Cozfx Daily Market Analysis

COZfx: RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.50%

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.43% against the USD and closed at 0.7685.

In technical analysis, LME Copper prices declined 0.2% or $12.0/MT to $6902.5/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices fell 0.6% or $13.0/MT to $2152.0/MT.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, at its latest policy meeting, decided to keep its cash rate steady at 1.50%, citing weakness in inflation and slowdown in the housing market. The central bank kept its forecast for the nation’s economic growth largely unchanged and it expects inflation to gradually rise in the coming months. However, the central bank remained concerned about the outlook for household spending.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7689, with the AUD trading marginally higher from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7657 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7625; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7711, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7733.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canada’s new house price index climbed in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.39% against the CAD and closed at 1.2681.

Macroeconomic data showed that Canada’s new house price index rose 0.2% in September, meeting market expectations. The index had registered a gain of 0.1% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2670, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2646 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2621; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2716, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2761.

Investors would direct their attention to Canada’s crucial inflation figures, set to release later next week.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: UK’s ILO unemployment rate remained steady at a 4-decade low in the three months to September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP marginally rose against the USD and closed at 1.3169, after UK’s ILO unemployment rate remained steady at a 42-year low of 4.3% in the three months to September, meeting market expectations. Further, the nation’s average earnings including bonus advanced more-than-anticipated by 2.2% in the July-September period, but remained firmly behind inflation, indicating that the squeeze on consumers may continue for some time. Average earnings including bonus had registered a revised gain of 2.3% in the June-August period, while markets were expecting for a rise of 2.1%.

However, the number of people employed in the nation unexpectedly fell by 14.0K in the July-September period, declining for the first time since October 2016. Markets were expecting employment to rise 52.0K, following an increase of 94.0K in the June-August 2017 period.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.3131 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3093; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3253.

Moving ahead, market participants will focus on Britain’s retail sales data for October, due to release in a few hours. Also, a speech by the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, due later in the day, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro trading a tad higher in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR marginally declined against the USD and closed at 1.1734, pressured by heightened political uncertainty in the Euro-zone’s largest economy.

Yesterday, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel stated that she would prefer new elections if she fails to form a majority coalition.

In economic news, Germany’s producer price index climbed 2.7% on a yearly basis in October, at par with market expectations and compared to a rise of 3.1% in the prior month.

Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that the leading indicator rebounded 1.2% in October, exceeding market expectations for a gain of 0.8%. In the prior month, leading indicator had recorded a drop of 0.2%.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1708 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1677; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1839.

With no major macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would focus on the US existing home sales data for October, slated to release later in the day. Additionally, a speech by the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen due overnight, would keep investors on their toes.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Japanese Yen trading higher in the morning session

COZforex: For the last trading session, the USD rose 0.34% against the JPY and closed at 111.59 on Friday.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 111.40, with the USD trading 0.17% lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 111.24 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.07; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.85.

With no major economic releases in Japan today, Yen investors would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss economy expanded as expected in 3Q 2017

COZforex: For the last trading session, the USD marginally declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9841.

Macroeconomic data revealed that Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose 0.6% on a quarterly basis in the three months to September, meeting market consensus. The GDP had posted a revised rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Moreover, the nation’s KOF leading indicator unexpectedly climbed to a level of 110.3 in November, defying market expectations for a drop to a level of 109.7 and compared to a revised level of 109.8 in the previous month.

On the other hand, the nation’s real retail sales fell 3.0% YoY in October. In the prior month, real retail sales had recorded a revised rise of 0.5%.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9809 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9780; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9875, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9912.

Moving ahead, market participants will closely monitor Switzerland’s consumer price inflation and unemployment rate data, both due to release next week.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: BoC holds interest rate steady at 1.0%

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.76% against the CAD and closed at 1.2792.

The Canadian Dollar lost ground, after the Bank of Canada, at its latest monetary policy meeting, struck a cautious tone on further interest rate hikes.

The BoC, in a widely anticipated move, opted to leave the benchmark interest rate steady at 1.0%. In a statement accompanying its rate decision, the central bank stated that interest rate hikes will likely be required over time, citing encouraging job and wage growth, but reiterated that the Governing Council will continue to be “cautious” about further rate hikes and added that any move will be based on the outlook for inflation and wage growth.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2801, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.27 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.26; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2854, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2908.

