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  1. #1
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    Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

    Vistabrokers CIF Ltd is an International Investment and Brokerage Company, registered in the European Union and licensed by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (190/13).



    The protection of Clients’ rights and interests are guaranteed by European Legislation, the Investors Compensation Fund and License requirements for Investment and Brokerage services providers.

    Vistabrokers is managed by financial market professionals with decades of experience in the financial industry. Through its business activities the Company’s management is guided by principles and approaches that center on aspects such as excellent customer service, innovation, fast and reliable execution.

    Other business criteria such as Equilibrium, Reputation, Responsibility, Leadership, Honesty, Partnership, Innovations, and Quality are those Company strives to fully achieve and comply with. The Company aims to be the Broker with a human face; an aspect which we will achieve via our personal and honest relation with our clients. Our mission is based on Philosophy & Evolution.

    Our Philosophy is to be the Broker with a human face – people working for people. And our Evolution is to open the doors for Investors to the world’s financial instruments through creating unique approaches & concepts in online trading.
    Last edited by Vistabrokers; 05-04-2016 at 08:13 AM.

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    Euro’s fate ahead of Greek Election

    Greek Presidential Elections


    The EURUSD has been dropping in recent days and appears to have found some support at the 2.5 year low of 1.2165 ahead of the Greek Presidential election. The elections of one of the Eurozone’s most weak and fragile economy is said to trigger fresh anxiety over the country’s future as part of the single currency. The voting is due to start at 10:00 GMT, with the results likely to take up to an hour to surface. The last round of voting which was on the 23rd of December saw Antonis Samaras, Greece’s Prime Minister, with a dozen seats short (168 out of 300) of the number he will need to elect a new president.

    The Greek elections are scheduled in 3 ballots which are held on the 17th, 23rd and 29th of December (2014). All eyes are fixed on today’s election which will see the final chance to elect a new president and avert a snap election – something which, alarmingly for the Euro, could see the leftwing Syriza party come to power; a party which is strongly opposed to the country’s international bailout and austerity being demanded by the EU member states.

    The country’s Prime Minister is set to appoint his nominee, Stavors Dimas, as President. If Mr. Samaras fails to get adequate votes, then this would lead to a general election which is likely to take place towards the end of January (some couple of weeks short of the country’s 240 Billion Euro bailout expiration). Should this occur, opinion polls have shown that the opposition group, Syriza, would win power.

    Should a scenario which sees the Syriza party elected to power occur, investors expect to see a sharp drop in the single currency and see the EURUSD pair head towards its 3.5 year low of 1.2041 or lower. Movement in the markets is generally limited, with many investors opting to either hedge or close positions ahead of the New Year holidays – a move which is aimed at protecting investments against the expected sharp and volatile markets that are often experienced throughout the December holidays.

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    Last edited by Vistabrokers; 12-29-2014 at 01:56 PM.

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    Greek woes weigh on Asian shares and Euro



    Today’s first session saw a rise in the selloff of Asian shares as recent uncertainty over Greece’s future in the Eurozone, coupled with a higher demand for the safe haven USD has seen risk appetite drop globally. The drop in share prices is also expected to hit the European zone with some predicting the FTSE100 opening up at 0.4% lower than its close.

    The full scale of the effect of the postponed Greek election for a President may still not be truly realized in Asia as volumes are very thin around the New Year holidays with Japanese markets closing between Wednesday and Friday. The Japanese NIKKEI stock average was trimmed some 1.6% on its last trading day of 2014, however this still marks a yearly gain of 7.1%. In spite of its drastic last day drop in value, many investors have a hawkish outlook over the Japanese economy further to the imposed inflationary policies from the Bank of Japan and the country’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which are to continue into 2015.

    Greece assisted in the Euro’s drop to new 2.5 year lows yesterday (at 1.2123) against the USD, as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras was unable to obtain enough seats (short by a dozen at 168 of 300) to support his presidential nominee, forcing a national election on January 25th. Many in the Eurozone fear this will open way for the Syriza party to be placed in power – a party which is strongly opposed to the recent austerity measures and who have openly made it clear that they wish to renegotiate the country’s bailout which it received from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

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    USD set to gain 12% in 2014



    The USD has had a very good year in 2014 in terms of appreciation of its currency. It is currently set to make the biggest gain against a basket of currencies, which sits at around 12%, since 2005. The Greenback is expected by investors to continue its rise well into 2015, a great sign for the US economy and a restoration of the USD as a major safe haven currency. The last time the USD saw such a yearly gain was back in 2005 when it gained almost 13% - the only year in 30 in which it had made yearly gains of over 10%.

