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  • #31
    Market Pulse 22.01



    The long-awaited day of the ECB meeting came, and all investors' attention will be riveted to this event. It is expected during the traditional ECB Press Conference Mario Draghi will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program.

    8:00 ** Unemployment rate - Q4 (Spain)

    Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The Spanish indicator usually has a low impact, as the country is relatively small to affect the performance of the entire euro zone.

    9:00 ** MPC Member David Miles Speaks - January (UK)
    9:25 ** BOE Executive Director Paul Fisher Speaks - January (UK)

    Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Comments of David Miles and Paul Fischer about the prospects for credit, inflation and the economy as a whole, can have an impact on the pound.

    12:45 *** ECB Interest Rate Decision - January (euro zone)
    12:45 ** Deposit Facility Rate - January (euro zone)
    12:45 ** Marginal Lending Facility - January (euro zone)

    Strong impact on the market (EUR). Changes in the rates are extremely important, and the quotes usually take a lead from it in advance. At this meeting, the ECB will unlikely make changes in rates.

    13:30 *** ECB Press Conference - January (euro zone)

    Strong impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that Mario Draghi will announce an extensive quantitative easing program on this press conference. Although the market was taking a lead from this decision for about a week, the ECB's decision both appropriate and not appropriate to the forecast, may have a strong influence on the euro.

    13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - January (USA)
    13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)

    Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect positive data for the reporting week, although on news from the ECB, investors can leave these statistics without attention.

    15:00 ** Flash Consumer Confidence - January (euro zone)

    Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The consumer confidence index is based on a survey of households on the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and its development in the future. Analysts expect the decline of the indicator in January.

    Comment


    • #32
      Vista Brokers: Waiting for ECB Decision Influences on Metals



      Gold in global markets falls for a second day. Investors expect that the expansion of the ECB stimulation program will increase the demand for risky assets. Vista Brokers analysts point out that in 2015, gold has already increased by 8.8% on numerous signals of slowdown in the global economy.

      On Wednesday, gold was traded at a five-month high of $ 1,300 an ounce. Today in London gold for immediate delivery has fallen in price by 0.5% to $ 1,286.73. February futures fell on the Comex by 0.6% to $ 1,286.10.

      Silver for immediate delivery fell by 0.4% to $ 18.0582 an ounce and palladium - by 0.5% to $ 763.75. Platinum added 0.2% to $ 1,275.88 an ounce.

      Analysts reminde that with high probability, today ECB President Mario Draghi will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program, which means a monthly asset purchasing by 50 billion euros (58 billion dollars).

      Comment


      • #33
        Vista Brokers: ECB Stimulation Program Can Support Oil



        Oil prices reduction continues to be one of the most debated topics, giving way, perhaps, only to the ECB quantitative easing program. Oil companies and exporters expect the market tests the bottom and start to rise. At the same time, many experts say that oil prices may fall to 30 dollars a barrel, because there are no economic justification for a high price, and there is a clear oversupply and falling demand in the market.

        This situation lays mainly to the charge of North America, which is steadily increasing its production. The global economy, which is experiencing a period of deceleration, does not need oil in such quantities.
        The report of the International Energy Agency in January indicated that in the IV quarter of 2014 excess supply (the difference between supply and demand) amounted to 890 thousand barrels. In comparison with the previous quarter, it's 170 thousand barrels more oversupply a day. For the first half of 2015 the IEA predicts reduction in demand by 900 thousand barrels per day compared to the IV quarter 2014. The agency expects growth in demand not earlier than in the III quarter of this year, and to this this lays forecast the IEA lays a decline of North America production.

        Analysts say that at the moment it is difficult to predict the movement of the oil market, because during the past year oil prices were almost always supported by geopolitical risks. This year, such a situation is also possible - in case of such risks, the price can quickly grow by $ 20 a barrel or even more.

