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  1. #1
    Bronze Member Array Elizabeth FBS's Avatar
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    Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

    Hello, here is this thread we are going to publish market news and trade recommendations by the leading FX provider - FBS!

    Follow the updates and ask questions. We are here for you!

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    Dec. 24: Asian session

    Asian stocks rose boosted by the gains in the American session as the upbeat US spending data showed that US economic recovery gaining momentum. In addition, China’s central bank moved to ease a cash crunch by making its first market-wide money injection in three weeks.

    Japan’s Nikkei went up by about 0.8% to 6-year high above 16,000 after Tokyo markets opened after a holiday. USD/JPY rose to 104.41.

    AUD/USD declined to $0.8907 after peaking to $0.8960 yesterday. NZD/USD edged down to $0.8176. Gold dipped below the $1,200 level yesterday and is heading for its biggest annual loss in three decades.

    EUR/USD slid to $1.3675 after it tested $1.3716 on Monday. GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.6345.

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    EUR/USD: how do the banks trade?

    There’s a choice among various shorts.

    BoA/Merrill: Short at $1.3764 with stop at $1.3834 and take profit at $1.3479

    Credit Agricole: Short at $1.3780 with stop at $1.4160 and take profit at $1.3300

    Credit Suisse: Short at $1.3800 with stop at $1.3860 and take profit at $1.3415

    Commerzbank: Short at $1.3750 with stop at $1.3815 and take profit at $1.3405

    Commerzbank: Short at $1.3665 with stop at $1.3815

    Morgan Stanley: Short at $1.3600 with stop at $1.3750 and take profit at $1.2700

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    Nomura: trajectory for USD/JPY

    Analysts at Nomura have outlines a scenario for USD/JPY using Elliott waves. The specialists expect the pair to trade sideways in the 102.50/104.50 during the next month in the wave (4) and then rally to 106.00 in the wave (5).


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    Credit Agricole: Q1 GBP forecasts

    GBP/USD

    GBP/USD to weaken to $1.6200 in the stronger USD environment. Britain's officials will try to talk the pound down in Q1 2014.



    Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

    EUR/GBP

    As for EUR/GBP, the pair is expected to fall towards 0.8200 by end-March. Pound will gain some ground vs. the euro on a wave of EUR sales.


    Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP

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    Dec. 27: Asian session

    Most Asian stocks went up after big gains at Wall Street where Dow Jones made a record high close. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.25%. Chinese shares rose as money rates eased and China set its yuan at an historic high.

    USD/JPY tested briefly levels 105.00 today and EUR/JPY – 144.00. Yen hit 5-year lows versus the greenback and euro. Japanese data showed that the nation’s manufacturing activity is expanding at the fastest clip in more than 7 years, while Japanese firms added workers at the quickest pace in over 6 years. Japan’s core consumer price inflation in November rose to a 5-year high. This means that the country’s making progress in its fight against deflation.

    Australian and New Zealand dollars have both strengthened in the late Asian session. AUD/USD has recovered above the $0.8900 mark. However, the Monday bearish gap still remains open. NZD/USD rose to $0.8170. The pair is supported by the 200-day moving average.

    EUR/USD rose to $1.3745. GBP/USD went up to $1.6447.

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    EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

    Daily. In the week ahead the New Year the US dollar is losing ground versus almost all major world currencies. EUR/USD recovered to 1.3740 by the end of the week. Bullish sentiment strengthened: prices have gone through resistance of the Tenkan-sen, and will soon be fixing above it. The Ichimoku Cloud also points to the strengthening of the bulls, but in the longer term.


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

    H4. Here EUR/USD is leaving the Cloud. The pair’s supported by the short-term Golden Cross (C). The Cloud itself looks positive. It started widening up due to the growth of Tenkan-sen. The position of the bulls is strengthening. Note though that there’s a serious resistance at $1.3755. In addition Chinkou Span shows that the market is overbought. So, when the market reaches the level mentioned above, the market can either begin consolidation or make a corrective decline to the lower edge of the Cloud.


    Chart. H4 EUR/USD

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    GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

    Daily. During the past week the pair has settled above Tenkan-sen (TS). This allowed the bulls to resume rebound. However, growth is only in the short term. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal, so there’s no dominating trend. At the same time, the pair’s once again approaching the yearly highs as it’s trading in the $1.64460 area. In the coming days the bulls may attempt to break the December range to the upside. This will open the way towards $1.6600.



    Chart. Daily GBP/USD

    H4. At H4 the pair was consolidating just below the lines Tenkan and Kijun which have formed the Dead Cross. However, in the second half of the weeks the buyers re-appeared and resumed rebound. The pair formed a Golden Cross (С), and both lines are rising now. Senkou Span A and B are going up as well. Bullish sentiment is strengthening, so the odds that the uptrend will continue are high.



    Chart. H4 GBP/USD

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    USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

    Daily. During the past week the currency pair has been trading inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. The prices were mostly drifting to the lower border of this range. All lines of the Indicator remain horizontal, so the sideways move may continue. Note that the odds that the downtrend will resume are high as the Cloud remains bearish and the Dead Cross (С) is still in place.



    Chart. Daily USD/CHF

    H4. Here the trend is sideways as well. Here the pair has also been trading inside Tenkan-Kijun channel which itself is inside the Ichimoku Cloud. However, on Friday the sellers livened up and the pair fell to the lower border of the Cloud. As Chinkou Span went below the price chart, we expect downtrend to develop in the near term.



    Chart. H4 USD/CHF

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    USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

    Daily. USD/JPY is setting new highs. The pair has reached 105.00. So, the bullish rally continues supported by all lines of the Indicator at the daily timeframe. The Golden Cross (С) and the bullish Cloud confirm the positive sentiment. But after the prices test resistance at 105.20, the pair may start corrective decline to Tenkan-sen.



    Chart. Daily USD/JPY

    H4. At H4 there are yet no problems for further rebounding. All lines of the Indicator are rising as well. The Cloud is bullish. Tenkan and Kijun have once again formed the Golden Cross (С). If the pair managed to hold above support at 104.65 in the coming days, the pair will start the year by testing 105.20 and maybe even 106.00.



    Chart. H4 USD/JPY

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