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  • #16
    Weekly review of three pairs
    EUR/USD

    Monthly chart: the pair had pushed off upper Bollinger band (1.3914) and is apparently moving in the area of medium (1.3105). Nevertheless, we will make a note of an ascending configuration of an upper band, therefore, there is a probability of buyers' attack by breaking of resistance 1.3914 and of a further growth above 41.

    Weekly chart: growth had slowed down within the the frames of upper envelope, ADX had turned, so, possible reconfiguration within the range 1.3576-1.3907 is possible.

    Day chart: horizontal corridor described by Bollinger bands as ADX is inactive is also an argument for a flat game inside envelopes (blue arrow is the support 1.35, 1.3824 is the resistance).

    Conclusion: main scenario is a flat movement 1.35-1.3824. Alternatively, there can be a well-formed bullish flat corridor with support at 1.3576 and resistance at 1.3907.

    Comment


    • #17
      Weekly review of three pairs
      EUR/USD


      Monthly chart: here is an active rolldown while ADX is calm. It increases strength of a possible support for 1.3106 (Bollinger's medium band) and the probability of bullish scenario.
      Weekly chart: test level is 1.3267 (bottom band). If buyers do not take active steps from there (and will get the price below specified price), their mid-range strategies will lose.
      Day chart: bearish wave is developing here. Bounce from 1.3267 is a more important task for bulls than enhancement of descending front down to 1.3105.
      Conclusion: main plan is to touch 1.3267 and start of euro growth in the direction of 1.3850.

      Another option is to break support 1.3267 and even a deeper descend to 1.3105.

      Learn more at freshforex.com

      Comment


      • #18
        Time is ripe to sell EUR/USD
        Review of the past week


        Since the last week was the first week of the month, it was traditionally eventful. According to its results, EUR/USD pair consolidated for 1.1% as ECB governor was positive in his comments and labor market report in the USA was weak. Mario Drahgi continues to surprise market with his optimism. On Thursday 6, while speaking in the ECB meeting, he stated that deflation does not threat Europe now and there is no sense to apply measures to cope with it now. Investors were encouraged by this statement and EUR/USD went above 36.


        On the last trading day of the week, release on the US labor market was published. January growth of Non-Farm payrolls was 113 000, which is rather below the figure of consensus-forecast. For the second month in a row, US employers are at an easy pace when it comes to hiring. This is an alarm bell for the US economy and served a background for growth of the European currency. Week's trades were closed at the point of 1.3634. In the fight of bulls and bears on GBP/USD pair there is no winner. Over the past week, Markit Economics research center had been releasing PMI for manufacture and construction as well as for the service sector. Amongst all, only construction report was a good surprise for investors wherease two other were below expectations. This negative background encouraged bears who forced quotations down to 1.6251.


        Bulls also paid back in their own coin and got out the most of the weak US Non-Farm payrolls report by raising quotations above 64. Nevertheless, in the end of the week GBP/USD lost its symbolical 0.1% and finished at 1.6407.


        Japanese Yen followed its upsurge in January and early February by retreat. Only the first trading day of the week was marked by its consolidation against its US rival as sales on leading global stock exchanges was going on. On Wednesday 5, the report on change in salary for December was published. The figure was above consensus-forecast which supported demand in Japanese currency in the first half of a day. Salary growth will provoke increase of expenses in the future and thus enhancement of inflation. On this background, USD/JPY dropped down to 100.77, but bears were not strong enough to get more. Then bulls joined the game who were not discouraged by weak report on the US Non-Farm payrolls in January. Having added 0.3% for the weak, trades were closed at the point of 102.35.


        Forecast for the week February 10 – 14

        Comment


        • #19
          Weekly review of three major pairs
          EUR/USD


          Monthly chart: the pair is on the way to Bollinger's upper band (1.3931) and bulls do not have any potential for a further break, because ADX did not exceed "30".

