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  • US dollar: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4
    8/29/2016

    US dollar index made strong gains on Friday closing above July-August resistance line. US currency has potential to strengthen to 95.95 (May high) and 96.00. Support is in the 94.95 area.

    Data confirmed that US GDP growth has slowed down in Q2 from 2.6% to 1.1%. However, the market’s attention was focused not on this figures, but on comments from the Federal Reserve’s members. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen said in Jackson Hole that the case for an interest rate hike has strengthened in recent months as the labor market and economy have improved. As a result, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike rose from 21% to 33% for September and from 52% to 59% for December.

    Although Yellen gave no hints on the timing of any hike, but Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer claimed that Yellen's speech was consistent with expectations for possible interest rate increases this year. Fisher’s words became the main bullish driver for the greenback. Fisher also noted that August nonfarm payrolls report, due on Friday, September 2, will play a big role in the Fed’s decision. Other important events in the US economic calendar this week include CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report Chicago PMI and pending home sales on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

    All in all, the dynamics of the US dollar will be data-dependent. Members of the Federal Reserve are divided about a rate hike, to the market’s expectations of a rate hike may swing in either direction and have an impact on the currency.



    More:
    https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10243

    Comment


    • USD/JPY & CB Consumer Confidence: How long can be the correction in the US dollar?
      8/30/2016

      This week we'll have some major headlines in terms of macro data from the United States and today we'll start with the CB Consumer Confidence due to be released at 14:00 GMT. Last reading gave us a 97.3 number, but analysts are expecting a possible decrease at least to the 97.2 for August. During the last three data, CB showed a positive pattern, with only posting a decline from 94.7 to 92.6 in May.

      Overall, in terms of technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart, following the Jackson Hole Symposium that strengthened to the US Dollar across the board, we're seeing a consolidation above the 50 and 200 SMA. The nearest support can be found at the 101.87 level, that should have a breakout to the downside in the negative scenario from CB Consumer Confidence, while a positive one should push the pair to test higher levels above the resistance zone of 102.33.



      More:
      https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10244

      Comment


      • EUR/USD is losing ground
        8/30/2016

        On the daily chart EUR/USD after reaching the targets of AB=CD pattern and leaving the bullish channel the euro reached support at 1.1175 (38.2% of the last descending wave). As a result, the pair formed a doji bar. If the pair falls below its minimum, risks of decline to 1.1072 will increase.



        On H1 after the reversal of EUR/USD the combination of "Tree Indians" pattern and 1-2-3 made the pair reach 224% of AB=CD. The bears ran into support at 1.1169. Below this leve we'll see a decline to 1.1115 and lower. In line with the principle of the widening wedge, traders should sell the euro on attempts to rise to 1.1206 and 1.1233-1.1244.



        More:
        https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10245

        Comment


        • USD/jPY: bulls backed off
          8/30/2016

          On the daily chart the break of resistance at 100.83 made the pair go to the upper border of the previous consolidation range of 100.8-102.7. If the sellers manage to keep the pair below yesterday's high, pin bar after the 80-20 model will increase the risks of the bearish counterattack. On the contrary, if the pair renews yesterday's highs, the bulls will continue correction towards the upper border of the long-term descending channel.



          On H1 USD/JPY emerged from the triangle and this let the bulls to reach 88.6% target of the Bat pattern. After that the pair formed descending triangle. Successful test of its lower border will increase risks of a pullback towards 101.3. On the other hand, if the pair rises above its upper border and then reaches ? 102.4 high, it will mean that the rally continues.



          More:
          https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10246

          Comment


          • EUR/USD: on the Clouds support
            8/30/2016

            Technical levels: support – 1.1160, 1.1100; resistance – 1.1205, 1.1250.

            Trade recommendations:

            1. Buy — 1.1160; SL — 1.1140; TP1 — 1.1205; TP2 – 1.1250.

            Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a strong resistance of Senkou Span B.



            More:
            https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10247

            Comment


            • GBP/USD: the Bulls have lost the positions above the Cloud
              8/30/2016

              Technical levels: support – 1.3020, 1.2965; resistance – 1.3120.

              Trade recommendations:

              1. Sell — 1.3080; SL — 1.3100; TP1 — 1.3020; TP2 — 1.2965.

              Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; the prices are in the negative area.



              More:
              https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10248

              Comment


              • AUD/USD: at the crossroads
                8/30/2016

                Technical levels: support – 0.7540/60; resistance – 0.7590, 0.7620.

                Trade recommendations:

                1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7620; TP2 — 0.7680.