        Also, the price can depend on the OPEC decisions about the decline in production. Note that some of the exporting countries were ready to change the quota, but others expressed strong protest against it, with the fear to lose the market share.
        Vista Brokers analysts note that on Wednesday the price of oil on world markets is growing on the information that the ECB is close to the adoption of more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy. If Mario Draghi today will announce the launch of quantitative easing, it can support oil. Today, March futures for WTI crude oil on the Comex rose by 2.8% to $ 47.78 per barrel. March futures for Brent in London rose by 2.2% to $ 49.03 a barrel.

        Comment


        • #34
          Vista Brokers: Euro Fell against Major Competitors



          As markets had expected, on Thursday the ECB announced the launch of the quantitative easing program. Against this background, the EUR / USD broke the 1.14 level, and continued to decline, stopping only at the level of 1.1380.

          Vista Brokers analysts point out thatthe large-scale program of bonds purchasing will become the long term factor of pressure for the euro. Yesterday, the single currency was trading at 11-year low against the dollar, 3-month low against the yen, and 7-year low against the pound.

          QE starting was the anticipated event for the markets. As experts predicted, the ECB will buy bonds from March 2015 until September 2016. Thus, the euro zone economy will regularly be supported by new liquidity, and by the end of the program, it will receive € 1 trillion. The volume of monthly purchases will be 60 billion euros.

          Note that the Bundesbank, the central bank of the eurozone's largest economy, was against such aggressive measures to stimulate the economy of the region. They said about the illegality of such measures in terms of the European Union legislation and also claimed that the weak eurozone economy in such conditions will not have an incentive to carry out important economic reforms.

          Analysts say that amid the aggressive ECB actions, the US economy currently looks like an island of stability, and it will support the US currency. The dollar index on Thursday rose from 92.78 to 94.02 points.

          Comment


          • #35
            Market Pulse 23.01



            On Friday, the ECB's decision to launch the stimulation program will still impact on the market. Therefore, the actions of its members may be contrary to the outgoing news. Nevertheless, some important publications in European countries and Canada should be noted .

            8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - January (France)
            8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - January (France)
            8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - January (France)

            Strong impact on the market (EUR). Flash manufacturing PMI is considered to be the most important of these indices. It is currently below 50, which is considered to be the deterioration of the overall situation. Nevertheless, analysts expect a slight growth of these three indicators in January.

            8:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - January (Germany)
            8:30 ** Flash Services PMI - January (Germany)
            8:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - January (Germany)

            Strong impact on the market (EUR). In Germany, the indices are slightly higher than 50. Analysts expect a slight growth of these three indicators.

            9:00 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - January (euro zone)
            9:00 ** Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q1 (euro zone)
            9:00 ** Flash Services PMI - January (euro zone)
            9:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - January (euro zone)

            Strong impact on the market (EUR). Given the high market volatility caused by the decision of the ECB it is unlikely that these publications will have a strong impact on the euro, even if the values of indices will exceed forecasts.

            9:30 *** Retail Sales With Auto Fuel - December (UK)
            9:30 ** Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel - December (UK)

            Strong impact on the market (GPB). Growth of these indices (or the forecast excessing) reflects the upturn of consumer activity that strengthens the currency. This important indicator during the release can seriously affect the pound.

            13:30 *** Consumer Price Index - December (Canada)
            13:30 *** Core CPI - December (Canada)
            13:30 *** Retail Sales - December (Canada)
            13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - December (Canada)

            Strong impact on the market (CAD). The portion of important statistics can have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar. It is expected that inflation in Canada will again show a decrease, while the volume of retail sales will rise slightly.

            Comment


            • #36
              Vista Brokers: Markets after ECB's Decision



              Yesterday's announcement of the European Central Bank about the launch of quantitative easing in March caused strong fluctuations in the financial markets, which continues today.

              In particular, stock markets are rising in Asia, the USA, Australia, South Korea etc. Vista Brokers analysts note that S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.5%, the Japanese Nikkei - by 1%, the MSCI Asia-Pacific - by 0.9%. In Europe stocks and eurobonds are rising.