Moving ahead, investors would keep a close watch on Canada’s building permits data for October and Ivey–PMI for November, both due to release later today.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence rebounded in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.36% against the USD and closed at 0.7556.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 1.0% or $66.5/MT to $6614.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminum prices rose 0.6% or $12.5/MT to $2004.0/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7575, with the AUD trading 0.25% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data revealed that Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded 3.6% in December, compared to a drop of 1.7% in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7542 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7508; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7595, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7614.

Looking ahead, market participants will await the release of Australia’s unemployment rate data for November, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro-zone’s trade surplus declined to a 3-month low in October

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.09% against the USD and closed at 1.1756 on Friday, after the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed to a three-month low of €19.0 billion in October, amid a drop-in export and a rise in imports. In the previous month, the region had posted a revised trade surplus of €24.5 billion, while markets had expected for a fall to €24.3 billion.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies on Friday, amid growing expectations that US lawmakers will pass a long-awaited tax bill before the year-end.

On the macro front, industrial production in the US advanced 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, undershooting market consensus for an increase of 0.3%, as gains in the mining sector were offset by a fall in utilities output. Industrial production had registered a revised rise of 1.2% in the prior month. Moreover, the nation’s manufacturing production grew less-than-expected by 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, against market anticipations for an advance of 0.3%. Manufacturing production had registered a revised rise of 1.4% in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1730 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1697; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1804, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1845.

Going ahead, investors would eye the Euro-zone’s final inflation numbers for November, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US NAHB housing market index for December, due to release later in the day, will be on investors’ radar.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: UK’s Lloyds business confidence jumped to a 5-month high level in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.3384.

On the economic front, UK’s public-sector net borrowing posted a less-than-expected deficit of £8.1 billion in November, following a revised deficit of £7.2 billion in the previous month. Market participants had anticipated public sector net borrowing to post a deficit of £8.3 billion.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.3380, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Data released overnight showed that the Lloyds business barometer increased to a level of 28.0 in December, surging to its highest level since July 2017, compared to a reading of 24.0 in the prior month.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.3345 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3311; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3401, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3423.

Looking forward, UK’s final 3Q GDP numbers, due to release in a few hours, will attract significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Officials called for debate on interest rates, ETF purchases: BOJ December meeting summary

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD marginally rose against the JPY and closed at 113.24.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 113.16, with the USD trading 0.07% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

According to the Bank of Japan’s latest summary of opinions report, some board members urged for a discussion over raising interest rates or lowering purchases of exchange-traded funds in response to the improving economic fundamentals in the Japanese economy.

On the macro front, Japan’s seasonally adjusted retail trade climbed 1.9% in November, compared to a revised fall of 0.1% in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated the retail trade to advance 0.7%. Moreover, the nation’s large retailers’ sales rebounded 1.4% in November, beating market expectations for an increase of 1.0% and compared to a drop of 0.7% in the preceding month.

Other data revealed that Japan’s preliminary industrial production grew 0.6% on a monthly basis in November, topping market consensus for an advance of 0.5%. In the previous month, industrial production had risen 0.5%.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 113.07 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.99; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.31, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.47.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss Franc trading marginally lower this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.21% against the CHF and closed at 0.9721.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.9723, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9702 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9681; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9742, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9761.

Ahead in the day, traders would keep a close watch on Switzerland’s real retail sales for November and SVME–PMI for December.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Loonie extends its gains, ahead of Canada’s existing home sales data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.3% against the CAD and closed at 1.2485.

On the macro front, Canada’s Teranet/National Bank house price index rebounded 0.2% on a monthly basis in December. In the previous month, the index had recorded a fall of 0.5%.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2452, with the USD trading 0.26% lower against the CAD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2408 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2364; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2526, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2600.

Ahead in the day, market participants would look forward to Canada’s existing home sales data for December.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Aussie trading higher in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.6% against the USD and closed at 0.8006.

In commodities, LME Copper prices traded flat to close at $7047.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 1.7% or $38.0/MT to $2225.0/MT.

Yesterday, data showed that in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, gross domestic product climbed more-than-anticipated by 6.8% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared to market expectations for a rise of 6.7%. GDP had registered a similar rise in the prior quarter.

Other data revealed that the nation’s industrial production climbed 6.2% YoY in December, topping market expectations for a rise of 6.1%. In the prior month, industrial production had risen 6.1%. Meanwhile, the nation’s retail sales rose less-than-anticipated by 9.4% on a yearly basis in December, after recording a rise of 10.2% in the previous month, while investors were anticipating for a gain of 10.2%.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7969 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7923; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8041, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8067.

