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Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

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  • Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

    Well, it's better to be late than never.

    ===========================================
    Psychology & Sentiment Analysis
    ===========================================

    Market open orders
    - Last week, Buy open orders at: 1.30 & 1.31 (strong)
    - Last week, Sell open orders at: 1.35 (strong)
    - Last Friday, Buy open orders at: 1.32 - 1.34 (weak)
    - Last Friday, Sell open orders at: 1.37 (strong)

    Market Bull Bear Power
    - Last week, market was 55% bullish and 45% bearish.
    - Last Friday, market was 47% bullish and 53% bearish.

    Currency Strong Correlations (daily)
    - EU is -70.4% with UC
    - EU is +77.8% with EC
    - EU is +77.2% with EJ
    - UC is -74.0% with EJ
    - GU is +71.2% with EJ
    - GU is +75.7% with GC
    - GU is +91.8% with GJ
    - UJ has no strong correlation
    summary:
    - EUR is moving the market on daily data.

    Market Volatility:
    - H4: increasing
    - D1: increasing
    - W1: decreasing

    Commercial
    - long : short = 0.9359 : 1
    - Trend = -6.4%
    - Commercial vs non-commercial: sideway

    Regards,

  • #2
    Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

    Hi William

    First, thank for the analysis of EURUSD. I still consider
    myself as beginner in fx. Therefore, if you don't mind.

    Could you explain who you get those value and conclusion
    from each of the sub-title given like

    Market open orders, Currency Strong Correlations (daily) & etc.

    How you get those value and conclusion.

    Thank youl

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

      Hi,

      I got this from various sources.

      Market Open Orders
      = The limit or stop people have put and not being exercised yet.

      Market Bull Bear Power
      = Which one is stronger? Bull or Bear?

      Currency Strong Correlation
      = How currency in this world react one and another, if 1 is up how will the other follow?

      Market Volatility
      = How volatile the current market is

      Commercial
      = Those who has real physical business in the financial world.

      Regards,

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

        Hi William,

        You mentioned that you get it from various source,
        mind to share with us which of the website to
        get those info.

        And how we going to analyze those info for our
        daily use. Any example is greatly appreciated.

        Due to my lifestyle, I only can look to trade in
        the daily chart. Hence, I always looking for technique
        or tips to help improve my probability of my trade.

        Thank you.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

          I'm terribly sorry, that I can't give out my reference info due to "gentleman agreement" to keep it secret.

          If you are trading based on daily chart, these data would be helpful, imho. Coz it's based on weekly numbers.

          How to use? Well, there are ways to use it.
          - Market Open Orders could be used to put stop loss / take profit or even for entering position if you are contra-trend trader.
          - Market Bull Bear Power & Commercial gives us the overall trend of last week. So if bull number is a lot bigger, the general trend is up.
          - Currency strong correlation could be used to choose which pair we want to trade. If EUR is moving the market like in this week data, any EU of EJ could be traded with more volatility.
          - Market Volatility... Uhm, I guess you know how to use it.

          So, it's basically giving us the overall trend and strong S&R.

          Regards,

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

            Hi William,

            Everyone have their own secret, I will not ask too
            much.

            I just want to learn as much as possible as I am
            a beginner in fx, hope that you will post more stuff
            for us all to share and learn.

            Thank you.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

              The above 1st post is a compiled list from many resources.

              The most useful thing is the market open orders imho.

              People, gurus, EA, trading system, etc may say that the support / resistance is at a certain price. But how do we know that it is correct? By their sales letter? By backtesting performance?

              This open orders are proof that most (not all, coz fx spot is not centralized) big traders are putting their S&R at that price. Fighting against the big player is like fighting with a shark. The power of money is a fact in financial world. No teory, no analysis, no thinking, it's just there.

              This is why sometimes we keep wondering that all the technical and fundamental analysis should do 1 thing while the price is moving the other way around. Those big players don't need analysis, with the power of money they can move the market. Every analysis in this world would fail at their feet.

              Although it's 1 week late, I still think it's quite relevant especially if there are sudden price spike, we would know when to follow or exit.

              The 2nd most important thing imho is Commercial vs non-commercial. The reading for last week is sideway. If the reading is extreme, we could ride in for reversal of trend.

              What I really like from this market sentiment is that it does not based on any prediction or any teaching or any theory or any analysis. It's just pure data. It's like having the level 2 book at equity market. Prediction could be wrong, but data couldn't be wrong.

              I'm still searching for more accurate data such as 1 hour lagging or real time data would be the true holy grail for me, but the best I could find is this 1 week lagging data.

              Hope that helps.

              Regards,

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

                Sunday May 17, 2009

                ===========================================
                Psychology & Sentiment Analysis
                ===========================================

                Market open orders
                - Last week, Buy open orders at: 1.34 - 1.345 (strong)
                - Last week, Sell open orders at: 1.38 (strong)
                - Last Friday, Buy open orders at: 1.34 & 1.355 (strong)
                - Last Friday, Sell open orders at: 1.32 & 1.38 (strong)

                Market Bull Bear Power
                - Last week, market was 45% bullish and 55% bearish.
                - Last Friday, market was 49% bullish and 51% bearish.

                Market Volatility:
                - H4: sideway
                - D1: not moving
                - W1: sideway

                Commercial & Non
                - Commercial long : short = 1 : 1.4
                - Non Commercial long : short = 1.28 : 1
                - Commercial vs non-commercial: sideway

                Regards,

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

                  Hi William,

                  Thank for the info, from my understanding ,it seem like the coming
                  week for EURUSD is sideway market or going to be moving in a channel ?

                  Please correct if my analysis is wrong.

                  Thank

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Weekly EurUsd Psychology & Sentiment Analysis

                    Yes, from the data it seems that from last week data, this week would be sideway. Well, that is if, the past = the present = the near future.

                    Market tends to vary time to time. My data is based on weekly data, you could try following FXInstructor technical lessons. He posts daily so you could get more signals.

                    Last 2 week prediction for last week trading was quite valid. Price was moving between 1.37 - 1.35 let's see what will happen this week.

                    Regards,

                    Comment

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