Market reviews by FreshForex

Forecast of AUD/USD

Monthly chart: so, a strong rolling swing upwards is completed, its pike is bearish pinbar. It is a very strong Southern determination and, besides, it is correct in technical point of view. Therefore, a major middle-term expectation is start of decline down to 0.84 (the bottom Bollinger band). The point where such expectations may break is the breakthrough above the middle Bollinger band (0.9625).

Weekly chart: here we see development of reversal following to bullish convergence. Key resistance point is 0.9625. Here growth scenario is the main point (marked by blue arrow), but the situation on the monthly chart tells us that start of a new downward wave (red arrow) is equally probable. The middle Bollinger band (0.9059) performs as the key supportive point.

Day chart: a strong pinbar from the supportive bottom Bollinger band (0.9208) is seen here, which is a very good sign for purchases. Another option is the break under the bottom, break of pinbar and decline.

Conclusion: main scenario is growth from 0.9208 to the area 0.9625 Another option is getting under 0.92 and decline to 0.8650.

The EUR/USD may return to the growth

Euro

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The euro was steady against the dollar on Friday as disappointing data on consumer sentiment in the U.S. boosted demand for the dollar, while the concern about the violence in Iraq continues to exert pressure.

The euro gained some support after the data release which showed that industrial production in the region increased by 0.8% in April, exceeding the forecasted increase 0.4%. The March figure was revised down to 0.4% with 0.3% of previously reported.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target 1.3435. After overcoming this target it will be relevant to sell to the mark 1.3367.

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We expect a long EUR/USD decrease

Euro

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The euro fell against the U.S. dollar, trading around week low levels after the disappointing report on the German industrial orders, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi comments continue to exert pressure.

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated the bank forecasts that rates would remain at current or lower levels in the long term. He highlighted that "the governing council also unanimous in their commitment to the non-traditional instruments use if necessary, to fight the too long low inflation period risk."

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider the short positions with the first target - 1.3535. When the price consolidates below the first target it will go to the level of 1.3480.

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S&P500, oil and platinum. Weekly review

S&P500

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Monthly chart: bulls continue to put a pressure, but in general uptrend looks like almost fully exhausted. Key resistance is based on 2050,7, from where reversal or a significant correction will take place with a high probability.

Weekly chart: oscillator's divergence confirms that reversal is close to come. Nevertheless, we are waiting for new highs to be reached before.

Day chart: divergence is also strong here, besides, resistance from the upper Bollinger band (1991.4) is still working. Support is based at 1956.6 ( bottom Bollinger band).

Conclusion: main scenario is descend from current levels to 1956.6 and a further growth to1991.4. Another option is the direct growth to 2050.7

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