Market Outlook
Friday, June 27, 2008

Indonesia shares are likely to trade lower, hurt by bearish global markets due to high oil prices.
What fortunate for us is that we have good commodity and mining related stocks which could offset losses made by financial and manufacture stocks. The main index after failing to close above 2356-pivot point yesterday may fall to as deep as as 2283 which could change the entire course of investment. I did recommend you all to weight your portfolio in cash several days ago.A local big fund may be forced to spend most of his treasury fund to defend the main index from falling deeper. Best buy is at any level below 2290.
Bear in mind that a sell off in the U.S. and European markets could mean that investors are also looking for safety havens in emerging markets. Main index: 2283-2356

TLKM: 7250-7500. Its adrs in NY fell 3pct to IDR7289. I still go with buy at the lower end of the range for dividend payment.

ISAT: 6,000-6,500. Its ADRs in NY ended up 0.6% at $33.73, or equal with IDR6,200. Best buy is at any level below IDR6,000. Talks on tender offer by Qtel are likely to find their grounds given the company's good fundamentals and solid management.

BBRI: 4,850-5,400. Efforts to shape up the share prices yesterday ran well, buT selling pressure today may provide opportunity to buy below IDR5,000 for mid term investment. Fundamentals are sound given its strength in dealing with its traditional captive market in micro finance sector.

BUMI: 7,950-8,700. There has been a shift of support from IDR8,050 to IDR7,900, which could provide a strong buy. On investment view, it looks that this range could mean a distribution of investment, but on chart reading, this could become its last stronghold. If fails to break below IDR8,050, it may significantly rebound and retest IDR8,450-immediate resistance. Buy on weakness

PTBA: 15,650-16,300. It may be trading in a narrower range, with IDR15,600 would become a good level for a very short term investment. BUY on weakness or at any level below IDR15,400.

PGAS: 12,800-13,900. There have been too many speculative rumors which were aimed to further depress the stock prices ahead of its plan for 1-for-5 stock split. the cheaper the better for big funds. BUY on weakness or at any level below IDR12,800.

ENRG: 950-1,100. It is now trading below its fair value of IDR1,300 based on DCF. High oil prices could boost its earnings given rich new exploration in remote Sumatra areas. BUY on weakness for mid term investment.

MEDC: 4,450-5,200. High oil prices should contribute bigger revenue, with first half earnings likely rising significantly due to absence of losses in investment in the U.S. as a comparative figure. BUY on weakness or at any level below IDR4,400.

TBLA: 670-760
UNSP: 1,780-1,920
AALI: 26,900-32,000
TINS: 34,600-36,900
TMAS: 330-440
BTEL: 245-295
GZCO: 255-300
ITMG: 29,000-36,000