              Meanwhile, the euro against the dollar is still trading at 11-year low of about $ 1.1344, having lost 2% this week.Versus the yen the single currency fell to the 3-month low at 134.28 yen. The additional pressure on the euro have the upcoming elections in Greece, where extreme left political forces can win. Such a scenario can lead to the situation when the country will leave the euro zone.

              By the way, the participation of Greece in the ECB quantitative easing program open to question. According to Mario Draghi, the regulator will buy Greek government bonds, but only if Athens will fulfill all the program conditions. The radical SYRIZA party, which may come to power in Greece intends to cancel the austerity measures prescribed by international lenders, which may lead the country to default.

              In such a difficult situation, experts are wondering how the euro will behave in further. Societe Generale analysts note that the single currency can not fall without correction, but do not give specific predictions about this correction. HSBC said that the launch of the quantitative easing program should already be considered by the market, as the EUR / USD began to decline as early as mid-2014, when hints about the QE become less transparent. The Bank's experts talk about the possibility of the euro reducing to 1, but in such a case, the US Federal Reserve will begin to operate, because such a strengthening of the dollar will be not profitable for the USA.

              Comment


              • #37
                Vista Brokers: Saudi King's Death Feeds Oil Market Uncertainty



                On Friday, oil prices rise after the news about the death of Saudi Arabia King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. Brent is traded at $ 49.30 per barrel, WTI - at $ 46.70 per barrel.

                The crown of the country, which is the largest exporter of oil, goes to the Abdullah's brother, Salman. He has already said that the oil policy of the state remains unchanged, and the key in this area position of oil minister remains for Ali al-Naimi. Salman also intends to follow the OPEC policy in respect of oil production quotas.

                Vista Brokers analysts note that the change of government in Saudi Arabia has added uncertainty to the already snappish oil market, which is going down over the last six months. Earlier this year, the market has been falling and with the high volatility, but this week the price rebounded slightly, and Brent was traded at around $ 47.78 - $ 50.45 per barrel.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Vista Brokers: Euro on Friday was Traded under Pressure



                  At the end of the last week, the euro against the dollar has lost about 2.5% after the announcement of the ECB's decision to launch a program of quantitative easing. On Friday, the single currency was trading at 11-year low against the US currency. Against the yen, the euro reached a 16-month low at 130.91.

                  Vista Brokers analysts note that since the beginning of 2015 the EUR/USD has lost 7% and in January the pair can show the most significant monthly decrease since the crisis of 2009.

                  Today, the single currency may have another reason for the fall - the announcement of Greek election results. On Sunday, the country has held early parliamentary elections, and the radical left-wing party "Syriza" can come to power. In this case, Athens can stop paying public debts and review the conditions for receiving financial assistance. Although the leaders of the radical party say that a Greek exit from the eurozone is not in their plans, the market is considered in such a scenario.

                  Also this week, market participants will wait for the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place on Wednesday. After an unpleasant surprise from the Swiss National Bank and the announcement about the launch of QE from the ECB, investors want to be sure that the US central bank will not deviate from the course. Analysts remind that this year investors expect that the Fed will raise interest rates.

                  While the euro declines in the currency market, the dollar is rising not only against the single currency, but also against other major competitors. On Friday, the currency rose against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar amid prices for natural resources declined. It has become a factor of pressure on the resource-exporting countries.

                  The dollar index DXY rose from 94.26 to 94.74, reaching a new 11-year high.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Market Pulse 26.01



                    On Monday, Australian markets are closed - today the country celebrates Australia Day. Several important indicators will be released in Germany and the UK. Also this day willstart Eurogroup Meetings, which in relation to the recent ECB decision may attract the attention of traders.

                    9:00 *** Ifo Business Climate - January (Germany)
                    9:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - January (Germany)
                    9:00 ** IFO - Expectations - January (Germany)

                    Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that these three indicators of the German IFO Institute will show the growth compared to December. Recall that these indicators are based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesale and retail companies.

