Market Outlook By Commexfx

Daily Outlook 19-09-2014

EUR USD

The EUR rose 0.63% against the USD and closed at 1.2918.

Yesterday, the ECB in its first of eight Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) to be carried out between 2014 and 2016, allocated €82.6 billion to 255 counterparties at a fixed interest rate of 0.15%, less than market consensus for an allotment of €150.0 billion.

In the US, number of initial jobless claims registered a drop to 280K in the week ended 13 September 2014, marking its lowest level since July, beating market expectations to drop to a level of 305K and compared to a revised reading of 316K in the prior week.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.287, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2823. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2948, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2979. Going forward, investors would look forward to the release of the CB Leading Indicator from the US.

GBP USD

the GBP rose 1.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6434, after the UK retail sales advanced 0.4%, on a monthly basis, in August, exceeding market expectations for a gain of 0.3%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6318, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6153. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6587, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6691. Going forward, the outcome of a highly awaited voting result on the Scottish independence would keep the investors on their toes.

USD JPY

The USD strengthened 0.15% against the JPY and closed at 108.74.

the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that despite recent economic data revealing weak industrial production and exports in Japan, but he continues to remain upbeat on the recovery of nation’s exports, citing improvements in the world economy.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.06. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.6, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.03. Trading trends in the Yen today would be determined by Japan’s coincident and leading indices revealing the economic health of the nation, scheduled to release in a few hours.

USD CHF

the USD declined 0.90% against the CHF and closed at 0.9344. The Swiss Franc gained ground after the SNB kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0%, in line with market expectations in September. The central bank, further cautioned that Switzerland’s economic outlook has deteriorated considerably and trimmed its domestic growth forecast for 2014 to 1.5% from 2% and kept its inflation forecast steady at 0.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9275. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9457. Amid a lack of domestic economic data, investors would keenly await SNB’s Q3 Bulletin, due on Wednesday, to get more insights on the Swiss economy.

Daily Outlook 24-09-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR traded marginally lower against the USD and closed at 1.2847, after the manufacturing PMI in Germany, Euro-zone’s biggest economy dropped to 50.3 in September .

In the US, the manufacturing PMI remained steady at 57.9 in September, compared to market expectations of a rise to 58.0. Meanwhile, the housing price index rose 0.1%, on a monthly basis. Yesterday, the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in a conference, stated that he expects the first move of hiking the interest rates by the Fed would be employed at the end of the first quarter 2015.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2827, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2801. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2891, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2929.

GBP/USD

The GBP rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.6391.

In economic news, the UK mortgage approvals registered an unexpected drop to a level of 41.6K in August, lower than market expectations of a rise to 42.9K and following a revised reading of 42.8K registered in the p The pair is expected to find support at 1.633, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6259. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6444, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6487. Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by economic news from other countries.

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 108.83.

Early morning data indicated that, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in Japan unexpectedly eased to 51.7 in September, lower than market expectations of a rise to a level of 52.5 and down from 52.2 in August. The pair is expected to find support at 108.25, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.39.

USD/CHF

The USD traded flat against the CHF and closed at 0.9398.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9332. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9414, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9434. Going forward, investors keenly await the SNB’s Q3 bulletin to get more insights on the Swiss economy, scheduled in a few hours.

Daily Outlook 25-09-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR declined 0.55% against the USD and closed at 1.2776.

Yesterday, the Euro further lost ground after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, in an interview, stated that the central bank would keep its monetary policy accommodative for a considerable period of time. In the US, the new home sales surged 18.0%, on a monthly basis, in August to 504,000 units, marking its biggest one-month gain since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 2008, following a revised increase of 1.9% to 427,000 units registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, number of mortgage applications in the nation dropped 4.1% on a weekly basis in the week ended 19 September, following a rise of 7.9% recorded in the prior week.

The Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, indicated that although there is improvement in the US jobs market but the country’s economy still needs help from the extended period of low interest rates. He, further, urged that the Fed should remain “exceptionally patient” before hiking its interest rates and should be more concerned towards boosting the jobs market.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2737, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2703. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2834, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2897.

GBP/USD

The GBP fell 0.37% against the USD and closed at 1.6331.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6286, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6251. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6385, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6449.

Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech, the first after Scottish referendum, scheduled later today.

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.33% against the JPY and closed at 109.19.

