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  1. #2441
    Diamond Member Array riki143's Avatar
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    GBP/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls
    8/17/2016



    We’ve got a new high, but bulls have been stopped by the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current local correction. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.3015 – 1.2954. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance at 1.3119 – 1.3173.



    The price faced a resistance at 1.3101, so we’ve got a consolidation on the one-hour chart. There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement into an upward direction.

    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10097]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10097[/URL]

  2. #2442
    Diamond Member Array riki143's Avatar
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    Key option levels for Wednesday, August 17
    8/17/2016

    EUR/USD



    Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
    Bullish Bearish
    Changes in the open interest + 96 725 ? + 64 216 ?
    Closest resistance levels 1.1309; 1.1328; 1.1343; 1.1361
    Closest support levels 1.1244; 1.1227; 1.1205; 1.1179
    Trading recommendations
    Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1309, with the target points at 1.1328 and 1.1343
    Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1244 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1227 and 1.1205

    GBP/USD



    Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
    Bullish Bearish
    Changes in the open interest + 2 150 ? + 1 104 ?
    Closest resistance levels 1.3110; 1.3147; 1.3171; 1.3197
    Closest support levels 1.2995(82?); 1.2965; 1.2946; 1.2922
    Trading recommendations
    Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3110, with the target points at 1.3147 and 1.3171
    Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2982 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2965 and 1.2946

    USD/JPY



    Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
    Neutral Neutral
    Changes in the open interest + 1 942 ? + 1 284 ?
    Closest resistance levels 101.28; 101.51; 101.79; 102.11
    Closest support levels 100.09; 99.86(74?); 99.59; 99.39
    Trading recommendations
    Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.09, with target points at 99.86 and 99.59
    Alternative scenario Moving above 101.28 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.51 and 101.79

    USD/CAD




    Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
    Neutral Bullish
    Changes in the open interest + 1 143 ? - 130 ?
    Closest resistance levels 1.2905; 1.2940; 1.2987; 1.3043
    Closest support levels 1.2819/06; 1.2786; 1.2760; 1.2723
    Trading recommendations
    Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2819, with target points at 1.2786 and 1.2760
    Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2905 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.2940 and 1.2987

    EUR JPY GBP CAD

    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10098]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10098[/URL]

  3. #2443
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    EUR/USD: wave v of (c) is about to begin
    8/17/2016



    There’s a possible impulse in wave (c) of [y], which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Wave iv is likely going to end shortly, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement in wave v of (c). The main target is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300).



    As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave iv is developing a zigzag. Therefore, wave [C] of iv is likely going to reach 8/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to set up wave v of (c).

    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10099]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10099[/URL]

  4. #2444
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    SEB: how to trade EUR/USD on FOMC minutes
    8/17/2016

    Analysts at SEB propose an interesting trade strategy on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). If EUR/USD rises in the next 3 hours after the release, then the specialists will buy the pair and close it in 24 hours. On the contrary, if EUR/USD declines in 3 hours after the release, sell the pair and hold position for 24 hours.

    According to SEB, EUR/USD tends to continue moving in the same direction on the day after the release of the minutes.



    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10104]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10104[/URL]

  5. #2445
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    EUR/USD: "Window" going to be tested again
    8/17/2016



    There’s a strong resistance by the “Window”, which led to form a “Shooting Star” and a “Tower” patterns, but their confirmation isn’t enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “Harami”, but today’s candle hasn’t finished yet. So, the closest “Window” is likely going to be tested again, which could bring more bearish patterns soon.



    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10105]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10105[/URL]

  6. #2446
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    USD/JPY: "High Wave" brought bullish correction
    8/17/2016



    There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. Also, we’ve got a small “Doji”, so the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again. If we get more bearish patterns on this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, but if a “Harami” finishes at the end of the day, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction.



    We’ve got a “High Wave” at the local low, which led to an achievement of the 55 Moving Average, so there’re a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami” on this line. However, a confirmation of these patterns is a quite weak, so after a small correction bulls are likely try to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average.

    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10106]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10106[/URL]

  7. #2447
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    Forex trading plan: into the FOMC minutes release
    8/17/2016

    Forex traders are waiting for this week’s highpoint – release of the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) meeting minutes. There was no press conference after July meeting, so the market players want more information from the central bank. The recent comments from the Fed members were hawkish: Lockhart expects at least 1 rate hike in 2016 and is sure that US economic growth will accelerate; Dudley says rate hike in September is possible as US economy will be stronger in the second half of the year; Williams thinks that the Fed should raise rates this year. It seems that the Fed wants the market to price in higher possibility of rate hikes. In July statement the regulator pointed out that risks to America’s economic outlook have diminished. All in all, the risk is that the statement will be more hawkish. So far traders didn’t believe the hawkish mood of the Fed speakers, the question is will they be swayed by the hawkish Fed minutes? Technical picture shows that the market’s is building ground for new sells of American currency.

