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  1. #11
    Bronze Member Array Elizabeth FBS's Avatar
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    ANZ: EUR/USD will continue uptrend

    Analysts at ANZ point out that EUR gained 6% versus its main counterparts this year. This happened despite the fact that the ECB lowered interest rates to the record low, the euro zone’s economic recovery isn’t very convincing and the region’s unemployment remains extremely high.

    ANZ concludes that the EUR depends not on comparative growth dynamics, but on a large current account surplus, improving fiscal position and the union’s progress in resolving the crisis and deepening economic integration. According to the specialists, this situation is unlikely to change in 2014. In their view, the uptrend will remain in place, especially against AUD and NZD. ANZ expects EUR/USD to trade in the $1.40/45 range.

  • #12
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    Dec. 30: Asian session

    USD/JPY edged up to 105.40. Asian stocks strengthened, curbing demand for haven assets. MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares advanced 0.2%.Yen declined on a mix of improving sentiment on the global economy, rising investor risk appetite and expectations of more Bank of Japan stimulus.

    EUR/USD declined to $1.3730 after spiking to $1.3890 on Friday. Euro rose by the end of the year as the European banks tended to repatriate funds ahead of an asset review by the ECB. Mario Draghi said that he saw no urgent need to cut the euro zone’s main interest rate further and no signs of deflation. GBP/USD declined to $1.6474 after spiking to $1.6578 yesterday.

    Commodity currencies are all trading under pressure, but have reversed the early-session drop. AUD/USD found support at $0.8835, holding a bit above the key $0.8820 support (Dec. 10 low). NZD/USD bounced from the $0.8115 low.

  • #13
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    BoA: EUR/USD will make a top

    Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have noticed that since 2008 EUR/USD was reversing down near the long-term resistance after completing a 3-legged advance from the previous cyclical low. This time such low is at $1.2041 (July 2012 low).

    So, the specialists are looking for a top and turn down. Targets lie at $1.2745 (March 2013 low) and $1.2173.


    Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

  • #14
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    Analysts on USD/JPY 2014 prospects

    We’ve seen an impressive rally in USD/JPY in the year 2013 – the pair rose by more than 3000 pips, recovering 61.8% Fibonacci from the 2007/2011 decline. The gradual widening of the yield spread between the US and Japan should support the pair further, as the Fed’s monetary policy will become less dovish with time, while the BOJ is expected to ease further. Our next bullish targets lie at 107.35 (200-month MA) and 108.80.

    JP Morgan strategists warn about a strong bearish correction in the year 2014. “JPY has high risk of mean reversion over the next year because positioning is so stretched (shorts more than 3-sigmas from average). This extreme positioning is why we have flagged USD/JPY as vulnerable to a correction in Q2 (target 100) if the economy fails to reaccelerate quickly from a contraction induced by the consumption tax hike”. However, by the year-end analysts expect the pair to recover to 106.00.

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank are much more optimistic on the USD prospects: “We are only about half way through a move that will eventually push up to and probably through 120.00 yen”. DB puts its 2014 USD/JPY forecasts at 106 in Q1, 109 in Q2, 112 in Q3 and 115 in Q4.


    Chart. Monthly USD/JPY

  • #15
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    Jan. 9: Asian session

    US dollar remains strong versus its main counterparts as the signs of improvement in the labor market (ADP said US private employers added a bigger-than-expected 238K jobs in December, the strongest increase in 13 months) support expectations the American economy will be strong enough for the Fed to end bond purchases this year. USD/JPY is trading in the 104.80 area after reaching 105.12 yesterday.

    Asian shares wavered on Thursday after a lackluster performance on Wall Street overnight. MSCIís broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.2% after snapping a five-day losing streak on Wednesday. Despite the yen's weakness, Japanís Nikkei benchmark shed 1.4%, giving up some of its 1.9% bounce in the previous session.

    Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading under pressure for a third consecutive day. AUD/USD dipped to $0.8865 before bouncing to $0.8880. AUD weakened in the Asian trade despite the strong retail sales figures (+0.7% m/m vs. forecasted +0.5%). Australia has also released pretty neutral building approvals data (-1.5% m/m). NZD/USD hit a daily low of $0.8240. New Zealand building consents rose above the forecast by 1.1%. China inflation figures came a little bit below the forecast with CPI rising by 2.5% y/y and PPI falling by 1.4%.

