipated to a level of 240.0K in the week ended 29 July, pointing to a healthier labour market, compared to market expectations of a drop to a level of 243.0K. In the prior week, initial jobless claims had recorded a revised reading of 245.0K.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1840 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1805; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1902, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1929.

Moving ahead, investors will keep a close watch on Germany’s factory orders for June, slated to release in a while. Later in the day, all eyes will be on the crucial US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, both for July, followed by the nation’s trade balance figures for June.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Switzerland’s unemployment rate remained steady in July

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9727.

Macroeconomic data revealed that Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 3.2% in July, at par with market expectations.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.97, with the USD trading 0.28% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9676 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9651; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9797.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment will be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japanese economic growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2017

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 109.09 on Friday.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 109.37, with the USD trading 0.26% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s preliminary gross domestic product advanced 1.0% on a quarterly basis in second quarter of 2017, beating market expectations for a rise of 0.6%, amid robust consumer spending and capital expenditure. In the prior quarter, GDP had climbed 0.3%.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 108.92 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.48; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.90.

Going ahead, market participants will focus on Japan’s final industrial production data for June, slated to release tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Britain’s ILO unemployment rate surprisingly declined in the three months to June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.21% against the USD and closed at 1.2894, following upbeat jobs report from the UK.

Data showed that Britain’s ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% in the three months to June, highlighting that the nation’s jobs growth remains on a solid footing despite an overall slowdown in economic growth. Meanwhile, market participants were expecting the ILO unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.5% registered in the March-May period. Also, the nation’s average earnings including bonus climbed 2.1% on an annual basis in the April-June period, topping market consensus for a gain of 1.8% and following a revised rise of 1.9% in the three months to May.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2860 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2817; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2927, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2951.

Moving ahead, market participants will focus on Britain’s retail sales data for July, set to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canada’s wholesale sales fell 0.5% in June

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.18% against the CAD and closed at 1.2562.

On the macro front, Canada’s wholesale sales fell 0.5% in June, meeting market expectations and compared to a revised rise of 1.0% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2558, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2536 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2515; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2593, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2629.

Ahead in the day, market participants will keep a close watch on Canada’s retail sales data for June.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: AUD trading a tad lowers this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.3% against the USD and closed at 0.7967 on Friday.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.2% or $16.0/MT to $6776.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices remained flat at $2113.5/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7966, with the AUD trading slightly lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7927 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7889; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7999, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8033.

Going ahead, traders will anxiously await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision, due to be announced tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: ECB retained its benchmark interest rate at record low

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.81% against the USD and closed at 1.2022, after the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, hinted that the long-awaited decision about scaling back the ECB’s quantitative easing programme would likely come in next month.

The ECB, at its latest monetary policy meeting, opted to leave the key interest rate unchanged at a record low level of 0.00% and pledged to continue its bond-buying programme through December 2017 and possibly beyond if needed. In a post-meeting statement, the ECB President stated that the governing council had held early talks on how long to maintain its extraordinary stimulus efforts and added that the central bank will make the “bulk” of its decisions in October.

Gains in the Euro were boosted further, after the ECB upgraded the Euro-bloc’s growth outlook, now expecting the common currency region to grow 2.2% in 2017, up from a previous forecast of 1.9%, given the region’s improving fundamentals. However, the central bank lowered its forecasts for inflation to 1.2% next year from 1.3% previously and to 1.5% in 2019 from 1.6%.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6% on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2017, in line with the preliminary figures. In the previous quarter, GDP had advanced by a revised 0.5%.

Separately, Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial production surprisingly remained flat on a monthly basis in July, compared to market consensus for a rise of 0.5%. In the previous month, industrial production had dropped 1.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1963, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1851. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2138, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2201.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on Germany’s trade balance figures for July, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US final wholesale inventories and consumer credit change, both for July, will be on investors’ radar.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss Franc reverses its losses this morning

COZforex: For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.45% against the CHF and closed at 0.9598.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.9589, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9551 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9514; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9622, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9656.

Ahead in the day, investors will eye Switzerland’s producer & import prices data for August.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Oil reverses its gains, ahead of API’s weekly crude oil inventories data

COZforex: For the past trading session, Crude Oil rose 0.16% against the USD and closed at USD49.97 per barrel, on renewed optimism over crude demand outlook as US refineries continued to restart after getting knocked out by Hurricane Harvey.

Meanwhile, gains in crude prices were limited, after the Energy Information Administration predicted a rise of 79,000 barrels a day to 6.1 million bpd in 7 major US crude-oil shale plays in October.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 49.89, with the oil trading 0.16% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: Crude Oil is expected to find support at 49.28 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 48.66; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 50.42, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 50.94.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japanese manufacturing sector growth hit a 4-month high in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.36% against the JPY and closed at 112.07 on Friday.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 112.27, with the USD trading 0.18% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI rose to a level of 52.6 in September, notching a four-month high, amid a pick-up in domestic and export orders. The PMI had registered a level of 52.2 in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 111.77 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.27; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.65, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.03.

