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  • Technical Talks..

    Hello Friends

    Greetings to all the beloved and Great hearted memebers of this Forum. we all know the sharing sprite of the people here. and I also admit I got very valuable Tools and other materials from here as well.

    Now the Big question is Did it Helped ? The answer could be yes and No Both. Yes it made our Job easier. But did it helped as a Trader.. "well probably Not"

    why? what would I say. success in this field is more of Our own attitude. i.e. How we take those informations. How we applied them and how we managed ourself including our trade when things turn wrong. and also what we did when things were going Right. You know what I mean. I had read Long ago that two Good traders doing opposite things can still make money. It took me years to realise that It's True. Ok Now lets cut it down.. As I understand that we all know all these..so no point in repeating them.


    I have always belived If there is 5 ways for doing a thing...choose the one which is most simple. so I'll be using very simple indicators and simple Language.


    I'm Going to talk about technical build ups which have Good probabilities... especially Eur/Usd, and Gbp/Usd. an dof co about others too.

    I'm also going to Listen from you guys about those setups. and your views.


    so Lets proceed...

  • #2
    Eur/usd: current 1.4330

    Its pretty much clear now that we are heading in some major downtrend mode.
    Looking at the monthly charts we can see those bear candle. Then again the rally which happened to be slightly Lower than the previous. Bad indication. Now I'm expecting that we will have about 2-3 more bear candles atleast. this means a Lot.. In other words we could be seeing two -three upcoming months when price will go down and down. However I want to see the price below 1.4250. for conformed downtrend (mid-term). being as pessimist

    Lets Look at weekly:
    I rememberd last sunday when I was Looking this chart.. It said Bulls, Bulls all the way. I would have not belived that things will change so fast. well this is technical all about.. when signals change..views have to be changed.


    well now I would say that If this Bears have strength and if its Likely to last Longer... Price should not be Trading above 1.4500. or precisely 1.4525.. Means If this downtrend is genuine any Rally will not be able to push price above these Levels.


    Looking at daily chart we still have room left till 1.4250, the maybe 1.4170. after these levels are reached.. a Rally is expected. I cannot say how much Up that Rally will Go.. as I will have to watch chart setups then. But yes that Rally should be below 1.4500.



    Long term projection is 1.3150. Huh Too early to say.. right ? well I want to see price trading below 1.4250. and then see what Bulls did there. If everything is fine and If bearish pressure is really Genuine. we will definetly see 1.3150 (its in weekly pespective, so It will take its time)


    cheers.

    Comment


    • #3
      Eur/Usd current: 1.4385


      This is my Trade planns for Today and Tommrow:


      Sell Limit: 1.4410

      stops: 1.4440

      Tp: 1.4290.


      There is a great possibility that my stops would be Hit... maybe 1.4460 would have been Ok.Insted of 1.4440.

      However the RR ratio is irresistible. So I just cannot Ignore It.

      Comment


      • #4
        Eur/usd: current: 1.4380

        After 6Hr of ranging and execution... Price now Going its way. I mean my way. Good to see.. Lets see more.

        Comment


        • #5
          Hi manu,

          One thing I've learned about the market is that it will always surprise you, so either of us could end up predicting the next big move

          Looking on the Daily I see a move up from 23rd May to 7th June, then an almost exact 50% fib retracement.

          Monthly has been bullish all year apart from May and Weekly is currently bullish (as were the last 3 weeks in May).

          I would be going Long here if I was a longer term trader, target 1.4831 (close to the top of the previous significant high on 4th May). Alternatively a shorter term target would be around 1.4680 where we saw resistance on 7th and 8th June. Stops for either trade would be just below (10 or 20 pips) the most recent lows at around 1.4320 (aggressive) or just below the "psychological 00 level" at 1.4300.

          Excellent R:R on those trades too

          Comment


          • #6
            Hi soundfx

            Thanks for stoping By and posting your views.

            Your analysis is quite Ok. and I used to have same view Just a week ago. Looking at Ma's and Adx on weekly/monthly. Its still Uptrend No doubt.(important thing is that Adx is still showing a lot of momentum and strength too) another Bullish sign.

            My views has always been to catch the trend/thrust on those Longer term timeframes and then to Short or Long those rally/dip on smaller ones. making multiple trades till the trend Last.

            I have posted my short views (mid-term) because I see something on monthly/weekly charts. On monthly there is a pattern forming of Lower High and Lower Low. and I expect it to go for another 2-3 candles atlest. Although its just a start. and then weekly charts... It shows another conformation for Bears. Last week close waas a bear candle, then the high marked (before the drop) is Lower High. we cannot Ignore this. (no doubt Long Term we are in Bulls, and this could simply be a retrace). But a gradual dip or retrace on monthly could mean a Lot. It could easily mean 1000-1500 pips.