Earlier today, data indicated that the Japanese corporate service price index rose 3.5%, on an annual basis, in August, lower than market expectations for a 3.7% gain and compared to a revised increase registered in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 108.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.87. Going forward, investors would await Japan’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in the early hours tomorrow.

USD/CHF

The USD rose 0.67% against the CHF and closed at 0.9461.

In economic news, Swiss UBS consumption indicator declined to 1.35 in August, compared to a revised reading of 1.67 reported in the past month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9411, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9361. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9487, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9513.

Daily Outlook 30-09-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR rose 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.2690.

On the macro front, consumer prices in Germany came in flat, on a monthly basis, in September, similar to an unchanged reading registered in the previous month. In other economic news, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment indicator recorded a drop to 99.9 in September. In the US, pending home sales dropped 1.0% on a monthly basis in August, more than market. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2667, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2639. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2719, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2743.

Trading trends in the Euro today would be determined by the Euro-zone’s crucial CPI as well as unemployment data, scheduled in a few hours.

GBP/USD

The GBP rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at 1.6243.

Net consumer credit in the UK advanced by £0.9 billion in August, more than market expectations of £0.8 billion. It had risen by £1.1 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchases in Britain dropped to 64.2K.

Overnight data indicated that, the Gfk consumer confidence in the UK eased to -1.0 in September. The pair is expected to find support at 1.622, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6187. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6281, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6309.

Trading trends in the Pound today would be determined by Britain’s crucial GDP figures.

USD/JPY

The USD weakened 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 109.40.

Earlier today, data indicated that unemployment rate in Japan unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% in August, registering a 16-year low, lower than market expectations to rise to 3.8% and following a similar level registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, industrial production in Japan unexpectedly eased 1.5% on a monthly basis in August, less than market expectations for an advance of 0.2% and compared to 0.4% rise registered in the previous month.

USDCHF

The USD declined 0.12% against the CHF and closed at 0.9511.The pair is expected to find support at 0.9485, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9464. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9531, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9556.

Trading trends in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator, scheduled in a few hours.

Daily Outlook 7-10-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR rose 1.12% against the USD and closed at 1.2652. On the macro front, the Sentix consumer confidence in the Euro-zone eased for the third consecutive month in October to -13.7, registering its lowest level since May 2013. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2525, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2439. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2686, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2761. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by Germany’s industrial production data, set for release in a few hours.

GBP/USD

The GBP rose 0.75% against the USD and closed at 1.6077.In economic news, new car registrations in the UK registered a rise of 5.6%, on an annual basis, in September. It follows an increase of 9.4% registered in the prior month. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5961, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5891. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6101, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6171. Trading trends in the Pound today would be mainly determined by the NIESR’s UK GDP estimate for the three months to September, scheduled later in the day.

USD/JPY

The USD weakened 0.90% against the JPY and closed at 108.82. The pair is expected to find support at 108.68, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.71, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.21. Going forward, market participants await Japan’s leading economic as well as coincident indices data, scheduled shortly.

USD/CHF

The USD declined 0.97% against the CHF and closed at 0.9586. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9562, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9509. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9673, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9731.Meanwhile, investors would keep a close eye on Swiss consumer prices data, scheduled in a few hours.

Daily Outlook 17-10-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR declined 0.07% against the USD and closed at 1.2810. In economic news, the Euro-zone’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% on a MoM basis in September, at par with market expectations. The US Dollar traded on a higher footing after the initial unemployment claims in the US surprisingly fell to 264,000 in the week ended October 11, marking its lowest level in 14-years. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2723, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2858, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2917. Meanwhile, investors await Michigan’s consumer confidence and housing starts data from the US, as well as the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen’s speech, scheduled later today.

GBP/USD

the GBP rose 0.67% against the USD and closed at 1.6102. Yesterday, the BoE Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe stated that new regulations governing banks and financial institutions must be applied consistently across the globe in order to avoid another banking crisis. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5977, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5874. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6147, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6214. Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by economic releases from other countries.

USD/JPY

the USD strengthened 0.40% against the JPY and closed at 106.44. Early this morning, the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda expressed optimism on the country’s improving economy and reiterated that the central bank would continue with its quantitative easing policy until its inflation target of 2% is not achieved. The pair is expected to find support at 105.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.1. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.71, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.11.