Amid no major macroeconomic releases in Australia today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic news.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Euro-zone’s services sector growth notched a more than 10-year high in January

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.84% against the USD and closed at 1.2400, after latest data confirmed that economic growth across the Euro-zone continued its staggering rate of expansion in the new year.

The Euro-zone’s preliminary Markit services PMI registered an unexpected rise to a level of 57.6 in January, rising at its fastest pace since August 2007. The PMI had recorded a level of 56.6 in the previous month, while markets had expected for a fall to a level of 56.4. On the other hand, the region’s flash Markit manufacturing PMI eased more-than-estimated to a level of 59.6 in January, after posting a record high reading of 60.6 in the prior month. Market anticipation was for the PMI to ease to a level of 60.3.

Separately, activity in Germany’s services sector surprisingly jumped to a level of 57.0 in January, accelerating at its quickest pace since March 2011. The PMI had registered a level of 55.8 in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a drop to a level of 55.5. On the contrary, growth in the nation’s manufacturing sector slowed to a 3-month low level of 61.2 in January, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 63.0 and following a level of 63.3 in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.2341 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2251; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2480, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2529.

Moving ahead, all eyes would be on the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, scheduled later in the day. Also, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence for February as well as the Ifo business climate and expectations indices for January, will keep investors on their toes.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: UK’s manufacturing sector expanded at its weakest pace since June 2017 in January

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.49% against the USD and closed at 1.4263, brushing off data showing an unexpected drop in Britain’s manufacturing sector.

Data showed that UK’s Markit manufacturing PMI registered an unexpected drop to a level of 55.3 in January, hitting its lowest level in 7 months, indicating that the sector lost momentum after a strong performance in recent months. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a revised level of 56.2, while investors had envisaged for an advance to a level of 56.5.

Other data indicated that Britain’s seasonally adjusted Nationwide house prices rose more-than-estimated by 0.6% in January, compared to a similar rise in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated for a gain of 0.1%.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.4272, with the GBP trading 0.06% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.4195 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4119; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4313, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4355.

Looking ahead, traders would keep a close watch on UK’s Markit construction PMI for January, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Canada building permits advanced in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.5% against the CAD and closed at 1.2569.

Macroeconomic data revealed that Canada’s building permits rebounded 4.8% in December, higher than market expectations for a rise of 2.0%. Building permits had fallen by a revised 7.3% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2559, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2511 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2464; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2592, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2626.

Ahead in the day, market participants will keep a close watch on Canada’s housing starts data for January.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Germany’s annual inflation slowed in February

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.77% against the USD and closed at 1.2236, after Germany’s annual inflation growth missed market expectations in February.

Data revealed that Germany’s flash consumer price index registered a rise of 1.4% on an annual basis in February, falling short of market expectations for a gain of 1.5%, thus suggesting that persistently sluggish inflation readings will weigh on the European Central Bank’s decision to pare back its extraordinary stimulus anytime soon. The CPI had recorded an advance of 1.6% in the previous month.

Separately, the Euro-zone’s final consumer confidence index eased to a level of 0.1 in February, confirming the preliminary print. In the previous month, the index had registered a revised level of 1.4.

Other data showed that the region’s economic sentiment indicator dropped to a 3-month low level of 114.1 in February, compared to market consensus for a fall to a level of 114.0. In the prior month, the index had registered a revised reading of 114.9. Additionally, the region’s business climate indicator fell to a level of 1.48 in February, hitting its lowest level since October 2017. The index had registered a revised level of 1.56 in the prior month, while markets were expecting it to ease to a level of 1.47.

The US Dollar advanced against its major peers, after the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, conveyed an upbeat picture of the US economy and signaled that the Fed remains on course for gradual interest rate hikes.

The new Fed Chairman, in a testimony before Congress, noted that the US economic outlook had brightened in the past few months, on the back of stronger economic fundamentals and the passage of a $1.5 trillion tax cut plan. Further, he pledged to “strike a balance” between the risk of an overheating economy while sticking with a plan to gradually raise short-term interest rates as recent data has strengthened prospects of higher inflation. Commenting on the latest stock market rout, Powell stated that these developments would not weigh heavily on the US economy.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.2177, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2131. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2308, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2393.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Swiss Franc trading higher, ahead of Swiss inflation data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.38% against the CHF and closed at 0.9400.

On the data front, Switzerland’s total sight deposits remained steady at a level of CHF576.0 billion in the week ended 02 March.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.9392, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9361 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9329; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9416, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9439.

