Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to massive decline

8/29/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.3056. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to see a local upward correction.

The last uptrend has been broken, which led to an achievement of a support at 1.3119. So, it’s likely to see a local correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.3160. However, bears are still strong, so the price is likely going to reach the next support at 1.3069 – 1.3032 in the short term.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10230

EUR/USD: wave iii going to be extended

8/29/2016

Wave © of [y] was formed last week, so there’s a downward impulse in wave (a), which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Therefore, wave iii of (a) is likely going to be continued in the short term. So, we should keep an eye on 1/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) as the next bearish target.

We’ve got a double zigzag in wave ii, which was ended last Friday. Also, there’s a bearish impulse in wave [1]. In this case, wave [3] of iii is likely going to move on towards 0/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300).

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10234

GBP/USD reversed from resistance zone

8/29/2016

GBP/USD reversed from resistance zone

Next sell target - 1.3000

GBP/USD continues to decline - following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3250 (which is the lower boundary of the powerful resistance area which reversed the pervious corrective waves (2) and 2, as can be seen below). The last downward reversal form this resistance zone created the strong daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star.

GBP/USD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) (which belong to the primary downward impulse wave ? from June) toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.3000.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10235

USD/JPY rising inside primary impulse wave ?

8/29/2016

USD/JPY rising inside primary impulse wave ?

Next buy target - 104.00

USD/JPY continues to rise inside the primary impulse wave ? - which started in the middle of August – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 100.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair, which also reversed USD/JPY sharply in June and July) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The pair is currently approaching the resistance level 102.65 (top of the previous intermediate (B)-wave). If the price breaks above the resistance level 102.65 - USD/JPY can then be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 104.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January).

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10236

EUR/USD: new "Window" came to hand

8/29/2016

The price found a lodgement under the Moving Averages, but the last bullish “Meeting Lines” pattern hasn’t been confirmed, so bears are likely going to move on towards the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, the pair achieved the 89 Moving Average, so it’s likely to see a bullish candle today. If so, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction.

We’ve got a new “Window”, which has been closed by the recent candles. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” pattern, but we’ve got a local “Harami” at the last low. This pattern is unconfirmed, so after a local correction, the market is likely going to achieve the nearest support line.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10237

USD/JPY: "Inverted Hammer" sent the market up

8/29/2016

There’s a bullish movement, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards the nearest “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a bullish “Harami” at the last low. So, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term.

The last “Inverted Hammer” led to massive bullish rally on Friday. However, there’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been confirmed by the “Three Black Crows” pattern. Under this circumstances, it’s likely to see a support by today’s “Window”. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we can have a new high soon.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10238

EUR/USD: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4

8/29/2016

EUR/USD declined last week closing below the July-August support line and 100-day MA at 1.1220. The decline was caused mainly by the strengthening of the US dollar.

The European fundamental factors don’t give the euro many reasons to rise either. There were some positive news from the region’s manufacturing sector, as German and euro zone’s manufacturing PMIs both pointed to expansion. However, German Ifo Business Climate dropped to 6-month low of 106.2 points in the August report. The nation’s economic growth slowed down from 0.7% in the 1st quarter to 0.4% in the 2nd quarter. Next week there will be more data releases from the euro area’s leading economy: retail sales, inflation and unemployment change. The euro area will publish inflation figures on Wednesday.

Technically it looks like after breaking support the euro may suffer further declines versus the greenback. Support is at 1.1140 and 1.1105 ahead of 1.1040. Strong resistance is in the 1.1250 area.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10239

GBP/USD: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4

8/29/2016

GBP/USD ended last week in the positive territory, but failed to stay at highs.

On the one hand, British pound was supported amid optimism that the consequences of the Brexit decision may not be as severe as first feared, after a report showed that UK consumer confidence rose the most in more than 3 years. On the other hand, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve made the US dollar strengthen - reminding about divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of England.

Technically GBP/USD turned lower from resistance line, which has been in place since the end of June and has potential to test support at 1.3020 and, perhaps, even at 1.29 in case of strong US statistics. Resistance is at 1.3180 and 1.3260.

Important events in British economic calendar include net lending to individuals on Tuesday, manufacturing PMI on Thursday and Construction PMI on Friday.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10240

USD/JPY: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4

8/29/2016

Last week USD/JPY managed to hold above 100.00 support and rise to 101.80 on the hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve.