    Although some currencies such as the Euro and Yen have had some retracement from record lows they were reached over the Christmas period, it has been in this trade. Some investors expect the EURUSD to continue its downfall until the critically psychological level of 1.2000 – a level last seen in June 2010. The Dollar Index, a measure between the USD and a basket of 6 Major currencies, was last seen at 89.97 level.

    They USD has been greatly boosted by the recent simulative monetary policies in the Eurozone as well as turbulence between member states and the continuation of the bailout of Greece said to be back on the table. The Japanese yen also assisted in the Dollars gain as it drove the USDJPY to an 8.5 year high – a point which was reached in yesterday’s trading. The Federal Reserve has also hinted towards an earlier than expected interest rate rise, a move which boosted confidence and demand for the US currency.

    There are also some concerned investors, seeing the recent gain of the USD as a possible drawback for the future of the safe haven currency. The fact that a large part of the gains was accumulated towards the end of 2014 and in a short timeframe, has led some to speculate that the Fed may regard this as a suffice boost to the USD and hence delay the increase of country’s interest rates.

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    Plunging OIL sees risk aversion as Investors flock to Yen



    The Yen was buoyant today following a sharp decline in crude oil and stocks which resurfaced concerns regarding the global economy. Additionally growing fears in the Eurozone’s stability and measures to be taken against deflation have seen a more conserved side to investors.

    The USDJPY dropped to 118.64 from Monday’s high of 120.68 as it distanced itself from the 7 year high of 121.86 which was reached last month. The decline in the US treasury yields also further added to the buoyant dollar against the Yen as the 10 year yields descended some 14 basis points within 2 sessions. This is expected to be a temporary drop for the US treasuries as the recent healthy outlook for the Dollar should help raise the yields back up.

    The recent constant decline of OIL prices coupled with political uncertainty in Greece ahead of a snap election to be held later this month, have forced a more conservative view from investors, as the Wall Street was sent to its biggest 1 day drop in over 3 months yesterday. Constant rumors of the Eurozone losing ots first member – Greece – has further drained confidence in the single currency.

    The Euro recently reached a 9 year low at 1.1856 before retracing some of those losses and currently trading around the 1.1895 levels. Pressure is on the ECB to introduce quantitative easing sooner than previously planned and skepticism has hence surrounded the single currency. European shares remained subdued in today’s early session, underpinning safe-haven flows.

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    Dollar gains across board, Euro at fresh 9 year low



    The Euro continued its decline today, falling to a new 9 year low of 1.1817 against the Dollar as fears for the Eurozone economy were kindled by data which showed the euro zone prices declining for the first time since 2009. The Eurozone consumer prices dropped lowed than expected to 0.2% per annum in December, further to the much cheaper energy we have recently seen. The recent pile on of bad news must surely put enormous pressure on the European Central Bank to take immediate measures to revive the EU economy.

    Eurozone prices, excluding seasonal energy and unprocessed food, remained steady at 0.7% in December, while prices with the exclusion of Alcohol and tobacco rose to 0.8%. The initial news saw some support of the Euro as it re-cooped some losses, however this was short lived and saw the EURUSD drop to a new 9 year low. In addition, the positive news from Germany of a reduced unemployment change of -27K, some 11K less than the expected value of -16K, did not manage to suede investors in purchasing the Euro.

    The Greenback rose to a 9 year high against a basket of currencies, reaching a level of 92.02. FOMC minutes, due to be released at 19:00 GMT, should see some choppy/ volatile movement in the USD. The non-farm payrolls are scheduled for later in the week, which will be very crucial this month in giving a further push or pull to the Dollar against a basket of currencies and very importantly against the Euro.

    Commodities continued their decline, with Brent reaching below the crucial $50 level, marking a 5.5 year low. The much reliant Canadian Dollar dropped also to a 52.5 year low to 1.1870 against the Dollar while the Norway crown headed towards a 12.5 year low

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    Euro continues to reach fresh 9 year lows



    The Euro extended losses once again today, failing to find any significant support levels since the beginning of the year. This marks 6 days of straight losses for the single currency against the Dollar. In just over half a year, the Euro has managed to drop some 19 cents – over 13.5% of its June high of 1.3699. Investors are anticipating that the ECB will soon step in and adopt its quantitative easing stimulus in order to attempt to keep the Euro away from its current deflationary status. The pair currently trades at 1.1761 against the Dollar.