          Thus, a main strategic scenario is a bounce down from 1.3931 and movement to the area of Bollinger's medium band (1.3139).
          Weekly chart: a long consolidation inside of the ascending triangle is coming to an end. In all likelihood, this accumulation will be continued this week as well, because ADX did not turn its full potential on. Support is on the middle (1.3605), resistance is on the upper band (1.38).
          Conclusion: a main scenario is the flat within 1.36-1.38. Another option is the break above 1.38, movement to 1.3931 and a bounce down in the direction of 1.36.

          Learn more

          Comment


          • #20
            it seems EURUSD is going to have further corrections in this week.....

            Comment


            • #21
              The dollar falls in the light of rising oil prices
              The weather can distract players from Ukraine and China. The weather peak is expected on Tuesday, when the first of the four central banks is planning to organize the meeting - the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce changes in its monetary policy. The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. Carl Weinberg, the chief international economist of High Frequency Economics in New York, suspects that all four central banks are "largely paralyzed and will not change its monetary policy."


              The ECB as the Central Bank " may surprise us as the ECB is in uncharted waters now. While "no one can predict how ECB will react ", HFE expects that the bank's policy is likely to remain unchanged.


              We expect a number of important news from the USA this week. The market's attention will be riveted on Monday to ISM manufacturing index for February release, the ISM index for the services sector and the February employment report publication on Friday.


              The euro closed Friday at the 1.3807 that is at the upper range of the last week from the 1.3643 (Thursday) to the 1.3824 (Friday). The pair shot upwards after Friday’s preliminary data on inflation in the euro-zone, which raised questions about the prospect of the ECB monetary policy easing this week.

              Comment


              • #22
                The market holds its positions
                Euro

                The Eurozone will publish the final consumer price index data for February. There are no prerequisites for the revision indicator upward, therefore, the release of data on the level of consensus- forecast is expected. Everyone expects full-scale geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine which can put pressure on a risky assets.
                The support levels: 1.3910-1.3860, and the resistance levels: 1.3914-1.3980.
                MACD is turned up, indicating on the current uptrend, if the indicator is developed downward, it can start a downward movement turn.
                Trading Recommendations
                Generally, the situation remains positive. Nevertheless, fundamentally, it is difficult to find a good reason for buying the single currency. That’s why it’s not the fact that the pair will move above 1.3937-1.3966.
                The loss of the support in the 1.3845-1.3833 will lead to a fall down to 1.3740.
                Read more

                Comment


                • #23
                  Will Federal Reserve cut the Q3 again?
                  Euro


                  As we remember last trading week Draghi said that if the inflation in the EU stays for a long period the European regulator may start the program of quantitative softening.


                  The ECB left interest rates at the lowest level of 0.25 % and it does not plan to raise it in the near future. At the same time we highlight the employment data in the U.S., which showed an increase of 192 thousand in March. Taking into the consideration this data for the previous months we conclude that the decrease in the number of unemployed rate in the beginning of this year was only temporary.
                  If the pair goes down its primary goal will be the mark 1.3560. The level 1.3640 breakthrough is the single condition for this step.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Weekly review of three pairs
                    EUR/USD



                    Monthly chart: An ill-defined reaction of April to March pin makes us doubt it has a good outlook. Besides, we see a strong trend activity of ADX, therefore, there is a great probability of attacking 1.4034 with a further movement to a middle-term space to 1.4964. Support by the middle Bollinger band (1.3249) must be pointed out. Any movement down to this point won't break ascending structure.

                    Weekly chart: the last week was finished by a very narrow inside bar. Support is located at 1.3715, from this point bulls can develop an attack to 1.4034. Decline below 1.3715 makes plan with movement to 1.3249 real.

                    Day chart: the pair had been under sales within the last 2 weeks, which is seen due to 2 bearish pins coming one after one. Bollinger enevlopes are getting narrow speaking about coming impulse movement. Support 1.3715 also seems confirmed and important from a diagnostic point of view.

