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  • Where will Dow go from here?

    want to find out anyone has any views?

    i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

    target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

  • #2
    What are you basing your analysis on? Most system traders try not to predict general market direction, but react based on some pattern formation / indicator / other principle. ALL in the context of excellent money management. Are you shorting the market now?

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Kristianto View Post
      want to find out anyone has any views?

      i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

      target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

      Yes, I have the same analisys for DIA.

      SP500 maybe in 1300 crash.

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      • #4
        my statement is based on the simple fundamental view that globally, economies are weak. it is only a matter of time before the world wakes up to it and realise that stocks are currently overpriced.

        in the usa, the american economy is still the world's largest debtor with debt at an all time high. no to mention that they are still struggling to get its act together after the last financial crisis.

        in europe, the situation is far worse. we had a warning when the PIIGS issue came to light 3 years ago. until today it does not look like it is being resolved but instead the hole is being dug deeper and deeper as more and more european countries get downgraded.

        in asia, china is thefacing a bubbling crisis where there is simply not enough drivers to keep the economy growing, even while inflation and prices there keep climbing skyhigh. it is a bubble waiting to burst.

        in the BRIC economies, growth has slowed considerably and are not the emerging market darlings they once were.

        in the middle-east there is further trouble brewing with palestine seeking recognition as a sovereign state and the usa tries to exert influence this time taking on iran.

        with all this news, we just came out of a new year rally that has made everything look extremely rosy and fine. but the bad news is just waiting to trigger thats all.

        there is a bull in the chinashop but everyone is just pretending not to see it. lets see how long they can ignore all this?

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        • #5
          Hi guys, nice thread, I personally believe that the markets will really get moving after elections... the Washington gridlock doesnt help any fundamental school at this point... Melinda

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          • #6
            Do some of you agree also on the slow formation of a gold bubble as well ??

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            • #7
              In the long term, 5 years or so, it will definitely go up. Meanwhile I just keep scalping it in the intraday direction (1-5 minute timeframe). Works just fine. YM is a good trading vehicle.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Kristianto View Post
                want to find out anyone has any views?

                i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

                target 11000 for dow by march 2012.
                If this chart is correct, you are somewhat off. By 2000 pts.

                http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YM/W?anticache=1331417947

                I think it's safer to bet on shorter term moves.

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                • #9
                  Dow will drop from now till Mid-April or so!

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                  • #10
                    at this stage i will put my hand up and say that the dow hasn't exactly gone the way i thought it would.

                    by some strange reason, the US seems to time and again be able to confound economists with its numbers and keep chugging along positively.

                    anyway for all those who are happily riding this bull wave, here's a nice little article for you:
                    http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/empire-and-jobless-data-confirm-us-economic-momentum-1626603331

                    i am still maintaining my bearish take. although im not sure how much furhter my pockets will empty...

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Unclepips View Post
                      Dow will drop from now till Mid-April or so!
                      A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.

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                      • #12
                        Hi,

                        I base most if not all of my trades on cycles and timing. I do not trade with price at all.

                        Long term trading is for investors like you have huge fund to hold. But a retail trader like me who is trying to grab from the market for a little bit of this and that cannot afford to hold anything for 12 months or so. I can't do anything long term at all. Thanks for your suggestion, though!

                        Originally posted by sm_jew View Post
                        A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by sm_jew View Post
                          A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.
                          I agree that the long side is safer long term. I remember Dow at 4000 and then 5000. It was 15 years ago or so, probably more. I am not sure we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months, but I very much doubt we will see 12,000 either.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by joe_sixpack View Post
                            I agree that the long side is safer long term. I remember Dow at 4000 and then 5000. It was 15 years ago or so, probably more. I am not sure we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months, but I very much doubt we will see 12,000 either.
                            Yes. I remember those days too. Dow hit 4K and then 5K the same year. If I recall it correctly it was in 1995. Very good year and a very good decade, made a lot of money back then being long MFs since late 93.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Unclepips View Post
                              Hi,

                              I base most if not all of my trades on cycles and timing. I do not trade with price at all.

                              Long term trading is for investors like you have huge fund to hold. But a retail trader like me who is trying to grab from the market for a little bit of this and that cannot afford to hold anything for 12 months or so. I can't do anything long term at all. Thanks for your suggestion, though!
                              I daytrade quite often these days, but usually on more volatile days. I am doing pretty well. But I am also heavily invested in diamonds and recently exited AAPL some 500 pts above my entry point. I thought it would go higher after the recent earnings, but disappointed a bit, so I sold it. That was a very good investment. Did not expect it to go that high, but planned to hold it for at least 2-3 years as I often do with my better performing stocks. I might still buy some AAPL shares on a pullback. AAPL is also good for daytrading.

                              Comment

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