                Reason: Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Senkou Span B is going up; there is a strong support on the D1-timeframe.



                More:
                https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10249

                Comment


                • Key option levels for Tuesday, August 30th
                  8/30/2016

                  EUR/USD




                  Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
                  Bullish Bearish
                  Changes in the open interest + 216 532 ? + 70 035 ?
                  Closest resistance levels 1.1216; 1.1243; 1.1265; 1.1293
                  Closest support levels 1.1153; 1.1130; 1.1102; 1.1068
                  Trading recommendations
                  Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1216, with the target points at 1.1243 and 1.1265
                  Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1153 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1130 and 1.1102


                  GBP/USD




                  Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
                  Neutral Bearish
                  Changes in the open interest + 532 ? + 201 ?
                  Closest resistance levels 1.3138; 1.3162; 1.3180; 1.3202
                  Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3035; 1.3011; 1.2983
                  Trading recommendations
                  Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3055, with target points at 1.3035 and 1.3011
                  Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3138 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3162 and 1.3180


                  USD/JPY




                  Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
                  Bullish Neutral
                  Changes in the open interest + 720 ? + 611 ?
                  Closest resistance levels 102.39; 102.57; 102.83; 103.14
                  Closest support levels 101.78; 101.51(35?); 101.13; 100.87
                  Trading recommendations
                  Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 102.39, with the target points at 102.57 and 102.83
                  Alternative scenario Moving below 101.78 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.51 and 101.13


                  USD/CAD




                  Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
                  Neutral Bullish
                  Changes in the open interest + 289 ? + 488 ?
                  Closest resistance levels 1.3058; 1.3089; 1.3135; 1.3196
                  Closest support levels 1.2982; 1.2955; 1.2917
                  Trading recommendations
                  Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3058, with the target points at 1.3089 and 1.3135
                  Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2982 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2955 and 1.2917

                  More:
                  https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10252

                  Comment


                  • EUR/USD: new low coming soon
                    8/30/2016



                    The price faced a support at 1.1160, so we’ve got a local consolidation. Considering a bearish “Triple Top” pattern, the market is likely going to falling down in the short term. If we see a pullback from the next support at 1.1130, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.



                    The pair is moving up and down between a support at 1.1152 and a resistance at 1.1176. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1130 shortly. At the same time, if a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high.

                    More:
                    https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10253

                    Comment


                    • GBP/USD: "Double Top" highlights possible decline
                      8/30/2016



                      Bears faced a support at 1.3056, so we’ve got an upward correction in progress. Also, there’s a “Double Top”, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.3022. However, if a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be a chance to see a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.3119 – 1.3183.



                      We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the market is consolidating. At the same time, there’s a “Double Top”, so the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.3022 in the short term.

                      More:

                      https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10254

                      Comment


                      • AUD/USD reversed from strong resistance zone
                        8/30/2016

                        AUD/USD reversed from strong resistance zone
                        Next sell targets - 0.7500 and 0.7400
                        AUD/USD has been falling in the last two weeks inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the strong resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7700 and 0.7800 (which also earlier reversed the previous primary ABC correction ?, as can be seen below). The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star.

                        AUD/USD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7500 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 0.7400.



                        More:
                        https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10255

                        Comment


                        • EUR/GBP rising inside intermediate impulse wave

                          EUR/GBP rising inside intermediate impulse wave
                          Next buy target - 0.8600
                          EUR/GBP recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8500 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the middle of July. The upward reversal from this support area completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) - which is a part of the primary impulse wave ? from the end of May.

                          EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (5) and ? toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.8600. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.8500.



                          More:
                          https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10256

                          Comment


                          • EUR/USD: "Hammer" points to possible bullish correction
                            8/30/2016



                            We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami” at the last local lows, but their confirmation is a quite weak. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line once again. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has achieved the 89 Moving Average, so bulls will probably try to deliver a pullback from this line.



                            The main trend is a still bullish, but we’ve got a “Hammer” at the local low. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, the nearest support could be tested again.

                            More:
                            https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10260

                            Comment


                            • USD/JPY: "Window" waiting for bears
                              8/30/2016



                              Bulls have got a support by the nearest “Window”, so there’s a “Morning Doji Star”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the “Window” once again, but if we see a pullback from it, then bulls will be free to deliver a new high. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Harami” at the local low, so there’s an opportunity to have an achievement of the nearest resistance line.



                              We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Harami” at the local high, but their confirmation isn’t enough. If we see a stronger confirmation later on, then bears will have a reason to get a support on the nearest “Window”.

                              More:
                              https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10261

                              Comment

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