Going ahead, investors will focus on a speech by the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, due in some time.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Pound Could Go From Bad to Worse as May Drama Dominates Mood

COZforex: There may be no respite for the pound after its worst weekly performance in a year.

Sterling fell almost 3 percent last week, after a chaotic Conservative party conference cast the premiership of Theresa May in doubt. With political intrigue set to continue, the Brexit talks restarting and manufacturing data due, strategists anticipate another volatile week and investors in the options market have turned bearish. Meanwhile, May could be planning an overhaul of her team of top ministers soon, the Sunday Times reported.

"Theresa May’s position as prime minister is clearly foremost in the market’s mind,” said Jane Foley, Rabobank’s head of currency strategy. "If she goes, investors are going to be fearful that’s going to open up a catalog of events which will lead to a Labour government.”

On Friday, Theresa May told reporters that she had the "full support” of her cabinet. Although ex-Tory party chairman Grant Shapps said 30 members of the party were willing to sign a letter calling for her to resign, this falls short of the 48 signatures needed to launch a leadership challenge.

May will reshuffle her cabinet after an Oct. 19-20 summit in Brussels, the Sunday Times reported, citing unidentified party sources.

With Brexit talks due to start again this week, one-week volatility on the pound is higher than one- and three-month gauges. That suggests investors see more dramatic moves for sterling in the near term. Meanwhile, one-week risk reversals have turned bearish on the currency.

The market will also be awaiting any further clarity on the Bank of England’s thinking, having priced in an interest-rate hike in November. This week’s data will provide investors with the latest evidence of both how likely the bank is to tighten policy and whether it would be right to do so, said Foley, with industrial production and house prices key.

"We’ve had a number of warnings in the past that a rate hike was very possible only to see no action,” said Standard Bank’s head of currency strategy Steven Barrow. "Another episode of this in coming months might not just set the pound back but could also limit the extent that sterling can rise whenever the bank makes similar warnings in the future."

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canada’s building permits plunged in August, housing starts declined in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.3% against the CAD and closed at 1.2517.

On the economic front, Canada’s building permits declined more-than-anticipated by 5.5% on a monthly basis in August, easing for the second straight month and compared to a revised drop of 2.8% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for building permits to drop 1.0%. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted housing starts dropped to a level of 217.1K in September, compared to market consensus for a fall to a level of 212.0K. Housing starts had recorded a reading of 223.2K in the previous month.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2515, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2490 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2464; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2535, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2554.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Officials in no rush to hike interest rates, still worried about household debt: RBA minutes

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.3% against the USD and closed at 0.7848.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 3.0% or $205.0/MT to $7063.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.2% or $4.0/MT to $2144.0/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7851, with the AUD trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

According to minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s October meeting, policymakers held the view that any change in monetary policy would be dependent on domestic economic conditions and not on moves by central banks elsewhere. The central bank reiterated that low interest rates would continue in order to support the Australian economy. Moreover, officials noted that household debt levels remain elevated and need careful monitoring.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7828 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7804; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7882, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7912.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro-zone’s current account surplus rose to a 15-month high in August

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.65% against the USD and closed at 1.1770 on Friday.

In economic news, the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus notched its highest level since May 2016 in August, after it widened to €33.3 billion, boosted by larger exports of goods. The region had registered a revised surplus of €31.5 billion in the prior month.

The greenback advanced against its major counterparts, on the back of renewed optimism over the US President, Donald Trump’s tax reforms plans, after the US Senate approved a budget blueprint.

On the macro front, existing home sales in the US unexpectedly rebounded 0.7% on a monthly basis to a level of 5.39 million in September, defying market expectations for a fall to a level of 5.30 million and after registering a level of 5.35 million in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1737 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1707; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1812, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1857.

Moving ahead, investors would eye the Euro-zone’s flash consumer confidence index for October, slated to release later today. Further, the US Chicago Fed national activity index for September, due to release later in the day, will be on investors’ radar.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japan’s annual inflation advanced as expected in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.43% against the JPY and closed at 114.12.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 114.16, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% on an annual basis in September, meeting market expectations and compared to a similar rise in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 113.58 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.00; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.84.

Going ahead, investors would focus on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision, scheduled next week.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss Franc trading lower ahead of the SVME – PMI data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.17% against the CHF and closed at 0.9973.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank reported a record profit of CHF32.5 billion for the third quarter amid a drop in the Franc’s value and strength in equity markets. Earnings included a gain of CHF1.9 billion from the increased value of its gold holdings and of CHF520.0 million from negative interest rates it charges banks to hold deposits.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.9987, with the USD trading 0.14% higher from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9959 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9931; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0006, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0025.

Moving ahead, traders will now focus on Switzerland’s SVME – PMI data for October, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)