                    9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - December (UK)
                    9:30 ** MPC Member Kristin Forbes Speaks - December (UK)

                    Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The volume of mortgage lending shows the activity on the UK mortgage market. As for Kristin Forbes, her speech can influence on the pound, because it can show the mood of the Monetary Policy Committee.

                    14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - January (eurozone)

                    Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors conclude on the extent of buying bonds by the regulator. Expansion of purchases is a signal for greater activity of the ECB, which puts pressure on the euro.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Vista Brokers: Euro Hit 11-year low Amid Election Results in Greece



                      As expected, the left radical Syriza party whose leaders are against the cooperation with international creditors swept to victory in a snap election in Greece. Against this background, on Monday, the single currency broke through the 11-year low against the dollar and fell to $ 1.1098, the lowest level since September 2003.

                      The "Syriza" won 36.3% which infers 149 of 300 seats in the new Greek parliament. It means a very great power for radical forces and huge uncertainty for the whole Europe. The leader of the leftist Alexis Tsipras has said that the choice made by the Greek people, would entail the end of the austerity program. "Today the Greek people overturned an agreement with creditors - they brought us only poverty and misery. Now the dictates of creditors is in the past "- said Tsipras.

                      Vista Brokers analysts point out that it is unclear how the new Prime Minister of Greece, Tsipras will output from the difficult economic situation. It is clear that he will be able to achieve only some concessions from creditors, but not a complete debt write-off. The country is in a vicious circle, and is unable to finance its obligations on their own, given that it does not have access to financial markets. In summer Greece may need new injections to repay debts on schedule, and if the country ceases to comply with the terms of international lenders, it will not receive the money. In this case, the default or the “Grexit” (exit from the euro zone) are possible. This uncertainty scares markets.

                      Today, the euro is reduced not only against the dollar. EUR/JPY is at 11-year low - 130.16 yen. Also, the single currency fell against the pound to 7-year low – 74.06.

                      Analysts note that the position of the euro is very unstable after the announcement of the ECB quantitative easing program launch.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Vista Brokers: Euro Partly Reasserts itself



                        On Monday, the euro fell against the dollar to its lowest level since September 2003, when it became known that in Greece the opposition leftist coalition "Syriza" had won the elections. Markets concern that the new government may refuse to cooperate with international lenders or even initiate the process of exit from the eurozone. Against this background, the European currency fell by 0.3% against the dollar to $ 1.1167.

                        However, Vista Brokers analysts said that the market excitement about Greece had not lasted too long. At midday, the euro has already returned to the level of $ 1.1237 and continued to slowly reassert itself. Investors felt that the risks from so-called Grexit was overvalued.

                        According to a senior Nordea Bank analyst Niels Christensen, it is too early to worry about it, and there are no real prerequisites for the new round of debt crisis in the region development after the elections in Greece.

                        Meanwhile, the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that there is no plan for the Greek exit from the euro zone, and the country must adhere to budgetary rules established in the area. As for election promises of "Syriza" to reduce Greek debt, Deysselblum noted that the Eurogroup has already taken enough efforts to ease the debt burden of the country, and the debt can not be canceled.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Market Pulse 27.01



                          Tuesday's economic calendar is not too saturated. The Eurogroup meeting continues In Brussels, where among other issues, the victory of radical party "Syriza" in Greece is discussed. A number of important data will be released today in the United States.

                          9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - December (UK)
                          9:30 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (UK)

                          Strong impact on the market (GPB). It is expected that on a quarterly basis the UK economy slowed its growth compared to Q3, but on an annualised basis - it has accelerated. Growth or accelerate of the growth will be favorable to the pound.

                          13:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - December (US)
                          13:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - December (US)

                          Strong impact on the market (USD). Changing in the volume of orders for durable goods is a leading indicator of production trends, as well as the investment activity in the country. After the decrease in November, in December the indicator is expected to rise slightly.

