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  • #16
    High Debt, Make EU Vulnerable

    Monday, March 28, 2011 08:30

    After Greece and Ireland, one by one EU member state must bailout. In Portugal, these conditions force the resignation of Prime Minister Jose Socrates. How fragile the Eurozone economy.

    Senior Economist Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Djisman Simandjuntak said the case in some EU member states was triggered by a breach of the Stability Pact. Among other things, the debt ratio should not exceed 60% of gross domestic product (GDP) and annual borrowings should not exceed 3% of GDP.

    According to him, all countries should abide by the euro denominated pact. But, that's who violated the member countries of the European Union called Gypsies (Greek, Italian, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. "Because, its debt was well above the maximum level," he told INILAH.COM, in Jakarta, yesterday .

    Based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2010 the ratio of debt to Greece's GDP amounted to 124.9%, 120.1% Italy, Portugal 84.6%, Ireland 82.9%, and Spain 66.3%. "For the moment, Portugal, is one of the countries most affected by the ratio of debt," he said.

    Therefore, he continued, is a recipe to deal with macro-economic tightening. The state budget that had to be shortlisted. "But, on the other hand, tightening it just raises the problem of unemployment," said Djisman.

    He also explained, the high debt ratio of Gypsies is a problem for the eurozone as a whole because it has the same currency is the euro. Whatever actions taken large debtors, influence on European countries to another. "Thus, countries with high debt ratios is not possible to avoid a bailout from countries with low debt ratios," he said.

    Other European countries debt ratios are low, do not want to weaken its currency due to its neighboring countries which have high debt levels. "In fact, every debt crisis, will drag its currency weakening," said Djisman.

    If the euro continues to weaken, the wealth of German, French, Dutch and other European countries are also eroded. Purchasing power was weakened and the level of consumption tends to fall. "National income would weaken the country concerned. Would not want to be the bailout of the debtor countries that, "he said.

    But the bailout still leaves a dilemma. Because, bailout followed by the number of terms. One of them is cutting state expenditure. In this situation people usually rebel. "Subsidy education, unemployment, food and fuel oil (BBM) will be reduced which in fact is not desirable people," he said.

    Moreover, the Europeans are accustomed to luxurious living. But, indeed in a swollen debt situation, there is no way other than the bailout. If the debt is too large, the savings should be done. "The choice is not much. Spending cut or taxes raised where the people are not willing, "she says.

    In economics, Djisman admit there is nothing at no cost. If a large expenditure, the tax must also be large. If you do not want huge taxes, the debt must be large. "It's just that, as a member of the European Union, the debt must not exceed the terms of earlier, more than 60% of GDP," he said. As a result Djisman firm, Europe's fragile because the country's debt exceeds that limit.

    For Indonesia, said Djiman, Europe's debt crisis is not a threat. Because, RI trading partner more with East Asia. Only, there's little or big influence. Because, in some commodities, RI exports to Europe is big enough, such as textiles, coffee, palm oil and shoes. "Indonesia should shift its market to Asia and the Middle East problem is not expected to deteriorate," he added.

    So far, the Portuguese government continues to refuse international aid following the resignation of Prime Minister Jose Socrates on Wednesday (23 / 3). Cabinet spokesman Pedro Silva Pereira said the government would continue to oppose the possibility of requesting foreign ***istance. "Our position is clear, rejecting foreign aid," he said.

    The Government considers aid can still be avoided. Foreign aid will have serious consequences for the economy. Opposition parties in Portugal refused to support the new tightening policy package announced by the minority Socialist party on March 11, 2011.

    Comment


    • #17
      European Exchange Slightly Higher, News Corporation Helps

      Monday, March 28, 2011

      European stock markets traded slightly higher Monday, with a healthy corporate news helps maintain a positive tone, although there is still uncertainty surrounding the global economic health.

      At 0820 GMT, Europe's benchmark Stoxx 600 index rose 0.2% at 276.50. London's FTSE 100 index 0.2% higher at 5914.66, Frankfurt's DAX index 0.3% higher at 6964.83, and the Paris CAC-40 index rose 0.3% at 3984.48.

      Helping push higher London market is the pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca PLC, which raised full-year profit targets after reaching a settlement with the UK and U.S. tax authorities on transfer pricing arrangements. As a result of the agreement, the company's effective tax rate is estimated to 6% lower than expected from this group, so raising the target for full year 2011 core earnings per share. AstraZeneca shares rose 1.3%.