USD/CHF

the USD rose 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 0.9424. The Swiss Franc lost ground after Switzerland’s SECO downgraded the nation’s economic growth forecast for 2014 to 1.8% from its previous growth of 2.0%. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9394, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9356. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9481, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9530. Amid lack of economic releases from Switzerland today, investor sentiments would be governed by global macroeconomic news.

Daily Outlook 23-10-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR declined 0.52% against the USD and closed at 1.2646.

The greenback traded on a stronger footing after the US consumer prices advanced 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, beating market expectations. The MBA mortgage applications in the US rose 11.6% in the week ended October 17, after registering 5.6% gain in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.26, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2562. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2708, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2778.

Trading trends in the Euro today would be determined by the manufacturing and services PMI from the Euro-zone and Germany, its biggest economy, scheduled in a few hours from now. Meanwhile, investors would keenly look at the US initial jobless claims data, scheduled later today.

GBP/USD

The GBP fell 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.6046, after the minutes of the BoE’s latest policy meeting revealed that majority of the policymakers voted to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5994, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5942. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6115, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6184. Going forward, market participants look forward to the UK’s retail sales data as well the BoE’s MPC member Ben Broadbent’s speech, scheduled in a few hours.

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.12% against the JPY and closed at 107.17. Early morning data indicated that, Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 52.8 in October, up from previous month’s reading of 51.7. Separately, the IMF gave Japan the green signal to go ahead with a second sales tax hike next year in order to maintain credibility of the nation’s fiscal framework. The pair is expected to find support at 106.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.76.

USD/CHF

The USD rose 0.48% against the CHF and closed at 0.9538. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9496, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9444. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9575, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9602.

Weekly Outlook 3-11-2014

EUR USD

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2485 last week and the breach of 1.2500 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.3993. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. On the upside, above 1.2613 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2886 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.

GBP USD

GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.5876 should be completed at 1.6184 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.5876 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. In any case, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6226 resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. However, break of 1.6226 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6523 resistance instead.

In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are forming the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.

USD JPY

USD/JPY surged to as high as 112.47 last week and the strong break of 110.08 resistance confirmed up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 114.19. Break will target 161.8% projection at 119.75 next. On the downside, below 111.45 minor support will bring brief consolidations before staging another rise.

In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.

USD CHF

USD/CHF’s rebound suggests that pull back from 0.9688 has completed at 0.9359 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.9688 first. Break will extend that larger rise from 0.8698 towards 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 0.9543 minor support will probably extend the correction from 0.9688 with another fall. . But in that case, we’d continue to expect strong support inside 0.9300/9395 support zone to complete the correction and bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).

Daily Outlook 6-11-2014

EUR/USD

the EUR declined 0.62% against the USD and closed at 1.2475. Germany’s services PMI expanded less than expected to 54.4 in October, against market expectations for a level of 54.8. indicating a worsening situation in the nation’s economy. Meanwhile, the region’s monthly retail sales retreated 1.3% in September, dropping to its lowest level since April 2012, more than market expected drop of 0.8% and compared to a gain of 0.9% recorded in August, thus stoking fears that the region could fall into another recession. In economic news, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropped to a 4-month low of 57.1 in October, compared to a reading of 58.6 in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2441, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2393. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2552, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2615. Trading trends in the Euro today would be governed by the ECB’s interest rate decision, scheduled later today. Meanwhile, investors would closely watch the US initial jobless claims data for further cues.

GBP/USD

the GBP fell 0.26% against the USD and closed at 1.5966, after the UK services PMI dropped to a level of 56.2 in October, marking its lowest reading since May 2013, more than market expectations to drop to a level to 58.5 and compared to previous month’s mark of 58.7, thus dampening optimism over the health of the Britain economy. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5881, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5797. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6036, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6107.Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the BoE’s crucial interest rate decision, scheduled later in the day.

USD/JPY

the USD strengthened 1.09% against the JPY and closed at 114.70. Earlier today, the BoJ minutes from its October monetary policy meeting indicated that policy board members remained upbeat that the nation’s economy was expected to continue to recover moderately and the effects of sales tax hike in April 2014 would ease gradually. In economic news, Japan’s leading index climbed to a level of 105.6 in September, higher than market expectations for a reading of 105.5. The pair is expected to find support at 114.03, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 115.95, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.70.

