Cozfx Daily Market Analysis

COZfx: USD/CAD almost unchanged after Canadian data disappoints

COZforex: The US dollar was almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious before the results of the US presidential election, while downbeat housing sector data from Canada weighed on the local currency.

USD/CAD hit 1.3344 during early US trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3359. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3308, Monday’s low and resistance at 1.3418, Monday’s high.

Markets were jittery ahead of the results of the US presidential vote, although sentiment remained mildly supported after the FBI informed Congress over the weekend that it had "not changed its conclusions" on the private email server maintained by Hillary Clinton.

The news fuelled expectations that the Democratic candidate could win Tuesday’s election, which is seen as more source of stability for financial markets.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported that building permits dropped 7.0% in September, compared to expectations for a 5.6% fall. Building permits increased by 11.0% in August, whose figure was revised from a previously expected 10.4% gain.

A separate report showed that housing starts increased by 192,900 units last month, disappointing expectations for a 195,000 rise.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro trading higher before Germany’s inflation data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.0886.

In economic news, data indicated that Italy’s seasonally adjusted industrial production dropped less-than-expected by 0.8% in September, declining for the first time in three months, compared to a revised advance of 1.8% in the prior month while markets anticipated it to ease by 1.0%.

The US Dollar gained ground, after the number of Americans filing for fresh unemployment benefits dropped more-than-anticipated to a level of 254.0K in the week ended 05 November, pointing towards healthy momentum in the nation’s labour market. Markets expected initial jobless claims to drop to a level of 260.0K, following a level of 265.0K in the previous week. Moreover, the nation posted a less-than-estimated budget deficit of $44.2 billion in October, compared to a revised deficit of $136.6 billion in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, stated that he remains on board with raising interest rate next month and reiterated his call for monetary policy to remain accommodative with just a single 0.25% rate hike over the next two to three years.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0860 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0818; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0945, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0988.

Looking ahead, investors would turn their attention to Germany’s consumer price index for October, due to release in a few hours. Further, the US preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for November, slated to release later in the day, would also pique investor attention.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Sterling little changed after UK jobs report

COZforex: The pound was little changed against the broadly stronger dollar on Wednesday after a report showing that the UK unemployment rate fell in the three months to September, but also indicated that the labor market could be slowing.

GBP/USD was trading at 1.2451, holding above Tuesday’s lows of 1.2378.

The UK unemployment rate ticked down to a new 11-year low of 4.8% in the July-September period, the Office for National Statistics said, compared to forecasts for an unchanged reading of 4.9%.

The number of people signing on for unemployment benefits jumped by 9,800 in October and September’s figure was revised up to 5,600 from an initial estimate of 700. Economists had expected an increase of just 2,000 people.

The rate of employment growth also slowed, as just 49,000 people found work in the July-September quarter, the slowest increase since March.

Average pay, excluding bonuses, rose by an annualized 2.4% in the three months to September, up from 2.3% in the three months to August.

But pay, including bonuses rose by 2.3%, matching the rate of growth in the three months to August.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade surplus expanded in October

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.38% against the JPY and closed at 110.62 on Friday.

Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade surplus widened more-than-expected to a level of ¥474.3 billion in October, following a revised trade surplus of ¥358.5 billion in the prior month. Moreover, the nation’s exports dropped 10.3% on an annual basis in October, declining for a 13th straight month and surpassing market expectations for a fall of 8.5%. Exports had fallen 6.9% in the previous month. Further, the nation’s imports fell 16.5% YoY in October, compared to a drop of 16.3% in the prior month.

Earlier today, data showed that the nation’s all industry activity index unexpectedly rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in September, compared to a similar rise in the prior month while markets expected the index to remain flat.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 110.15 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.25; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.57, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.09.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Aussie trading on a stronger footing this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 0.7403.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 4.9% or $270.5/MT to $5834.5/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $8.5/MT to $1774.0/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7428, with the AUD trading 0.34% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7379 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7331; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7455 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7483.

