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  1. #21
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    COZfx: UK’s economic growth set to slow due to Brexit: European Commission

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.32% against the USD and closed at 1.2526.

    Yesterday, the European Commission upgraded Britain’s growth forecasts for 2017, but still expects a more severe hit to the economy eventually as Brexit will start to take effect on business decisions and inflation begins to rise at a quicker pace. The Commission now expects UK economy to expand by 1.5% in 2017, up from 1.0% predicted earlier in November. For 2018, the EC has pencilled in a slowdown in growth to 1.2%.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2532, with the GBP trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2493 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2454; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2555, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2578.

    Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK’s January inflation figures, slated to release in a few hours.

    The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #22
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    COZfx: Aussie trading on a stronger footing this morning

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.22% against the USD and closed at 0.7691.

    In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.02% or $1.0/MT to $6015.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.4% or $7.0/MT to $1878.0/MT.
    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7697, with the AUD trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7678 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7660; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7717, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7738.

    Moving ahead, investors will focus on RBA’s recent meeting minutes and a speech by its Governor Philip Lowe, both scheduled next week.
    The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #23
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    COZfx: Euro-zone’s manufacturing and services sector growth accelerated in February

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.74% against the USD and closed at 1.0535.

    On the economic front, the Euro-zone’s preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a level of 55.5 in February, expanding at its fastest pace in nearly six-years, thus pointing to a strong first quarter growth in the common currency region. Markets expected the PMI to drop to a level of 55.0, following a reading of 55.2 in the previous month.

    Separately, Germany’s manufacturing sector growth surprised with the fastest rate of expansion in nearly 7-years, after it advanced to a level of 57.0 in February, boosting optimism over the health of the nation’s economy. Meanwhile, market anticipated the PMI to drop to a level of 56.0, following a level of 56.4 in the previous month.

    The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies, after hawkish comments from the Philadelphia Fed President, Patrick Harker, stating that he would support an interest rate increase at the central bank’s next meeting in March, if the economy gains further momentum.

    Data revealed that the US flash Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to a two-month low level of 54.3 in February, compared to a reading of 55.0 in the prior month, while markets were expecting the PMI to advance to a level of 55.2. Additionally, the nation’s services sector activity expanded at its slowest pace in two-months, after it fell to a level of 53.9 in February, compared to a level of 55.6 in the prior month, whereas market participants were expecting the PMI to climb to a level of 55.8.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0516 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0487; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0581, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0617.

    Moving ahead, traders would keep a close watch on the Euro-zone’s final consumer price index for January, along with Germany’s Ifo survey data for February, scheduled to release in a few hours. Additionally, investors will look forward to minutes of the US Fed’s latest meeting, slated to release later in the day, for clues on the trajectory of future interest rate hikes.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #24
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    COZfx: Japan’s industrial production dropped for the first time in 6 months in January

    COZfx: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.48% against the JPY and closed at 112.74.

    Overnight data indicated that Japan’s preliminary industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, declining for the first time in six months, thus casting doubt over the health of the nation’s industrial sector. Industrial production had registered a rise of 0.7% in the prior month, whereas markets anticipated for an increase of 0.4%. Also, the nation’s large retailers’ sales recorded a more-than-expected drop of 1.1% in January, compared to a fall of 1.3% in the prior month. On the contrary, the nation’s seasonally adjusted retail trade rebounded 0.5% on a monthly basis in January, surpassing market expectations for a rise of 0.3%. In the prior month, retail trade had registered a revised drop of 1.6%.

    Also, early morning data showed that Japan’s small business confidence index unexpectedly dropped to a level of 47.7 in February, defying market consensus for a rise to a level of 48.5 and following a reading of 48.3 in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 112.08 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.56; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.98, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.36.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #25
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    COZfx: Swiss economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2016

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 1.0130.

    The Swiss Franc declined, after Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose less-than-expected by 0.1% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016, compared to a revised similar rise in the prior quarter, whereas markets expected the GDP to rise 0.4%. On the contrary, the nation’s real retail sales declined 1.4% YoY in January, following a revised drop of 4.1% in the prior month.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.0126, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 1.0098 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.007; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.015, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0174.

    With no economic releases in Switzerland today, investors will look forward to global events for further direction.

    The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #26
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    COZfx: Loonie trading higher, ahead of Canada’s building permits and housing starts data

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD marginally rose against the CAD and closed at 1.3409.