Ahead in the day, traders would eye Switzerland’s inflation figures for February, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Oil trading slightly higher this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, Crude Oil rose 3.09% against the USD and closed at USD62.11 per barrel on Friday, after fresh figures from Baker Hughes indicated that active oil rigs in the US fell by 4 to 796 in the week ended 09 March, dropping for the first time in 7 weeks.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at USD62.12 per barrel, with oil trading marginally higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: Crude oil is expected to find support at 60.73, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 59.34; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 62.92, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 63.72.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Aussie trading on a weaker footing this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 1.13% against the USD and closed at 0.7793.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 1.9% or $129.5/MT to $6885.5/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices declined 1.6% or $33.5/MT to $2062.5/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7777, with the AUD trading 0.21% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7738 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7699; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7849, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7921.

Next week, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting minutes and Australia’s unemployment rate data, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: UK’s wage growth accelerated in the three months to January, unemployment rate surprisingly dropped in the same period

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.94% against the USD and closed at 1.4141, after the latest labour report indicated a pick-up in UK’s wage growth.

Data showed that Britain’s average earnings excluding bonus rose 2.6% on an annual basis in the three months ended January 2018, meeting market expectations and suggesting that the slack in the nation’s wage growth is finally diminishing. In the previous three months, average earnings excluding bonus had advanced by 2.5%. Further, the nation’s ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 4-decade low of 4.3% in the November-January 2018 period, while investors had envisaged the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4%.

Additionally, employment in the UK sharply jumped by 168.0K in the November-January 2018 period, exceeding market consensus for a rise of 84.0K. Employment had registered an increase of 88.0K in the October-December 2017 period.

In other economic news, the nation’s public sector net borrowing reported a less-than-anticipated surplus of £0.3 billion in February, after recording a revised surplus of £11.7 billion in the previous month. Markets were expecting public sector net borrowing to report a surplus of £0.5 billion.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.4054 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3944; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4222, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4280.

Trading trends in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, due to be announced later in the day. Investors would also eye UK’s retail sales data for February, set to release in a few hours.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Gold Prices Slip as Trade War Fears Persist

COZforex: Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as the dollar pushed higher amid renewed concerns over the prospect of a trade war between the U.S. and China and after steep falls on Wall Street and in Asia led by a selloff in tech stocks.

Gold futures for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slid $1.7 or 0.13% to $1,340.30 a troy ounce by 05:13 AM ET.

Demand for the dollar was underpinned amid renewed fears over the prospect of trade war between the U.S. and China after the state run Chinese newspaper the Global Times reported Wednesday that Beijing will soon announce a list of tariffs on U.S. exports to China in response to proposed U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.

Reports that U.S. President Donald Trump discussed China’s trade practices with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron also dented hopes that the risk of a trade war was easing.

Investors’ fears that trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies could escalate out of control and deal a blow to the global economy.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.18% to 89.12, pulling away from Tuesday’s five-week low of 88.53.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: USD/JPY fails to recapture 106.00 on recovery, resumes sinking

COZforex: The USD/JPY is heading lower once more after recovering from a bottom of 105.65 in Monday's trading, and the pair is testing below 105.75 as risk aversion continues into the Tuesday Tokyo markets.

The Yen saw wide uptake as the Greenback slid and equities and other risk assets tumbled on the post-holiday market action, with risk appetite evaporating at the outset of the new week.

The USD/JPY managed to reach a high of 106.45 during the European market session, but with most European exchanges shuttered for the Easter Monday celebrations the broader markets didn't really get moving until the US session, where the USD proceeded to dump approximately righty pips from the day's high.

There is very little data for the Yen this week, though Household Spending due late on Thursday may give traders something to bid about if the numbers miss or beat expectations by enough, with the indicator currently forecast to print at 0.3 percent, a decline from the previous reading of 1.3 percent.

This week's focus is going to remain squarely on US Non-Farm Payrolls, due on Friday.

(COZ forex UK)

COZfx: Loonie trading higher in the morning session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.14% against the CAD and closed at 1.2779.

On the data front, Canada’s international merchandise trade deficit widened more-than-estimated to C$2.69 billion in February, following a revised deficit of C$1.94 billion in the previous month. Market anticipation was for the nation to record a trade deficit of C$2.10 billion.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2754, with the USD trading 0.20% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2730 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2707; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2792, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2831.

Later in the day, traders would await Canada’s unemployment rate data for March.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

(COZ forex UK)