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  1. #1
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    Daily Market Overview by IFC Markets

    Greenback Gains Ground Ahead of NFP Report

    The US dollar on Thursday and early on Friday gained against the most of its peers due to ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 55.4, stronger than forecasts at 52.1 and surprisingly better Jobless Claims. The FED decided not to touch on asset purchases program giving a dovish tone on its statement on Wednesday but there is an extra focus now on economic data until next meeting. Early signs indicate that macros are going to be nicely improved. Next major release is for US Non-Farm Employment for July expected to increase by 184K. The US dollar index after finding support at 81.38 climbed back to previous resistance at 82.12 and breached that during US session rising as high as 82.43, ahead of the NFP the index is more likely to remain unchanged.

    More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-overview/show/1475

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    Risk Sentiment Worsens as CHN Markit Composite PMI Displays Contraction

    Early on Monday’s opening currency markets participants appear less willing to take risk, with the USDJPY falling to 98.38 as traders prefer a safer currency. After Friday’s disappointing US NFP the greenback kept its downside bias, losing against its major counterparties with the US dollar index falling to 81.80 after drawing a resistance at 82.43. Moreover, the HSBC Market PMI Services for July stood at 51.3 the same like in June, indicating expansion in July since it is above 50, defying global concerns over Chinese weakening economic activity. However at Markit report Composite PMI signaled a contraction in July, also it is said that business decreased and the Services PMI remained unchanged due to profit margin squeeze, meaning prices dropped to support demand. The latter added pressure on risk appetite inducing further traders to abandon riskier assets, as a consequence NIKKEI 225 closed lower by 1.44%.

    More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-overview/show/1476

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    RBA Cut Key Rate to 2.5% Still AUDUSD Gains Ground

    The Reserve Bank of Australia cut key rate by 0.25% to a new record low at 2.50%. At its statement the RBA though did not sounded as dovish as expected providing some support for its currency. More specifically Glenn Stevens said that growth has been a bit below trend over the past year, unemployment rose while inflation remained low providing space for rate cut. Lastly said for forward guidance, the policy would be adjusted as needed to foster sustainable growth after assessment of the outlook with inflation consistent with its target. Indicating that RBA does not plans to ease further this level of accommodation. Still, market participants have been expecting more dovish comments by RBA and that could explain AUDUSD advancement from 0.8904 to 0.8988. In contrary Aussie Trade surplus was at 600 million in June, lower than expected but higher from previous month trade surplus, while House price Index surprisingly increased by 2.4% in June from 0.8% the previous month.

    More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-overview/show/1477

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    USD/JPY Declines on FED Comments, Sterling Steady Ahead of Inflation Report

    The US dollar is losing ground against the Japanese Yen as equities were under pressure on comments that FED would reduce asset purchase facility. In addition the Bank of Japan starts today its two day meeting and is mostly expected to maintain the same course. US indices closed lower last night with Asian indices following the same direction, NIKKEI 225 dropped substantially, by 4.00% closing below 14,000, Hang Seng also declined by 0.93%. As a virtue of that traders were abandoning equities and placing their money in safer places like Yen. Earlier on Wednesday we saw the USDJPY breaching key support at 97.57, triggering more sell orders and driving the pair to more than a month low at 96.82.

    More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-overview/show/1478

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    JPY Strengthens as BOJ Holds Policy, Aussie Surges on Increased Chinese Imports

    The Bank of Japan at its monetary statement announced that will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing for as long is needed to achieve inflation of 2% with CPI data signaling that is on the right path as inflation turned positive in June. BOJ maintained current monetary stance of increasing monetary base by 60-70 trillion Yen per annum, as well as key rate at record low level of 0.0-0.10%.

    The Japanese Yen strengthened against its major counterparty with the USDJPY pair drawing a resistance earlier at 96.82 and falling to fresh 1 month low at 96.11. The downtrend is well established with recently supportive data for the Yen, thus we would expect lower levels in the intraday but we will minimize exposure before US Jobless Claims.

    More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-overview/show/1479

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    Noobs, cease flooding us with your spam in the General Section. Post your junk in the brokers section.

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    Risk-on drives USDJPY to 98.33, Upbeat French and German GDP Lift Euro

    US Shares last night closed in positive ground reflecting investors improved risk sentiment after US Retail Sales excluding auto sector rose by 0.5% in July, beating estimates of 0.4% increase. Asian shares followed at the same momentum with NIKKEI 225 advancing by 1.32% underpinned as well by Shinzo Abe’s yesterday comments that could cut corporate tax. The USDJPY has been in a bullish development rising to 61.8% Fibonacci level of 99.90 to 95.79, at 98.33. As of writing it spiked slightly above 98.33 and we would expect the pair to continue higher should it maintain ground above that key resistance.





    The greenback value appreciated as expectations are increasing towards FED withdrawal from current $85B level of asset purchases in the next meeting amid more indications add that recovery is solid. In addition, corporate earnings have been in general stronger than projected reinforcing speculation of reducing bond buying program. The US dollar index rebounded to resistance at 81.84 yesterday on a 3-day surging buoyed by key support at 80.84.