USD/CHF

The USD rose 0.57% against the CHF and closed at 0.9649. The Swiss Franc lost ground, after Switzerland’s monthly consumer prices remained flat in October, after advancing 0.1% in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9595, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9549. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9675, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9709. Going forward, investors look forward to Switzerland’s SECO consumer confidence index, set for release in a few hours from now.

Weekly Outlook 10-11-2014

EUR USD

EUR/USD’s fall extended to as low as 1.2357 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But upside of rebound should be limited well below 1.2886 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.

GBP USD

GBP/JPY’s fall from 1.7190 extended last week and reached as low as 1.5789. Initial bias remains on the downside for further decline to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. Sustained break will pave the way to 1.4813 key support level. On the upside, above 1.5926 minor resistance will bring recovery. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6184 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected.

In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.

USD JPY

USD/JPY rose to 115.57 last week as recent up trend continued. A temporary top is formed there and consolidations would be seen initially this week first. But downside of pull back should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 112.48) and bring another rise. Above 115.57 will target 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next.

In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.

USD CHF

USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8698 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.9741. A temporary top is in place and initial bias is neutral this week first. Some consolidations would be seen but downside of retreat should be contained well above 0.9359 support and bring another rally. Above 0.9741 will target 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone.

In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).

http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-10-11-2014/

Daily Outlook 12-11-2014

EUR/USD

The EUR rose 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.2474. In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to a level of 96.10 in October, compared to a level of 95.30 registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, the nation’s Redbook index on a yearly basis recorded a rise of 3.80% in the week ended 07 November, following a rise of 3.90% recorded in the prior week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2407, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2348. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2513, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2560. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s industrial production data, set for release in a few hours.

GBP/USD

The GBP rose 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.5920. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5848, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5786. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5960, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6010. Looking ahead, investors await the UK’s ILO unemployment rate, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, the BoE’s quarterly inflation report will attract considerable market attention, scheduled later today.

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.91% against the JPY and closed at 115.89.The pair is expected to find support at 114.98, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 114.15. Earlier today, the BoJ Board Member Ryuzo Miyao stated that the central bank could start discussing about winding up its ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half of fiscal 2015, as the recent stimulus expansion decision had increased the probability of the BoJ meeting its 2% inflation target. Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s tertiary industry index rebounded 1.0% on a monthly basis in September, following a drop of 0.1% recorded in the previous month. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 116.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.94. Going forward, investors look forward to Japan’s annual machine orders data for further cues, scheduled overnight.

USD/CHF

The USD declined 0.36% against the CHF and closed at 0.9646. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9618, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9583. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9695, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9737.

Weekly Outlook 17-11-2014

EUR USD

EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.2357 continued last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2613 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, break of 1.2357 will indicate short term bottoming with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 1.2886 resistance.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.

GBP USD

GBP/USD’s decline from 1.7190 extended to as low as 1.5592 last week and took out 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.7190 to 1.6051 from 1.6523 at 1.5384 next. On the upside, above 1.5789 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another decline.

In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.

USD JPY

USD/JPY’s up trend continued last week and reached as high as 116.82. Further rally is expected this week to 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. On the downside, break of 113.85 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.

USD CHF

USD/CHF’s consolidation from 0.9741 extended last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.9559 minor support intact, further rally is still expected. Above 0.9741 will extend the whole rise from 0.8698 to 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. Nonetheless, break of 0.9559 will argue that a short term top is in place at 0.9741, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to 0.9359 support and below.

In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).

http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-17-11-2014/

Good morning and welcome, you’re watching the CommexFX daily outlook for Thursday, December 11, 2014.

EUR/USD

The EUR rose 0.53% against the USD and closed at 1.2446. Yesterday, the ECB Executive Board member, Benoit Coeure urged governments of the Euro-zone member nations to introduce structural reforms in order to promote growth and overcome the period of low inflation in the Euro area. In the US, the budget deficit fell to $56.82 billion in November, while markets expected the nation’s budget deficit to fall to $65.00 billion. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2381, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2306. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2513, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2571. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by Germany’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, investors would closely monitor the US retail sales and weekly initial jobless claims data, scheduled later today.