                          15:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence - January (USA)
                          15:00 *** New Home Sales - December (US)

                          Strong impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index is based on a survey of households on the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and its development in the future. The growth of the confidence in the economy favorably affects the currency.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Vista Brokers: Long-term Trend for EUR/USD Remains Bearish



                            On Tuesday, the euro strengthened against the dollar after the EUR/USD had reached the 11-year low at $ 1.1098 on Monday. Here, many investors preferred to take profits, and this eased the pressure on the single currency. Today, as Vista Brokers analysts say, the euro against the dollar trades at $ 1.1238.

                            Experts remind that a large-scale selling of the euro last week was caused by the decision of the European Central Bank to launch a quantitative easing program. Earlier this week, the bearish trend for the single currency was supported by the news about the victory of the radical forces in the elections in Greece. At the moment, the market has already taken a lead from these news and the pair came to the phase of correction. Most likely it will not last too long.

                            Greece will remain a factor of pressure on the euro. Investors will be watching Alexis Tsipras in anticipation of any statements and explanations of how he plans to fulfill his campaign promises. Also, some negotiations of the new Greek government with international creditors will attract investors' attention.

                            Recall that Tsipras and his party "Syriza" promised the electorate a significant reduction of debt and getting out of austerity. It is still unclear how radicals plan to achieve it. But the higher ranks of the European Union have already commented on this situation, saying that the cancellation of debt for Greece would be no question.

                            Meanwhile, analysts of world's leading banks rush to cut their forecasts for the euro. UOB Bank expects a decline in EUR/USD to 1.1000 in the coming weeks. Danske Bank predicts a drop below support level 1.1000 in the next 6 months.

                            The dollar on Tuesday fell slightly against the yen to 118.26 yen. Last week, the US currency was trading against the Japanese in a fairly wide range, from 117 to 119 yen.

                            The greenback this week may be strong influenced by the US Federal Reserve meeting, which starts today and will last two days. Investors are waiting for confirmation from the American regulator about the policy of monetary tightening.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Vista Brokers: On Tuesday Oil Rose above $48



                              On Tuesday, oil rose above $48 per barrel, recovering positions after falling amid the weakness of the dollar against the euro.Vista Brokers analysts say that Brent crude oil has risen by 22 cents to $ 48.38 a barrel. Meanwhile, WTI is traded at $ 45.25 per barrel.

                              In the currency market, the euro is rising against the dollar, correcting from the punched on Monday 11-year low. Some market participants expect the Fed meeting would not justify expectations of relatively stable path to the interest rates growth.

                              Also the oil is supported by comments of the OPEC general secretary Abdullah El-Badri, who had said that the price of oil may even exceed $ 200 per barrel if there would be a lack of investment.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Vista Brokers: Markets Wait for FOMC decision



                                On Thursday US stock indexes moved down under a pressure from disappointing U.S. durable goods orders data. In December durable goods orders decreased by 3.4% against the expected growth of 0.6%. The core index fell by 0.8% against the expected growth of 0.6%.

                                Against this backdrop, US stock indexes were down around 2%. DJI fell by 2.05% to 17,316.42. SPX - by 1.61% to 2,023.91. IXIC – by 2.09% to 4,672.06.

                                Vista Brokers analysts note that expectations for this year's first Fed meeting was also the factor of pressure for the US stock market. Investors look forward FOMC to express its commitment to the course of monetary tightening marked earlier. Doubts about the Fed raising rates occurred after the ECB had announced the launch of an ambitious quantitative easing program.

                                According to experts, any statements of the Fed about the strong US labor market will support expectations of rates growth in the middle of this year. The references about the problems of the world economy or low inflation will enhance the excitement in markets.

                                Using the doubts of market participants about the US dollar, the euro recovered the second consecutive day against the US currency. On Tuesday, the euro has moved up from 11-month high reached on Monday morning on the news about the Greek elections results.

                                On commodity markets oil and gold are rising. Brent futures on Tuesday were trading at $ 48.37 per barrel, WTI - at $ 45.47 per barrel. Spot gold rose by 0.5% to $ 1,287.30 per ounce.

                                Comment

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