      Nokia shares rose 2.2% after Goldman Sachs raised rating on the stock to buy from neutral, while Alcatel-Lucent shares rose 5.9%.

      Nomura analyst advised investors not to be defensive in the stock market to gain more likely.

      "Earnings momentum has clearly slowed down in Europe due to margin pressures bite, but with the revised earnings are still positive, economic and earnings surprise in the trend, and low valuation, we see no slow EPS revisions establish a new bearish trend for the market," said Nomura.

      Also helping is a positive tone selloff in oil prices in Europe.

      Efforts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to ease concerns about supply disruptions have resulted in the market.

      OPEC President M***oud Mirkazemi repeat last weekend that the current political events in the world still does not guarantee an extraordinary meeting of the cartel and that there is no need for discussion on current oil prices or additional production.

      At 0830 GMT, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for May delivery traded at $ 104.79 per barrel, down $ 0.61 on the Globex electronic session.

      At 0835 GMT, the euro traded at $ 1.4076, down from $ 1.4087 late Friday in New York. Dollar was trading at Y81.76, up from Y81.33. However, the Australian dollar was at $ 1.0288, after hitting a high $ 1.0316.

      Elsewhere, spot gold traded at $ 1,418.70 per troy ounce, down $ 8.80 from New York on Friday, while the benchmark German bund contract for June delivery was down 0.47 at 121.56.

      Comment


      • #18
        Haunted Debt Crisis Euro, Sterling inhibited by interst rates

        This week's issue of European debt crisis will continue to haunt the strengthening Euro and the currency could sink again when they appear downgrade news for Spain from a third country credit rating agencies, S & P, Moody's and Fitch.
        But speculation that the ECB rate hike soon be decided in April to make the euro rose again to record euro zone CPI data later on Thursday appeared better than the forecast 2.3%.

        While in England, the possibility of higher interest rates are still hampered by issues of economic growth in Britain is not yet stable. This week's PMI manufacturing index data will be the market spotlight. When the index numbers come out better than 60.6 will increase expectations for the BoE interest rate hikes in the near future.

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        • #19
          European Economic Zone Optimism Decrease In March

          Wednesday, March 30, 2011

          Sentiment in the euro-zone economy declined in March because of unrest in the Arab world launched a comprehensive oil prices and Japan has been hit by devastating earthquakes, tsunamis and fears of the spread of nuclear, official data showed on Wednesday (30 / 3).

          The monthly report of the European Commission (EC) shows that despite strong sentiment in the industrial sector, slumped in the service sector, consumer, retail trade and construction. Size of business optimism commission also fell for the first time in 9 months.

          European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator say all for the 17 nations that make the currency fell to 107.3 in March from 107.9 in February. The decrease is slightly larger than the market consensus estimate fell to 107.5 from Dow Jones Newswires survey.

          Commission's business climate indicator fell to 1:41 from 1:46 in February - which is the highest record since May 2000. It was the first time the business climate indicator fell in June - and also exceeded economists' expectations of a setback to 1:43.

          The size of strong sentiment in the industry to survive in 6.6 in March - exceeding expectations of economists in a note 6.0. Sentiment in the industry for the European Union (EU), the overall increase support from a strong rise in the UK, the Commission said it.

          Nevertheless, the Commission said it expected industrial production fell in the EU and the euro area, although progress on the ***essment of the level of order bookings and an increasing number of managers considering their stock is not sufficient. Managers are also slightly more pessimistic about the order's exports, he said.

          Commission indicator of consumer optimism fell to -10.6 in March from -10.0 in February - reflecting more pessimistic about the future general economic situation, financial situation and possible future customers to save money in the next 12 months.

          Consumer section of the report also shows there is a sharp rise in view of the size indicator of price trends over the next 12 months to 30.8 in March from 25.7 in February.

          That is a sign of inflationary pressures are formed in the euro zone and possibly spur fears the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise interest rates for the first time in almost 3 years in April.

          Elsewhere, the Commission said the measure sentiment in services fell to 10.8 from 11.2 in February, while retail trade notes fell to -1.5 from -0.2. Construction sentiment indicators are still very weak, falling to -25.0 in March from -24.2 the previous month.