    EUR/USD edged up to $1.3586, while GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6450 area.

  • #16
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    Soros: China is the biggest risk

    George Soros remains pessimistic about the prospects of the Chinese economy. In his view, the growth model that caused its rapid rise has run out of steam. Soros believes China is the main destabilizing factor threatening the global economic recovery, and not other bleak assessments on the euro, the US political stalemate or a Japanese bubble.

    Soros sees a worrisome disconnect between China's pledges to move away from excessive investment and overborrowing and toward a services-based economy without sacrificing rapid growth. “There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years," Soros wrote.

  • #17
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    Jan. 10: Asian session

    Asian shares were little changed on mixed Chinese trade data. Trade surplus contracted, but the jump at imports points to stronger domestic demand and may mean that the nationís rebalancing away from a reliance on exports to fuel growth. MSCIís broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up by 0.1%. Shanghai stocks trimmed early losses to be almost flat. Japanís Nikkei also pared losses to be down 0.4%, while the Hong Kong market added 0.5%.

    USD/JPY is trading just under 105.00. AUD/USD is trying to recover after having dipped to $0.8880 on China trade balance figures. NZD/USD remains under a slight bearish pressure for a fourth day in a row. Kiwi remains supported by the 55-day MA at $0.8246 as of writing. Australian and New Zealand dollars may be influenced by the US nonfarm payrolls data today.

    EUR/USD found support at $1.3550 yesterday and rose to $1.3616 today. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6480 area.

  • #18
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    EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Jan. 10)

    Daily. The pair started the year with a decline. The strengthening of the US dollar contributed to the fall of the currency pair to the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. Senkou Span B supported euro at $1.3560 – the pair was consolidating above this point last week. Short-term outlook turned bearish as Tenkan and Kijun formed a “dead cross” (C). However, pay attention to the fact that the Kijun-Sen (KS) went up immediately after the intersection. This may mean a recovery in the near term. Also note that the Ichimoku Cloud is still positive.


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

    H4. The trend turned bearish at H4. The prices fell and Tenkan-sen and Kijun formed a “dead cross” (C), which is still relevant after almost two weeks. Ichimoku Cloud turned bearish. This indicates that the bears are gaining power. Nevertheless, the support at $1.3560 doesn’t give them the opportunity to continue the decline. During the last day the pair returned to the Tenkan and Kijun lines. If the prices fix above Kijun, they may rise to the lower boundary of the Cloud.


    Chart. H4 EUR/USD

  • #19
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    GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Jan. 10)

    Daily. During the past week GBP/USD managed to regain a bit the lost ground. Kijun-sen (KS) acted as support, which stopped the corrective decline at $1.6400. Note that a local minimum was formed a lower, in the $1.6340 area. Thus, the upward trend remains in both the short- and long-term prospects. A “golden cross” (C) is still in place. The Ichimoku cloud is bullish. If the prices fix above Tenkan, the bulls will continue purchases.


    Chart. Daily GBP/USD

    H4. At H4 the picture is not that smooth. After the pair recovered to the upper boundary of the Cloud, it found resistance at $1.6500. It may be difficult for the prices to break higher as Chinkou Span is in the overbought area. So, in the short term we can expect the depreciation to Tenkan after another attempt to get above $1.6500.


    Chart. H4 GBP/USD

  • #20
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    Jan. 13: Asian session

    Asian shares rose. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 0.5%, Shanghai Composite moved up 0.4%. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.

    USD/JPY fell almost to 1-month minimum in the 103.30 area as dollar bulls were disappointed by weak US NFP data released on Friday. Traders started reassessing how quickly the Federal Reserve can scale back stimulus.

    AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9045, extending the upside after the Fridayís post-NFP jump. Aussieís strength extends the chances for a base formation with a low at $0.8820. Australia ANZ job advertisements contracted a little bit below the forecast (-0.7% vs. -0.9% expected), while home loans came in line with forecast (+1.1% m/m). NZD/USD has also strengthened, testing the $0.8330 resistance.

    EUR/USD is at $1.3677. GBP/USD is just below $1.6500.

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