Looking ahead, market participants await the release of Australia’s HIA new home sales and retail sales, both for October along with AiG performance of manufacturing index for November, all scheduled to release next week.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japan’s industrial production rose for a third consecutive month in October

COZforex: For the 24 past trading session, the USD rose 0.61% against the JPY and closed at 112.49.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 112.60, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Data released overnight showed that Japan’s flash industrial production rose for a third consecutive month, after it climbed by 0.1% on a monthly basis in October, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior month. Moreover, the nation’s small business confidence index surprisingly remained steady at a level of 48.3 in November, defying market expectations for it to ease to a level of 48.0.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 111.86 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.11; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.07.

Moving ahead, investors would closely monitor Japan’s final Nikkei manufacturing PMI for November, scheduled overnight.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss economy stalled for the first time in more than a year in the third quarter

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD marginally climbed against the CHF and closed at 1.0105 on Friday.

In economic news, Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) remained flat on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2016, stagnating for the first time in more than a year, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior quarter, whereas investors had envisaged the economy to advance 0.3%.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.0170, with the USD trading 0.64% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 1.0100 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0029; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0251.

With no major economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: USD/CAD trims losses as markets digest ECB decision

COZforex: The US trimmed losses against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, after positive US data and the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision boosted the greenback, although upbeat housing sector data from Canada also lent some support to the local currency.

USD/CAD eased off 1.3200, the pair’s lowest since October 20, to hit 1.3235 during early US trade, steady for the day. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: The pair was likely to find support at 1.3106, the low of October 20 and resistance at 1.3300, Wednesday’s high.

The US Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 258,000 in the week ending December 2, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported that building permits increased by 8.7% in October, confounding expectations for a 0.7% fall.

Building permits declined by 4.6% in September, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 7.0% drop.

The commodity-related Canadian dollar was also supported by a rise in oil prices on Thursday, although doubts remained over whether a planned output cut by OPEC will be enough to reduce a global supply glut.

The euro weakened broadly after the ECB said at its monthly policy meeting that it would extend its asset purchase program for an additional nine months.

Beyond the program’s scheduled end in March 2017, the central bank said net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary.

In addition, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low of zero, in line with forecasts.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index jumped in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.07% against the USD and closed at 1.0632.

On the data front, the Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index advanced more-than-expected to a level of 18.1 in December, indicating that investors remained optimistic about the region’s economic outlook. In the prior month, the economic sentiment index had registered a reading of 15.8.

Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index surprisingly remained steady at a level of 13.8 in December, defying market expectations for a rise to a level of 14.0. Further, the current situation index jumped to its highest level in more than a year of 63.5 in December, surpassing market expectations of a rise to a level of 59.0 and after recording a reading of 58.8 in the prior month. Also, the nation’s final consumer price index held steady at a two-year high of 0.8% YoY in November, meeting preliminary estimates and compared to a similar rise in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0602 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0569; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0667, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0699.

Going ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone’s industrial production data for October, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, market participants turned their attention to the outcome of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, amid widespread expectations for an interest rate hike. Additionally, a raft of economic releases in the US, consisting of retail sales, industrial and manufacturing production, all scheduled to release later today, would pique investor attention.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: UK’s CBI industrial trends total orders improved to a level of 0.0 in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.64% against the USD and closed at 1.2480 on Friday.

In economic news, UK’s CBI industrial trends total orders improved to a level of 0.0 in December, recording its highest level since April 2015, from a reading of -3.0 in the previous month, while markets expected for a rise to a level of -5.0.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2478, with the GBP trading marginally lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2414 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2349; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2526, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2573.

With no economic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Kiwi moves higher on upbeat GDP, Aussie holds steady

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar moved higher against its US counterpart on Thursday, helped by upbeat New Zealand economic growth data, while the Australian dollar was steady in pre-Christmas holiday-thinned trade.

NZD/USD rose 0.23% to 0.7325, still close to Tuesday’s 6 month low of 0.6879.

Statistics New Zealand earlier reported that the country’s gross domestic product increased by 1.1% in the third quarter, beating expectations for a 0.9% rise.

New Zealand’s economy grew 0.9% in the second quarter, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated growth rate of 0.9%.