GBP/USD

GBP rose 0.27% against the USD and closed at 1.5717, after Britain’s total trade deficit dropped more than anticipated to £2.02 billion in October. Separately, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee Member, Ian McCafferty opined that the central bank should start increasing its benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later and keep in mind that the hike should be “limited” and “gradual”. Yesterday, the British Chambers of Commerce projected the UK economy to grow 3% this year, as compared to its earlier projection of 3.2%; however the growth would be at its fastest pace in seven years. Earlier today, the RICS house price balance in the UK dropped to a reading of 13.0 in November, compared to market expectations of a drop to a level of 15.0. In the previous month, the house price balance had recorded a reading of 20.0 The pair is expected to find support at 1.5655, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5595. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5767, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5818. Amid no economic releases in the UK today, market sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic news.

USD/JPY

The USD weakened 1.41% against the JPY and closed at 117.94. Overnight data indicated that Japan’s machine orders retreated more than expected 6.4% on a monthly basis in October, against market expectations of 1.7%. Overnight data indicated that Japan’s machine orders retreated more than expected 6.4% on a monthly basis in October, against market expectations of 1.7% decline and following an advance of 2.9% registered in September. Additionally, the nation’s tertiary industry index eased 0.2% on a MoM basis in October, in line with market expectations and after registering a rise of 1.3% in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 117.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 116.21. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 119.28, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 120.51.

AUD/USD

The AUD strengthened 0.23% against the USD to close at 0.8319. Early morning data indicated that Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.3% in November, at par with market estimates and after advancing 6.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, number of employed people in the nation climbed more than expected by 42.7 K in November, against market expectations to add 15.0 K jobs and following a revised increase of 13.7 K registered in October. In other economic news, Australia’s consumer inflation expectation eased to 3.4% in December, after registering a level of 4.1% in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 0.8281, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8231. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8380, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8428.

XAU/USD

Gold prices traded lower by 0.28% against the USD at 1227.70 per ounce, reversing its previous session gains. The pair is expected to find support at 1224.03, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1217.76. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1237.73, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1245.16.

Commexfx is now offering a new application. Download the brand new CommexFX Trade Mate App right now and receive daily market predictions, suggested market directions to trade on, highlighted best trading options and more covering a wide range of markets including Energy, Metals, Indices and Forex among others.Trade easily, Trade Successfully. For more information on CommexFX Trade Mate App kindly visit our main website.

http://www.commexfx.com/daily-outlook-11-12-2014/

Weekly Outlook 26-01-2015

EUR USD

The broadly weaker euro dropped to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday one day after the European Central Bank unveiled a large scale asset purchase plan, aimed at boosting slowing growth and inflation in the euro zone.EUR/USD fell to 1.1118, the lowest since early September 2003 before pulling back to 1.1203 in late trade, still off 1.39% for the day. The euro ended the week down more than 3% against the dollar and has lost almost 7.5% so far this year.

GBP USD

GBP/USD’s down trend resumed last. week by breaking 1.5033 and reached as low as 1.4950. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for next key support level at 1.4813. On the upside, break of 1.5268 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

AUD USD

The Australian dollar tumbled more than 1% against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to hit the lowest level in more than five years, as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy boosted demand for safe haven assets. AUD/USD fell to 0.7882 on Friday, a level not seen since July 2009, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7908 by close of trade on Friday, down 1.43% for the day and 3.88% lower for the week.The pair is likely to find support at 0.7811, the low from July 14, 2009, and resistance at 0.8135, the high from January 22.

USD JPY

The dollar slid lower against the safe-haven yen on Friday as weakness in U.S. equities underpinned demand for the Japanese currency, while the broadly weaker euro fell to 16-month lows against the yen.USD/JPY was down 0.61% to 117.78 in late trade, not far from Wednesday’s lows of 117.17.U.S. stocks fell following soft corporate earnings, which sparked concerns over the potential impact of the stronger dollar.

GOLD

Gold edged lower on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar prompted investors to book profits from a recent rally which took prices to the highest level in more than five months.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery dipped $8.10, or 0.62%, to settle at $1,292.60 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday.

Monday, January 26

In Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.

Tuesday, January 27

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, January 28

In the euro zone, the Gfk Institute is to report on German consumer climate.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, January 29

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 30

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Germany is to report on retail sales, while Spain is to release preliminary data on GDP growth and inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-26-01-2015/