    Macroeconomic data revealed that Canada’s seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI unexpectedly eased to a level of 55.0 in February, compared to a reading of 57.2 in the prior month and confounding market consensus for the PMI to climb to a level of 58.5. In contrast, the nation’s international merchandise trade surplus rose more-than-estimated to a level of C$0.81 billion in January, compared to a revised international merchandise trade surplus of C$0.45 billion in the previous month.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.3401, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.3376 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3352; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.343, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.346.

    Ahead in the day, Canada’s housing starts for February and building permits for January, will be closely watched by market participants.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #27
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    COZfx: UK’s manufacturing, industrial and construction output, all dropped in January

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.2175 on Friday.

    On the macro front, Britain’s manufacturing production dropped more-than-anticipated by 0.9% on a monthly basis in January, following a revised rise of 2.2% in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a fall of 0.7%. Further, the nation’s industrial production registered a less-than-expected drop of 0.4% in January, compared to a revised rise of 0.9% in the previous month. Moreover, the nation’s construction output eased 0.4% in January, higher than market expectations for a drop of 0.2% and following a rise of 1.8% in the prior month. However, the nation’s total trade deficit narrowed to a level of £1.97 billion in January, following a revised deficit of £2.03 billion in the prior month, whereas markets were anticipating the nation to register a deficit of £3.1 billion.

    In other economic news, NIESR estimated that UK’s gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the three months to February, meeting market expectations and compared to a revised rise of 0.8% in the November 2016-January 2017 period.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2147 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2116; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2198, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2218.

    With no economic releases in the UK today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic news for further direction.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #28
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    COZfx: Australia’s unemployment rate surprisingly jumps to 5.9% in February

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 1.89% against the USD and closed at 0.7701.

    In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 1.8% or $103.0/MT to $5850.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.7% or $12.0/MT to $1863.0/MT.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.768, with the AUD trading 0.27% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close, after the release of a downbeat Australian jobs report.

    Early morning data indicated that Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.9% in February, hitting its highest level in thirteen months, as the total number of people with jobs fell by 6.4K last month, while the market forecasted a rise of 16.0K. The unemployment rate was expected to remain steady at 5.7%. Further, the nation’s consumer inflation expectations advanced 4.0% in March, compared to a gain of 4.1% in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7588, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7495. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7746, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7811.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #29
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    COZfx: Germany’s producer price inflation accelerates at its fastest pace since November 2011 in February

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.25% against the USD and closed at 1.0733.

    On the data front, Germany’s producer price index rose 3.1% on an annual basis in February, notching its highest level in over five years, amid a surge in energy prices. However, the index fell short of market expectations of a rise of 3.2%, while following a gain of 2.4% in the previous month.

    Separately, according to the Bundesbank monthly report, the German economy has continued to expand and will do so in the foreseeable future, on the back of robust industrial output.

    In the US, the Chicago Federal Reserve President, Charles Evans, reiterated the Fed’s view that two more interest rate hikes this year are likely and added that the central bank will possibly wait at least until June to decide on the next interest rate hike. Nevertheless, he also added that four rate rises this year isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility, if the economy “really” picks up and inflation tops the Fed’s 2.0% target.

    On the data front, the US Chicago Fed national activity index advanced to a level of 0.34 in February, compared to a revised reading of -0.02 in the previous month, whereas investors had envisaged the index to climb to a level of 0.03.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.0722 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0690; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0782, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0810.

    Amid no economic releases across the Euro-zone today, market participants will closely monitor comments from a host of Fed officials, scheduled later in the day.


    (COZ forex UK)

  • #30
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    COZfx: Japan’s flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI declined to a 3-month low level in March

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.24% against the JPY and closed at 111.02.

    The Japanese Yen lost ground, after data indicated that Japan’s preliminary Nikkei manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 52.6 in March, expanding at its slowest pace in three months as growth in new orders and output slowed. The PMI had recorded a level of 53.3 in the previous month.

    Early morning data showed that the nation’s final leading economic index came in at 104.9 in January, while the preliminary figures had indicated a revised level of 104.8. Meanwhile, the nation’s final coincident index dropped less than initially estimated to a level of 115.1 in January, after registering a revised reading of 115.5 in the prior month and compared to a fall to a level of 114.9 in the flash print.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 110.77 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.26; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.62, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.96.

    Looking ahead, investors would await Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions report coupled with Japan’s jobless rate, national consumer price index, flash industrial production, retail trade and large retailers’ sales data, all slated to release next week.


    (COZ forex UK)

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