    In the European continent, cheerful GDP data kept coming as the French GDP figure displayed an increase of 0.5% up from expectations at 0.1% for the second quarter, beating previous quarter reading of -0.2% and becoming positive after 2-year time. Followed by German GDP report indicating 0.7% increase, above expectation of 0.6% expansion in the 2nd quarter and up compared to previous quarter 0.1% growth. The Euro against the greenback was well underpinned and recovered back to resistance at 1.3276. Against the British pound the Euro retraced to 0.8595 from 0.8556. Looking ahead, Euro-zone GDP release later today is likely to beat estimations further backing the Euro, also traders are focusing UK Job data.

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    US Dollar Lower on Tapering Uncertainty, Major Counterparties Strengthen

    Overnight the greenback was weighed by dovish comments of St. Louis FED member James Bullard. He said that FOMC must see more macroeconomic data of the 2nd quarter of 2013 ahead of any monetary decision. In addition, he stressed that policy makers should not base their decision to reduce pace of asset purchases on future forecasts but on recent growth data. Recent macroeconomic data have been weak in last quarters while forecasts are optimistic with projection performance being poor in last years. Concerning inflation he added that the FED would not normally taper asset purchases with inflation below target. Investors stepped back on expectations for reducing the monthly $85B of asset purchases at the next meeting with the US dollar index falling back to 81.38 from recent peak at 81.84.

    Greenback’s weakness helped the GBPUSD to retest its yesterday session high at 1.5545 and we would expect the pair to rise to 1.5570 should the resistance at 1.5545 is breached. Moreover, the British pound surged on Wednesday amid stronger than expected Claimant count report and on BOE meeting minutes. The Euro was also advancing versus the US dollar, reaching as high as 1.3309 and then consolidating back to 1.3286, the currency pair was backed by uncertainty on FED asset purchases and on recent Euro-zone GDP upbeat data. Euro zone entered into growth figures for the first time after the 3rd quarter of 2011.

    Lastly, we saw the USDJPY falling back to 97.56 and that is mainly because of two reasons. First, like the most major counterparties of the US dollar they are strengthening on concerns about FED tapering. Secondly corporate tax-cut hopes faded as the government spokesman and Finance minister devalued its importance. Japanese stock index, NIKKEI, retreated by 2.12% to 13,752.94 and the Yen strengthened on risk aversion as well as on profit taking. Technically the USDJPY found resistance at 61.8% of the 99.90 to 95.79, at 98.33 and resumed its downside. For that reason, we consider the 95.79 to 98.33 a corrective move with prices likely to head lower to next support at 96.86.


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    US Dollar Loses Previous Gains as Mixed Data Created Tapering Uncertainty

    The US dollar jumped yesterday on better than expected Jobless Claims as people claiming unemployment benefits dropped to 320K the previous week much lower than 334K expected and down from 335K two weeks ago. US claims were coupled with CPI release indicating that all item 12-month to July inflation increased to 2.0% from 1.8% as expected and the core inflation rose to 1.7% from 1.6% in June.

    Therefore the US dollar initially was supported by upbeat jobs report, with the US dollar index surging to 81.88 but then uncertainty on asset tapering came back to markets pushing the index lower to 81.06. Weaker than projected US Industrial production and disappointing Philadelphia Manufacturing index also made the US dollar heavier. Chances were increased in favor of asset tapering with treasury yields rising, the 10Y bond rose from 2.71% to 2.77% and the 5Y bond from 1.48% to 1.54%.

    The Euro increased to as high as 1.3360 as the US dollar was losing value and now consolidated to 1.3335. Looking ahead Euro zone CPI figures are going to be released today , expected to remain mostly unchanged and that could impact EURUSD in terms of ECB monetary decision.

    The British pound against the greenback had one more reason to gather value, the UK Retail Sales increased surprisingly more than projected by 1.1% in July up from 0.2% the previous month. Positive data keep coming in for the British pound that advanced to $1.5650, rising to fresh 2-month high. we would expect the pair to climb to key resistance at 1.5753 where the upper boundary of a long term wide range is located. Looking ahead, US Housing news later today could increase volatility though in US dollar’s counterparties.


  10. #10
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    Currencies Almost Unchanged on Monday Morning Trading

    FX markets are steady today with majors opening around the same level like ending on Friday night. The Euro against the greenback is fluctuating around 1.3320 just below the top of 1.3398/1.2755 long term wide range. The greenback retreated on Friday amid weaker than expected US Housing data. US indices also closed lower on Friday on risk averse and on uncertainty on FED asset tapering. On Wednesday investors would focus on US FOMC minutes of the 31st July meeting for further clues regarding FED’s intentions on September meeting.

    Japanese equities were positive in today’s trading after Exports increasing by 12.2% in July compared to 7.4% in June, however Imports also increased by 19.6% in July up from 11.8% in June, widening adjusted Trade deficit to 944.0 bln from 663.7 bln the previous month. The USDJPY drew a support line at 97.35 and rose back to resistance at 97.80. The Japanese aggressive monetary policy seems to have a positive effect on inflation that became positive in the last reading but does not seem capable to achieve 2% target. Moreover, the GDP latest figure slowed to 0.6% down from 0.9% in the previous release. Adding to that Moody’s reviewed the economic growth of Japan as credit negative.

    Elsewhere, the British pound remains firmly near 1.5650 against the US dollar with no major releases to expect this week for the sterling apart the 2nd estimate of quarterly GDP on Friday. The greenback versus the loonie expands into 1.0358/1.0292 sideways with traders looking towards Retail Sales on Thursday. Lastly, concerning Euro zone Manufacturing and Services PMI reports on Thursday would reveal further indications for growth prospects.

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