However, year-on-year, New Zealand GDP rose 3.5% in the last quarter, compared to expectations for a growth rate of 3.7%.

AUD/USD was almost unchanged at 0.7235, not far from Tuesday’s six-month trough of 0.7250.

Meanwhile, the greenback remained broadly supported after the Federal Reserve concluded its policy meeting last week by raising interest rates by 25 basis points and projected three more rate hikes for 2017.

But trading volumes were expected to remain thin as traders were beginning to unwind positions ahead of the Christmas holiday.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japanese industrial production jumped in November

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.3% against the JPY and closed at 117.43.

On Monday, minutes of the Bank of Japan’s recent monetary policy meeting indicated that policy makers maintained optimism over the rate of economic recovery, citing stabilization in global consumer demand. However, board members disagreed over the volume of bonds the bank should purchase in keeping with its new program to control interest rates.

Other economic news revealed that the nation’s national consumer price index rose 0.5% on an annual basis in November, in line with market expectations, advancing for the second consecutive month. The CPI had advanced 0.1% in the previous month. Further, the nation’s jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 3.1% in November, defying market expectations for it to record an unchanged reading of 3.0%. Also, the small business confidence index increased to a level of 48.8 in December, following a level of 48.3 in the previous month.

Overnight data showed that Japan’s preliminary industrial production advanced 1.5% on a monthly basis in November, rising the most in five months, thus suggesting that activity in the world’s third-largest economy continues to gain traction. However, the reading was weaker than market expectations of a rise of 1.7%, while recording a flat reading in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 117.24 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 116.93; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 117.8, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 118.05.

Looking ahead, BoJ’s summary of opinions report, due to release overnight, will attract market attention.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace since July 2016

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.24% against the USD and closed at 0.7193.

Over the weekend, data showed that in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the NBS manufacturing PMI eased more-than-expected to a level of 51.4 in December, compared to a level of 51.7 in the previous month, whereas investors had envisaged for a drop to a level of 51.5. Moreover, the nation’s NBS non-manufacturing PMI declined to a level of 54.5 in December, compared to a level of 54.7 in the preceding month.

Overnight data indicated that Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing index advanced to a level of 55.4 in December, expanding for the third consecutive month and rising at its fastest pace since July 2016, thus boosting optimism over the health of the nation’s manufacturing sector. The index registered a reading of 54.2 in the previous month.

Elsewhere in China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 51.9 in December, marking its fastest rate of growth in three years and further indicating that the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7181 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7135; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7252, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7277.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Germany’s construction sector accelerated to a 9-month high in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 1.12% against the USD and closed at 1.0599, after Germany’s Markit construction PMI advanced to a level of 54.9 in December, expanding at its fastest pace in nine months, driven by a surge in new orders. The PMI had registered a level of 53.9 in the previous month.

Separately, the Euro-zone’s producer price index surprisingly rebounded 0.1% YoY in November, marking its first increase since 2013, compared to a drop of 0.4% in the preceding month, while investors had envisaged the index to fall 0.1%.

The greenback lost ground against a basket of major currencies, after downbeat US private sector jobs data reinforced some doubt on the health of the nation’s labour market.

Data showed that the US ADP private sector employment climbed less-than-expected by 153.0K in December, pointing towards slowdown in the nation’s jobs growth. Markets anticipated private sector to add 175.0K jobs, following a revised gain of 215.0K in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation’s initial jobless claims dropped to a nearly 43-year low level of 235.0K in the week ended 31 December 2016, pointing to further tightening in the labour market. Meanwhile, markets expected for a drop to a level of 260.0K, after recording a revised level of 263.0K in the prior week.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0505 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0425; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0640, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0695.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s final consumer confidence for December and retail sales for November, accompanied with Germany’s factory orders and retail sales data, both for November, all scheduled to release in a few hours.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canadian housing starts jumped in December, building permits edge down

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.13% against the CAD and closed at 1.3235.