            I'm really very keen to see what the Bulls do now. If they are unable to push price above 1.4525/ weekly pivots mid-levels. This will make obvious then that the Bulls are lacking strength . And then I will start aggressive Shorts.

            And of coz.. I will stick my views for 1.3150..

            Things are building up... and its always a Gamble when they are fresh.

            I respect your view and could understand what and why you are Bullish. However I want to see price trading above 1.4500/4525. which I think It won't. I mean less probability.

            well Lets see.

            Comment


            • #7
              Eur/Usd 1.4455

              My stops had been blown Out.. what a terrific start. Already -30 pips

              Comment


              • #8
                Eur/usd current 1.4410

                Eur/usd made a test to 1.4500 and was down sharp after that... almost 100 pips till now. Since the early trade made me -30 I had too short from 1.4485 and now I could see some decent pips floating.

                I'm Looking at 1.4375, 1.4350 Level... and expect some price action from here. Now one need to watch the forthcoming Rally...what the bulls do now. If they trade below 1.4500 then of coz..this will emphasis more on my mid-term downtrend. well the Hopes are still Alive.

                The daily candle is already trading below pivots, It made a Lower High today (comparing previous candle) and the 4Hr candle has a downside break. This could be an early warning what the daily candle formation is seeking to day. so Although the whole day is still to come ..But we have already slight hint about how the daily candle will close ( I guess it will be a bear close Today)

                ok Gauging now.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hi manu,

                  We know the longer term trend is up. On the Daily I can see a 1-2-3 formation suggesting plenty more upside possibly beyond the most recent swing high at around 1.4700 in the next few days. So, long is still a preferred direction and I wouldn't consider going short until the most recent swing low of 1.4320 is broken with a closed Daily candle.

                  The Daily candle showing as bearish now means nothing to me. Most candles start off in the opposite direction to which they close, also it's common for moves in the Asian session to be totally reversed in the UK and US sessions.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Acctually we do have to see how this daily candle close... If its bear.. from tommrow ownward I'll start aggressive shorts. Hmm daily Lower High... along with a break on 4-Hr. thats a sexy setup. Although little early but it really tells that we will have a bear close today...most probably

                    and yes If 1.4500.. breaks... we will see till 1.4700 easily in such case

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Eur/usd: 1.4225

                      Early morning I Looked at Eur/Usd and I was pleased to see that its preparing for short. and I had planns for Tommrow, I even talked about this earlier.......But I didn't had an Idea that It will drop so much down Today Itself.

                      My earlier positions has been closed on 1.4357 my Tp. But I missed a Lot.

                      Damm I had a busy day today and was not able to monitor the market. whatever..... I will have to enter on pullbacks now... Let me think from where.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Eur has been badly screwed up... It won't even be able to trade above 1.4350 for time being....

                        Bears are on fire. so I don't see much of retracement coming... so whats the point to enter on pullback. best would be leave for Today.

                        I'm placing a pending sellLimit at 1.4325. stopLoss 40 pips. If its executed Good.. else I will see what to do tommorw.. or maybe I'll sell the breakout If it donot gave a decent Pullback.

                        now the level to watch is 1.4350, Bulls won't break that. Frankly speaking I donot think any rally will bypass this If this downtrend is genuine. 1.4400 Hardly.

                        and what about 1.4500-- well thats yesterday story.. Lets not talk about that..


                        Cheers

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Manu!

                          Brother! You were right all along! Great!

                          Sorry that you missed those pips!

                          I see a rebound upward at the 3950 level; It would break the 1.4525

                          The 3950 level would be one to checkout! If break this level then definitely the maximum down would be .3750 not .3150

                          What do you think?

                          Anyhow, thanks for your postings.
                          Last edited by 4xmeter; 15-06-11, 19:25.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Great call manu

                            That was some drop !

                            With a strong plunge like that it's not even worth waiting for a daily close to confirm the change in bias to Short lol.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Eur/usd current 1.4194

                              For some Reason.. the Intraday charts points that the price will be in the Range Today. Although the previous day we saw a vibrant drop. and no doubt it should continue.

                              the Intraday charts is Lacking momentum. Its just the asian session and the day has started yet,so saying anything now is not totally appropriate. And there is of coz a heavy probability that we might see another down plounge, as what happens generally.. a series of bear candles.

                              however I was talking about Intraday momentum which is not Looking Good. I think Today Eur/usd will be trapped in the Range 1.4260- 1.4140. Until be break the either side. so Today might just be one of those scalping day.... I won't open any new short until I see momentum on 30 mins- 1 Hr.

                              But I do see a trade setup forming.

                              SellLimit: 1.4255

                              stops: 1.4280

                              Tp: 1.3820, 1.3580


                              [ watch Out for 1.4130. Its going to give a very tuff time ]

                              Comment

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