In addition, data showed that Japanese core consumer prices fell for a fifth month in a row and marked the biggest annual drop in more than three years in July. Such statistics will keep the Bank of Japan under pressure to ease monetary policy in September and represent a bullish factor for USD/JPY.

Technically USD/JPY has potential to strengthen to 103.00/50 and 104.00 before it faces downtrend resistance line of 2016. Only a big increase in market’s expectations of the Fed’s rate hike will make the pair reverse the overall bearish trend, so be careful with bullish targets and look for the signals that the bullish correction is over at the mentioned resistance levels. Support is located at 101.80, 101.00 and 100.00.

Japan will release household spending on Tuesday, preliminary industrial production on Wednesday and capital spending on Thursday. Also watch US economic calendar.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10241

AUD/USD: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4

8/29/2016

AUD/USD formed a very bearish candle on Friday and fell below May-July support line. The decline of Australian dollar was caused by the general strength of the US dollar and a pause in advance of commodity prices.

This week Australia will release building approvals on Tuesday and private capital expenditure and retail sales on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Debelle will speak on Wednesday. The market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, the dynamics of Australian dollar will be also affected by China’s manufacturing and non0manufacturing indexes due on Thursday.

Support is at 0.7530, 0.7500 and 0.7455. Resistance is at 0.7600, 0.7650 and 0.7700. Selling Aussie on the pair’s attempts to recover seems like the best strategy.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10242

US dollar: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4

8/29/2016

US dollar index made strong gains on Friday closing above July-August resistance line. US currency has potential to strengthen to 95.95 (May high) and 96.00. Support is in the 94.95 area.

Data confirmed that US GDP growth has slowed down in Q2 from 2.6% to 1.1%. However, the market’s attention was focused not on this figures, but on comments from the Federal Reserve’s members. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen said in Jackson Hole that the case for an interest rate hike has strengthened in recent months as the labor market and economy have improved. As a result, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike rose from 21% to 33% for September and from 52% to 59% for December.

Although Yellen gave no hints on the timing of any hike, but Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer claimed that Yellen's speech was consistent with expectations for possible interest rate increases this year. Fisher’s words became the main bullish driver for the greenback. Fisher also noted that August nonfarm payrolls report, due on Friday, September 2, will play a big role in the Fed’s decision. Other important events in the US economic calendar this week include CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report Chicago PMI and pending home sales on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

All in all, the dynamics of the US dollar will be data-dependent. Members of the Federal Reserve are divided about a rate hike, to the market’s expectations of a rate hike may swing in either direction and have an impact on the currency.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10243

USD/JPY & CB Consumer Confidence: How long can be the correction in the US dollar?

8/30/2016

This week we'll have some major headlines in terms of macro data from the United States and today we'll start with the CB Consumer Confidence due to be released at 14:00 GMT. Last reading gave us a 97.3 number, but analysts are expecting a possible decrease at least to the 97.2 for August. During the last three data, CB showed a positive pattern, with only posting a decline from 94.7 to 92.6 in May.

Overall, in terms of technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart, following the Jackson Hole Symposium that strengthened to the US Dollar across the board, we're seeing a consolidation above the 50 and 200 SMA. The nearest support can be found at the 101.87 level, that should have a breakout to the downside in the negative scenario from CB Consumer Confidence, while a positive one should push the pair to test higher levels above the resistance zone of 102.33.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10244

EUR/USD is losing ground

8/30/2016

On the daily chart EUR/USD after reaching the targets of AB=CD pattern and leaving the bullish channel the euro reached support at 1.1175 (38.2% of the last descending wave). As a result, the pair formed a doji bar. If the pair falls below its minimum, risks of decline to 1.1072 will increase.

On H1 after the reversal of EUR/USD the combination of "Tree Indians" pattern and 1-2-3 made the pair reach 224% of AB=CD. The bears ran into support at 1.1169. Below this leve we'll see a decline to 1.1115 and lower. In line with the principle of the widening wedge, traders should sell the euro on attempts to rise to 1.1206 and 1.1233-1.1244.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10245

USD/jPY: bulls backed off

8/30/2016

On the daily chart the break of resistance at 100.83 made the pair go to the upper border of the previous consolidation range of 100.8-102.7. If the sellers manage to keep the pair below yesterday's high, pin bar after the 80-20 model will increase the risks of the bearish counterattack. On the contrary, if the pair renews yesterday's highs, the bulls will continue correction towards the upper border of the long-term descending channel.

