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  1. #1
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    Arrow Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Hi All Fx guru,

    In the past, most currencies pair movement is normal, depend on the
    individual currencies pair.

    However, since the beginning of last few months, the market movement is
    very volatile.

    1.I like to know why so much movement in one hour now compare to the past.
    For example, EUDUSD in the past is 50-60 movement per hour, now, the movement
    is more than 200-300 pips. What is the cause and why.

    2.With so much movement per hour now, most strategy that we use in the past are useless as the stop loss of most hourly strategy are 40-60 pips. It cannot withstand the current market
    volatile movement. Is there any advise on how to solve such issue beside increasing our stop loss
    level.

    Thank you :o

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  3. #2
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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Quote Originally Posted by learningfx
    Hi All Fx guru,

    In the past, most currencies pair movement is normal, depend on the
    individual currencies pair.

    However, since the beginning of last few months, the market movement is
    very volatile.

    1.I like to know why so much movement in one hour now compare to the past.
    For example, EUDUSD in the past is 50-60 movement per hour, now, the movement
    is more than 200-300 pips. What is the cause and why.

    2.With so much movement per hour now, most strategy that we use in the past are useless as the stop loss of most hourly strategy are 40-60 pips. It cannot withstand the current market
    volatile movement. Is there any advise on how to solve such issue beside increasing our stop loss
    level.

    Thank you :o
    Hi
    i am not a expert but for the past months - the fx market has been following the stock market very closely.Thus it is affecting all the major paris in their movement.I have trading using T3B forex system by Clarence Chee and so far i have gain profits.Of course there are times when i go against the rules due to fear n greed thus causing me loose money :cry: :cry:
    i think someone has uploaded Clarence ebook - you may want to take a look at it.The most profitable system of his is the PIPS Intra day..
    cheers
    dudjom

  4. #3
    Diamond Member Array William's Avatar
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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    I'm not a guru. But here's something that i've read (disclaimer: most are not my opinion, I just read about it somewhere):

    However, since the beginning of last few months, the market movement is very volatile.
    1.I like to know why so much movement in one hour now compare to the past. For example, EUDUSD in the past is 50-60 movement per hour, now, the movement is more than 200-300 pips. What is the cause and why.
    - You need to understand that, to some degree, investment world is useless without business world. To some degree, business world could exist prosperously without financial world.

    - You need to know what are the months and why. If you pay attention "last few months" are Jan, Dec, and Nov, which are fiscal month for almost all companies in the world. That includes, Toyota, Honda, GE, Nokia, Motorola, Microsoft, Citibank, Reuters, CNN, Bloomberg, etc. Now with the fiscal month coming, those smart executives were transferring, squeezing, arbitraging every money that the company could save. It is only natural if the the forex market is very volatile. It's not only this year.

    - If you pay attention, it's been the case for almost every year in financial history. Kathy has been predicting the fall of eur on Jan, because of this accounting cycle.

    - I think everybody realize that oil price had been played nicely from $40 to $140 and now back to $40 again. This brings catastrophe to transportation and logistic industries. Plus there was also low consumer confident. Thus some of the big players were panic, and didn't know what to do, creating market volatility.

    - plus obama, plus israel, plus the cut rate, plus fannie & freddie. Well, you could add the rest.

    2.With so much movement per hour now, most strategy that we use in the past are useless as the stop loss of most hourly strategy are 40-60 pips. It cannot withstand the current market
    volatile movement. Is there any advise on how to solve such issue beside increasing our stop loss level.
    1. don't trade forex, or
    2. find another system, or
    3. increase your stop loss

    Regards,

  5. #4
    Diamond Member Array William's Avatar
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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    i am not a expert but for the past months - the fx market has been following the stock market very closely.Thus it is affecting all the major paris in their movement.
    That's not what I've read.

    Stock market is in somewhat recession. People could short sell stock, but selling short without any value is always not a preferred move of the big players. Even Warren bought a falling China Gas company, not short selling it.

    With the stock market is falling, big players are minimizing their position in the stock market and going to commodity and forex market. You can see the proof of this by looking at gold price. The retracements are very wide since 2007. Big players dump stock and got into forex. Thus, forex is not following the stock.

    However, there is also a condition that big players dump stock, thus holding the USD, making USD movement kindda mirror stock movement, although that is not the real fundamental reason.

    Disclaimer: this is also what i've read somewhere else, not my opinion. Don't trade on this advices

    Regards,

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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Quote Originally Posted by William
    i am not a expert but for the past months - the fx market has been following the stock market very closely.Thus it is affecting all the major paris in their movement.
    That's not what I've read.

    Stock market is in somewhat recession. People could short sell stock, but selling short without any value is always not a preferred move of the big players. Even Warren bought a falling China Gas company, not short selling it.

    With the stock market is falling, big players are minimizing their position in the stock market and going to commodity and forex market. You can see the proof of this by looking at gold price. The retracements are very wide since 2007. Big players dump stock and got into forex. Thus, forex is not following the stock.

    However, there is also a condition that big players dump stock, thus holding the USD, making USD movement kindda mirror stock movement, although that is not the real fundamental reason.

    Disclaimer: this is also what i've read somewhere else, not my opinion. Don't trade on this advices

    Regards,
    Thks for sharing.
    just to share- this was a live trade done - using Clarence's system.
    Hope it will help some traders out there
    cheers

    gbp jpy - 27 feb 09 - trade 1 - closed
    Date of Trade (GMT): Feb 27, 2009
    Live
    Currency Pair: GBP/JPY
    Remark - Asian Stock Market Bearish
    Trade: Short
    Method: PIPS Intraday
    Entry Time (GMT): (Feb 26, 2009) (23:19)
    Entry Price: 140.73
    Initial Stop Loss and Basis: (35 pips)
    Initial Target Profit and Basis: 1.4000 - Psychological Level
    Adjusted Target Profit: 137.75 - 25 Feb 09's Low
    Planned Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2
    Stop Adjustment:
    140.73 (protected 0 pips)
    Exit Price: 139.68
    Exit Time(GMT): 00:55 (Feb 27, 2009)
    Reason for Exit: Manual Closed
    Profit / Loss: +105 pips
    Actual Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3

  7. #6
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    Smile Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Hi learningfx,

    For me the more volatility is better, i don't want to trade in low volatility period...

    You need dynamic stoploss not hardstop, ATR indicator is good choice in this case. In hourly TF set ATR value (8) and your stopploss should be twice or 3x, or maybe you could switch to lower Time Frame like 15M or maybe 1M TF.....Lol

    Just my opinion, Peace... :mrgreen: :peace:

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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Quote Originally Posted by z4wil
    You need dynamic stoploss not hardstop, ATR indicator is good choice in this case. In hourly TF set ATR value (8) and your stopploss should be twice or 3x, or maybe you could switch to lower Time Frame like 15M or maybe 1M TF.....Lol
    Good Tehnique Z4will :arrow:

    I like Dynamic SL like use ATR base, or Volatility like Bband Vstops etc ...

  9. #8
    Diamond Member Array William's Avatar
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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Good Tehnique Z4will :arrow:

    I like Dynamic SL like use ATR base, or Volatility like Bband Vstops etc ...
    Yes, it's good. That's why I use it on Lyly also

    Regards,

  10. #9
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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    Hi,

    Thank for all the comments & advise. I take notes
    of them.

    There is no right or wrong answers in trading. :arrow:

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    Re: Seek advise on some simple fx questions

    My thanks for all the comments too.

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