    Trading plan for the next day will largely depends on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. Analysts at SEB Bank have a strategy how to trade EUR/USD after the FOMC release. I can add that at the moment of writing EUR/USD is consolidating above support at 1.1260 and 1.1235. Technically the recent move to the upside looks unfinished. Targets are at 1.1376 (February high) and 1.1405 (Fibo extension target). At the same time, hawkish minutes can send the pair to July-August support line around 1.1150.

    GBP/USD retraced about 38% of Tuesday’s gains. Tuesday’s close above 1.3000 was good and there’s technical potential for recovery to 1.3100. Yet decline below 1.2990 on hawkish Fed will bring the pound to 1.2940, where the currency should find support. Further support will be at 1.2900 and 1.2850. Data from the UK released this week was positive. On Thursday the UK will publish retail sales data (08:30 GMT) and the forecast is positive.

    USD/JPY closed on Tuesday below the key level of 100.70 (50% Fibo of the 2011-2015 advance) – bearish sign. According to the weekly pivot points, the pair’s at the bearish territory. Resistance is at 101.15 (daily high, previous support line. Close below this level will mean continuation of the downtrend and will likely lead to another attempt of the bears to test levels below 100.00. If hawkish Fed hits the wires, we’ll see a recovery to 101.50 and probably to 102.30/80.

    The bulls failed to push AUD/USD above 0.7755 for the third time. A selloff to 0.7615 followed. This is the former 2016 resistance line, which now acts as support. Watch where the pair closes on Wednesday – it will provide you with key hints on the pair’s future dynamics. Break below 0.7600 on hawkish Fed will open the way down to 0.7630 (lower border of uptrend channel, 38.2% Fibo). If the pair manages to stay above this important level. We’ll see consolidation in the 0.7600/0.7700 area in the coming days. Note that Australia will release labor market data early during the Asian session on Thursday.

    EUR JPY AUD GBP

    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10107]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10107[/URL]

  8. #2448
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    GBP/USD ahead of UK Retail Sales: Will the Pound remain under bearish pressure?
    8/18/2016

    Today at 08:30 GMT will be released a key indicator for the UK economy, as the retail sales will be the market mover during early European session. During June, the indicator posted a worst-than-expected decline to -0.9%, but for July's outcome, analysts are expecting a rise to 0.2% on it's monthly reading. Regarding the yearly basis' data, retails sales could post a very slight decline to 4.2%, according to the market consensus.

    GBP traders will be paying attention to this data, as the recent downside pressure on Sterling should make it to fall towards post-Brexit and multi-year low, at the 1.2794 level. The GBP/USD pair is consolidated below the 200 SMA at H4 chart and that moving average is acting as dynamic resistance. If the pair manages to break it to the upside, then we should see a rally to the 1.3438 level, at least in the mid-term. However, our key support to the downside remains located at 1.2794 level.



    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10108]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10108[/URL]

  9. #2449
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    GBP/USD: pound bared its teeth
    8/18/2016

    On the daily GBP/USD chart the inability of the bears to break below the convergence area at 1.289-1.295 and reach 78.6% target of Gartley pattern led to correction. The bulls returned the pair to the lower border of the previous consolidation range. Successful test of resistance at 1.3075 will help the pound strengthen towards the upper border of the triangle.



    On H1 GBP/USD broke above resistance at 1.3071-1.3075 will set off the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is near 1.332. On the contrary, if the bullish attack bulls fails, bears will have an opportunity to pulls the pair down to the target of green shark at 1.288. The first step will be successful test of support at 1.299.



    More:
    [URLhttps://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10109]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10109[/URL]

  10. #2450
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    XAU/USD: ran into a triangle
    8/18/2016

    On the daily XAU/USD chart there's an uptrend channel, within which the pair formed "Spike and ledge" pattern on the pasis of 1-2-3. Successful test of the upper border of the ledge ($1365) will allow the bulls to continue rally at least to $1410 an ounce (200% according to AB=CD). On the contrary, a break of support at $1313 will strengthen the risks of corrective move towards the lower border of the trend channel ($1280).



    On H1 decline in volatility led to formation of a triangle. If the pair leaves the triangle, it may lead to serious growth or decline in the pair. Resistance levels are at $1354, $1362 and $1366 an ounce. Look for support near $1345, $1339 and $1332.



    More:
    [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10110]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10110[/URL]

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