On H1 USD/JPY emerged from the triangle and this let the bulls to reach 88.6% target of the Bat pattern. After that the pair formed descending triangle. Successful test of its lower border will increase risks of a pullback towards 101.3. On the other hand, if the pair rises above its upper border and then reaches ? 102.4 high, it will mean that the rally continues.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10246

EUR/USD: on the Clouds support

8/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1160, 1.1100; resistance – 1.1205, 1.1250.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1160; SL — 1.1140; TP1 — 1.1205; TP2 – 1.1250.

Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10247

GBP/USD: the Bulls have lost the positions above the Cloud

8/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3020, 1.2965; resistance – 1.3120.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.3080; SL — 1.3100; TP1 — 1.3020; TP2 — 1.2965.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; the prices are in the negative area.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10248

AUD/USD: at the crossroads

8/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7540/60; resistance – 0.7590, 0.7620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7620; TP2 — 0.7680.

Reason: Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Senkou Span B is going up; there is a strong support on the D1-timeframe.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10249

Key option levels for Tuesday, August 30th

8/30/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 216 532 ? + 70 035 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1216; 1.1243; 1.1265; 1.1293

Closest support levels 1.1153; 1.1130; 1.1102; 1.1068

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1216, with the target points at 1.1243 and 1.1265

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1153 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1130 and 1.1102

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 532 ? + 201 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3138; 1.3162; 1.3180; 1.3202

Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3035; 1.3011; 1.2983

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3055, with target points at 1.3035 and 1.3011

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3138 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3162 and 1.3180

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 720 ? + 611 ?

Closest resistance levels 102.39; 102.57; 102.83; 103.14

Closest support levels 101.78; 101.51(35?); 101.13; 100.87

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 102.39, with the target points at 102.57 and 102.83

Alternative scenario Moving below 101.78 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.51 and 101.13

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 289 ? + 488 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3058; 1.3089; 1.3135; 1.3196

Closest support levels 1.2982; 1.2955; 1.2917

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3058, with the target points at 1.3089 and 1.3135

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2982 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2955 and 1.2917

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10252

EUR/USD: new low coming soon

8/30/2016

The price faced a support at 1.1160, so we’ve got a local consolidation. Considering a bearish “Triple Top” pattern, the market is likely going to falling down in the short term. If we see a pullback from the next support at 1.1130, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

The pair is moving up and down between a support at 1.1152 and a resistance at 1.1176. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1130 shortly. At the same time, if a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10253

GBP/USD: "Double Top" highlights possible decline

8/30/2016

Bears faced a support at 1.3056, so we’ve got an upward correction in progress. Also, there’s a “Double Top”, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.3022. However, if a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be a chance to see a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.3119 – 1.3183.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the market is consolidating. At the same time, there’s a “Double Top”, so the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.3022 in the short term.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10254

AUD/USD reversed from strong resistance zone

8/30/2016

AUD/USD reversed from strong resistance zone

Next sell targets - 0.7500 and 0.7400

AUD/USD has been falling in the last two weeks inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the strong resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7700 and 0.7800 (which also earlier reversed the previous primary ABC correction ?, as can be seen below). The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star.

AUD/USD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7500 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 0.7400.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10255

EUR/GBP rising inside intermediate impulse wave

EUR/GBP rising inside intermediate impulse wave

Next buy target - 0.8600

EUR/GBP recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8500 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the middle of July. The upward reversal from this support area completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) - which is a part of the primary impulse wave ? from the end of May.

EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (5) and ? toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.8600. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.8500.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10256

EUR/USD: "Hammer" points to possible bullish correction

8/30/2016

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami” at the last local lows, but their confirmation is a quite weak. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line once again. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has achieved the 89 Moving Average, so bulls will probably try to deliver a pullback from this line.

The main trend is a still bullish, but we’ve got a “Hammer” at the local low. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, the nearest support could be tested again.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10260

USD/JPY: "Window" waiting for bears

8/30/2016

Bulls have got a support by the nearest “Window”, so there’s a “Morning Doji Star”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the “Window” once again, but if we see a pullback from it, then bulls will be free to deliver a new high. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Harami” at the local low, so there’s an opportunity to have an achievement of the nearest resistance line.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Harami” at the local high, but their confirmation isn’t enough. If we see a stronger confirmation later on, then bears will have a reason to get a support on the nearest “Window”.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10261