    The recent decline of German industrial orders for November saw further doubt cast on the Euro, pilling on top of already existing concern that a Greek general election on January 25th may lead to turmoil between Europe and Greece over the existing austerity measures, which Greece had previously agreed to.

    Currently the Euro is anticipated to continue its decline, as we come up to the ECB meeting on the 22/01 and expect more short positions to continue driving down the EURUSD pair. The next strong support level for the pair is seen at 1.1638 – the November 2005 low.

    The Federal Reserve, in comparison, is expected to raise its interest rates as early as Q1 in 2015, which has further pushed the USD to gain against the Euro as the USA economy has recently shown signs of a healthy outlook. The Dollar climbed above 119.75 Yen as it moved away from a 3 week trough around 118.40, while the Dollar index remained near the 9 year high.

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    Euro near 9 year low on Greek woes



    The Euro remained near the 9 year low today as expectations of a European Central Bank Intervention with a quantitative easing stimulus grew. Investors are a little reserved for now, siting US jobs and unemployment data which is scheduled to be released later in the day.

    European Central Bank president Mario Draghi yesterday commented that the bank’s governing council is ready to implement all conventional and unconventional measures that may be needed to lift up the recent stagnation in inflation and sustain the interest rate from going into deflation. This has risen expectations that there most almost certainly be some intervention measures introduced further to the bank’s meeting on January 22nd.

    The EURUSD has traded most of today rather steadily, when comparing to past days, and is oscillating between the $1.1815 and $1.1770 levels. The Euro had as recent as yesterday reached a fresh all-time low of 1.1752, from which it has retraced. The single currency was gloomed further to figures released which showed the Eurozone’s 2 biggest economies (France and Germany) had a pessimistic figure on Industrial outlook as well as Germany’s export figures experiencing a sharp drop.

    Another suppressing issue for the single currency is the Greek general elections, which will take place further to the countries prime minister – Mr. Samaras – failing to secure enough votes for his candidate, which will take place on January 25th. The elections are expected to lead to a standoff between Greece and Athens with respect to the Austerity measures which Greece had agreed to in order to receive the much needed emergency bailout.

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    Vista Brokers: Data on the US labor market were mixed



    On Friday, the market was expected the data on unemployment rate and non-farm employment change in the US.

    Statistics surpassed analysts' forecasts: nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 in December, against a forecast of 241 000. Thus, the indicator grows the 11th consecutive month, which is the longest period of growth since 1994. Data for October and November were also revised to increase. The unemployment rate fell in December by 0.2% to 5.6%, while the experts expected a decline to only 5.7%.

    Vista Brokers analysts note that while hiring in the US is growing steadily, the average hourly wage does not support this trend. Compared to the previous month in December indicator decreased by 0.2%. Nevertheless, the positive data on unemployment and non-farm payrolls forced market participants to talk about raising interest rates o the Federal Reserve.

    Large banks surveyed by Reuters, believes that the rate will begin to rise in June, but the financial markets are not so sure in it. FOMC member Dennis Lockhart said that despite the strong statistics on employment, the regulator needs to exercise caution before raising rates. He believes that this question must be lifted no earlier than mid-year.

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    Market Pulse 12.01

    On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty. There will be no important data, so it's likely the market will continue to take a lead from the information received on Friday. Investors' attention may be attracted with the FOMC member Dennis Lockhart speech.

    14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase

    Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors and market observers conclude on the extent of securities purchases the European Central Bank makes on its balance sheet. Low values can provide support, while the expansion of purchases is a signal of greater activity of the ECB, which reduces the rate and pressures on the euro.

    15:00 ** Labor Market Conditions Index - December (US)

    Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is calculated on the basis of 19 other market indicators. As a rule, it does not have a profound effect on the market, but can confirm earlier trends.

    17:40 ** FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks - January (USA)

    Moderate impact on the market (USD). Dennis Lockhart is the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a voting member of the FOMC, that is, its opinion affects the monetary policy committee. Therefore, the remarks in his speech can cause volatility in the markets.

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