                    Conclusion: so, main plan is growth to 1.4034, following to a possible touch of 1.3715. Another option is the break of 1.3715 and decline to 1.3249.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      The EUR/USD keeps trading in a narrow channel


                      Euro

                      The EUR/USD plans to continue a downward trend.
                      At this point, the trading continues between two strong levels: 1.3840 - 1.3760. The price is located almost in the middle of those levels while initially it strayed from the resistance 1.3840, above which it failed to consolidate after a short break.
                      The support levels are 1.3720 - 1.3740, and the resistance levels are 1.3810 -1.3830.
                      MACD is a zero area, which indicates the current corrective movement.

                      Trading Recommendations
                      The EUR/USD continues the consolidation after the channel breakdown. This scenario assumes the market continuation to decrease to the level 1.3750 break.
                      Alternative Trading
                      The resistance 1.3840 break will lead up to a reversal downward trend. The potential target for the growth should be the level 1.3900.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Forecast of AUD/USD


                        Monthly chart: so, a strong rolling swing upwards is completed, its pike is bearish pinbar. It is a very strong Southern determination and, besides, it is correct in technical point of view. Therefore, a major middle-term expectation is start of decline down to 0.84 (the bottom Bollinger band). The point where such expectations may break is the breakthrough above the middle Bollinger band (0.9625).

                        Weekly chart: here we see development of reversal following to bullish convergence. Key resistance point is 0.9625. Here growth scenario is the main point (marked by blue arrow), but the situation on the monthly chart tells us that start of a new downward wave (red arrow) is equally probable. The middle Bollinger band (0.9059) performs as the key supportive point.

                        Day chart: a strong pinbar from the supportive bottom Bollinger band (0.9208) is seen here, which is a very good sign for purchases. Another option is the break under the bottom, break of pinbar and decline.

                        Conclusion: main scenario is growth from 0.9208 to the area 0.9625 Another option is getting under 0.92 and decline to 0.8650.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          The EUR/USD may return to the growth
                          Euro



                          The euro was steady against the dollar on Friday as disappointing data on consumer sentiment in the U.S. boosted demand for the dollar, while the concern about the violence in Iraq continues to exert pressure.
                          The euro gained some support after the data release which showed that industrial production in the region increased by 0.8% in April, exceeding the forecasted increase 0.4%. The March figure was revised down to 0.4% with 0.3% of previously reported.

                          Trading recommendations

                          We advise to short with the first target 1.3435. After overcoming this target it will be relevant to sell to the mark 1.3367.

                          Read more

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            We expect a long EUR/USD decrease
                            Euro

                            The euro fell against the U.S. dollar, trading around week low levels after the disappointing report on the German industrial orders, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi comments continue to exert pressure.
                            ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated the bank forecasts that rates would remain at current or lower levels in the long term. He highlighted that "the governing council also unanimous in their commitment to the non-traditional instruments use if necessary, to fight the too long low inflation period risk."
                            Trading recommendations
                            We advise to consider the short positions with the first target - 1.3535. When the price consolidates below the first target it will go to the level of 1.3480.
                            Learn more

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              S&P500, oil and platinum. Weekly review
                              S&P500


                              Monthly chart: bulls continue to put a pressure, but in general uptrend looks like almost fully exhausted. Key resistance is based on 2050,7, from where reversal or a significant correction will take place with a high probability.

                              Weekly chart: oscillator's divergence confirms that reversal is close to come. Nevertheless, we are waiting for new highs to be reached before.

                              Day chart: divergence is also strong here, besides, resistance from the upper Bollinger band (1991.4) is still working. Support is based at 1956.6 ( bottom Bollinger band).

                              Conclusion: main scenario is descend from current levels to 1956.6 and a further growth to1991.4. Another option is the direct growth to 2050.7

                              LEARN MORE

                              Comment

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