Macroeconomic data showed that Canada’s seasonally adjusted housing starts rose more-than-anticipated to a level of 207.0K in December, indicating that housing sector continues to be one of the brightest spots in the economy. Housing starts recorded a revised reading of 187.3K in the prior month, while markets were expecting it to climb to a level of 190.0K. On the contrary, the nation’s building permits slid 0.1% on a monthly basis in November, less than market expectations for a drop of 6.0%. In the previous month, building permits had registered a revised rise of 10.5%.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.3244, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.3203 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3162; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3271, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3298.

Amid no economic releases in Canada today, trading trend in CAD is expected to be determined by global macroeconomic news.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Pound at 3month low, braces for May's Brexit speech

COZforex: The British pound flirted with a three-month low on Tuesday, hit by fears that Prime Minister Theresa May's speech later in the day will set Britain on course to lose access to the lucrative European Union single market.

Concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's protectionist policies are also undermining risk sentiment, helping to push up the yen back to its highest levels in more than five weeks.

The pound was on the defensive at $1.2038, having slumped to a three-month low of $1.1983 on Monday, which was its weakest point in more than three decades barring the several minutes in early Asian trade on Oct 7 when it tanked to as low as $1.1491.

May will say Britain will not seek a Brexit deal that leaves it "half in, half out" of the European Union, according to her office, in a speech setting out her 12 priorities for upcoming divorce talks with the bloc.

Those priorities will include leaving the EU's single market and regaining full control of Britain's borders, several newspapers have reported since the weekend.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence inched higher in January

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 1.14% against the USD and closed at 0.7553.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 1.5% or $85.5/MT to $5771.5/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices declined 0.4% or $6.5/MT to $1805.5/MT.

Overnight data indicated that Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, compared to a drop of 3.9% in the previous month.

Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the house price index climbed 12.4% YoY in December, following a rise of 12.6% in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7490 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7429; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7590, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7629.

Moving ahead, market participants will focus on Australia’s unemployment rate for December and consumer inflation expectations for January, scheduled to release in the early hours of tomorrow.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro trading higher, ahead of a speech by the ECB President

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.0704 on Friday.

In economic news, Germany’s producer price index rose 1.0% on a monthly basis in December, in line with market expectations and notching its highest level in four-years. The index had climbed 0.1% in the prior month.

The greenback lost ground against its key counterparts, amid rising concerns among investors after Donald Trump took a protectionist tone in his first speech as the US President.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve President, Patrick Harker, expressed optimism over the US economic growth, inflation and the labour market and reiterated that if the economy stays on growth-track, three interest rate hikes would be appropriate in 2017.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0661 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0579; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0787, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0831.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi along with the Euro-zone’s preliminary consumer confidence index for January, scheduled to release later today. Additionally, the German Buba monthly report, slated to release in a few hours, will also be on investor’s radar.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japan continues moderate economic recovery: BoJ minutes

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.35% against the JPY and closed at 112.86.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 113.08, with the USD trading 0.19% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

According to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s December meeting, most of the board members believe that Japanese economy remains on a moderate recovery path. At the meeting, the BoJ kept the monetary stimulus unchanged as expected and raised its assessment of the economy.

Earlier today, data indicated that Japan’s Nikkei services PMI eased to a level of 51.9 in January, after recording a level of 52.3 in the preceding month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 112.34 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.59; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.95.

Next week, investors will keep a close watch on BoJ’s summary of opinions report, trade balance (BOP basis) and Eco-Watchers survey data.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: USD/CAD slips lower as oil prices jump

COZforex: The US dollar was lower against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, despite the release of upbeat US jobless claims data, as rising oil prices lent support to the commodity-related Canadian currency.

USD/CAD hit 1.3106 amid early US trade, the pair’s lowest since Tuesday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3101, shedding 0.33%. In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3004, the low of February 6 and resistance at 1.3201, Wednesday’s high.

The US Department of Labor said initial jobless claims decreased by 12,000 to 234,000 in the week ending February 4 from the previous week’s total of 246,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000 to 250,000 last week.

But sentiment on the greenback remained vulnerable amid concerns over US President Donald Trump's protectionist stance and recent hints from the new administration that it would prefer a weaker dollar.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was boosted by a strong rally in oil prices on Thursday, on the back of an unexpected decline in US gasoline inventories.

