Wednesday May 21, 2008

Indonesia shares are likely to trade flat to slightly lower given bearish global markets after stocks in the U.S. finished lower Friday due to rising oil prices.Crude oil broke another record above $129 a barrel Tuesday, spurring worries about consumption and corporate earning outlook Overall, healthy inflows for high yielding assets may well maintain overall sentiment amid strong resistance at 2520-2527. Streets demonstrations may peak later today to oppose the government's plan for fuel prices hikes. They are all set and hopefully ending peacefully. Consumer price index may hit more than 10% by the end of the year, which could cause the central bank to increase its key interest rate to 9.25% by end-December. The main index today may be moving up and Down by 14 and 46 points. Main index 2467-2550.

TLKM: 8,500-8,700. Its ADRs in NY fell 1.5% to $37.12, or equal with IDR8,600 based on USD/IDR of IDR9,275. I am again bored with Telkom...

ISAT: 5,8000-6,200. Its ADRs in NY fell 0.6% to $32.11 or equal with IDR5,950. Building volume should
continue, with any level below IDR5,800 signalling strong buy recommendation.

INCO: 6,400-7,100. It is still in a risky zone, but would be worth profit taking if it fails to break above IDR6,950 resistance. Overall, some foreign fundsare still collecting these shares for 12-month investment

BUMI: 8,000-8,800. How high can you go....? All measure in chart point out of a mild correction after it ailed to break above IDR8,550. Bullish confirmation looks fading away, but may reoccur if it is able to break above IDR8,650, which is hard to count on.

PTBA: 11,200-11,900. You may take profit if it hits above IDR12,000, or if it fails to break above IDR11,800-immediate resistance. BUY on weakness or at any level below IDR11,200.

ASII: 21,200-22,500. It has been moving as expected, but may prone to profit taking given worries of possible interest rates hikes in coming months. I still go with buy on weakness or at any level below IDR20,000.

CPO-related companies: Please be alert for possible mild to heavy correction amid falling commodity prices
due to progressive export tax regime.

UNTR: 13,600-16,400
ELTY: 420-510
TBLA: 600-700
UNSP: 1,720-1,900
KAEF: 160-220
LTLS: 1,200-1,600
KIJA: 141-167
SMMCB: 1,140-1,320
MTDL: 146-210
TMPI: 280-400