Statistics Canada earlier reported that new housing price inflation rose 0.1% in December, disappointing expectations for an increase of 0.2% and following a 0.2% gain the previous month.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: UK’s economic growth set to slow due to Brexit: European Commission

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.32% against the USD and closed at 1.2526.

Yesterday, the European Commission upgraded Britain’s growth forecasts for 2017, but still expects a more severe hit to the economy eventually as Brexit will start to take effect on business decisions and inflation begins to rise at a quicker pace. The Commission now expects UK economy to expand by 1.5% in 2017, up from 1.0% predicted earlier in November. For 2018, the EC has pencilled in a slowdown in growth to 1.2%.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2532, with the GBP trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2493 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2454; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2555, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2578.

Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK’s January inflation figures, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Aussie trading on a stronger footing this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.22% against the USD and closed at 0.7691.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.02% or $1.0/MT to $6015.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.4% or $7.0/MT to $1878.0/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7697, with the AUD trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7678 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7660; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7717, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7738.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on RBA’s recent meeting minutes and a speech by its Governor Philip Lowe, both scheduled next week.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro-zone’s manufacturing and services sector growth accelerated in February

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.74% against the USD and closed at 1.0535.

On the economic front, the Euro-zone’s preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a level of 55.5 in February, expanding at its fastest pace in nearly six-years, thus pointing to a strong first quarter growth in the common currency region. Markets expected the PMI to drop to a level of 55.0, following a reading of 55.2 in the previous month.

Separately, Germany’s manufacturing sector growth surprised with the fastest rate of expansion in nearly 7-years, after it advanced to a level of 57.0 in February, boosting optimism over the health of the nation’s economy. Meanwhile, market anticipated the PMI to drop to a level of 56.0, following a level of 56.4 in the previous month.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies, after hawkish comments from the Philadelphia Fed President, Patrick Harker, stating that he would support an interest rate increase at the central bank’s next meeting in March, if the economy gains further momentum.

Data revealed that the US flash Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to a two-month low level of 54.3 in February, compared to a reading of 55.0 in the prior month, while markets were expecting the PMI to advance to a level of 55.2. Additionally, the nation’s services sector activity expanded at its slowest pace in two-months, after it fell to a level of 53.9 in February, compared to a level of 55.6 in the prior month, whereas market participants were expecting the PMI to climb to a level of 55.8.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0516 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0487; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0581, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0617.

Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on the Euro-zone’s final consumer price index for January, along with Germany’s Ifo survey data for February, scheduled to release in a few hours. Additionally, investors will look forward to minutes of the US Fed’s latest meeting, slated to release later in the day, for clues on the trajectory of future interest rate hikes.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japan’s industrial production dropped for the first time in 6 months in January

COZfx: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.48% against the JPY and closed at 112.74.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s preliminary industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, declining for the first time in six months, thus casting doubt over the health of the nation’s industrial sector. Industrial production had registered a rise of 0.7% in the prior month, whereas markets anticipated for an increase of 0.4%. Also, the nation’s large retailers’ sales recorded a more-than-expected drop of 1.1% in January, compared to a fall of 1.3% in the prior month. On the contrary, the nation’s seasonally adjusted retail trade rebounded 0.5% on a monthly basis in January, surpassing market expectations for a rise of 0.3%. In the prior month, retail trade had registered a revised drop of 1.6%.

Also, early morning data showed that Japan’s small business confidence index unexpectedly dropped to a level of 47.7 in February, defying market consensus for a rise to a level of 48.5 and following a reading of 48.3 in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 112.08 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.56; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.98, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.36.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2016

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 1.0130.

The Swiss Franc declined, after Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose less-than-expected by 0.1% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016, compared to a revised similar rise in the prior quarter, whereas markets expected the GDP to rise 0.4%. On the contrary, the nation’s real retail sales declined 1.4% YoY in January, following a revised drop of 4.1% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.0126, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 1.0098 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.007; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.015, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0174.

With no economic releases in Switzerland today, investors will look forward to global events for further direction.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)