          Comment


          • #20
            European markets opened higher education; Hope In Recovery

            Wednesday, March 30, 2011

            European Stock Exchange pushed higher Wednesday, encouraged by the positive tone out of Asia as investors shifted their focus to the macro data that are generally healthy and away from the current geopolitical uncertainties.

            At 0910 GMT, the European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.7% to 278.50. national index between, London's FTSE 100 index up 0.5% at 5960.32, Frankfurt's DAX index 1.3% higher at 7022.49, and the Paris CAC-40 index rose 0.8% at 4021.23.

            Gains in Asia helped this tone, with the key Tokyo market rose by a weaker yen and news that many companies are restarting production after the devastating earthquake this month.

            Japanese industrial production also rose for the fourth consecutive month in February, data showed on Wednesday, in another sign the economy has recovered to the state before a devastating earthquake and tsunami.

            Factory output rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted in February from the previous month.

            The Nikkei Stock Average closed up 2.6%, the highest closing level since March 11, while Australia's S & P / ASX 200 rose 1.3%, South Korea's Kospi Composite rose 1.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1 , 6%.

            Now attention will turn to the news of the U.S. economy, the largest in the world.

            Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will be key again expected to show healthy employment picture. Meanwhile, the ADP employment figures - seen by many indications of wage rates will then be released in 1215 GMT.

            Mining stocks led the advance as copper prices rose. Europe's Stoxx 600 index for this sector rose 1.8% at 610.02. BHP Billiton added 2.6%, while Antofagasta rose 2%.

            Stora ENSO rose 1.5% after Morgan Stanley raised to Overweight rating on the company from equalweight.

            Elsewhere, investors retreated from the UK electrical retailer Dixons since warned of a decline in consumer confidence, lower the profit target for this year and said it was considering exit from the Spanish operation.

            Comment


            • #21
              UK Economy News and Reviews

              Sterling Strengthen Service Sector Growth
              Wednesday, March 30, 2011

              Sterling rose after data showed the strongest growth in the service sector in the last nine years and an increase in retail sales, this could be an argument for the Bank of England to Tighten monetary policy by damping inflationary pressures. The services sector index rose 1.3% in January, higher than the previous publication which fell 1.1%, according to data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics. ***ociation of British Industry (CBI) also reported retail sales index rising to 15, higher than the estimated 1 and a publication February 6.

              "Data services sector and improved retail sales rises; this may be an indication of economic recovery in the first quarter and give more arguments for the Bank of England meeting in April," said Nick Stamenkovic, RIA Capital Markets strategic. "If England can Put the growth in the first quarter of 2011, the top br*** that called for the detention BoE interest rate can be a supporter of monetary tightening."

              Despite the sterling strengthened in the London session, traders remained skeptical of the prospect of sterling in the near future. "Until sterling stable over the area of ​​$ 1.6070/80 then bearish still dominate," said Michael Hewson, CMC strategic market. "To be stable, it need Put sterling closing level in over $ 1.6020/30."

              Comment


              • #22
                News and Reviews European Economic Zone

                Coming Strong Euro CPI Data

                Thursday, March 31, 2011

                The euro rose in Asian markets related to purchases made by investors due to short-term outlook for the euro zone CPI data in March which will be released at 16.00 predictable showed inflationary pressures continuing, according to ECB council member, Bini Smaghi on Wednesday.

                A forex dealer at the Bank of Japan estimates that the number according to estimates. Growing speculation over monetary tightening ahead of ECB meeting next Thursday to push the euro to 1.4300 range next few sessions of the range of 1.4135, he added. But concerns about the widespread problems of debt can limit the strengthening euro, although Schaeuble German finance minister said Wednesday that the problem only affects little Portugal in Spain.

                "Market participants tend to see comments that have past since they have to focus on this issue," said the dealer. Bad news from the euro zone can drag the euro to 1.4100 level, he added.

                Comment


                • #23
                  News and Reviews European Economic Zone

                  Euro Zone Manufacturing Growth Slows in March

                  Friday, April 1, 2011

                  The rate of growth in euro zone manufacturing sector slowed slightly more than expected in March, while factory gate prices rose at the fastest rate on record, the end result of a survey by Markit financial company information showed Friday.

                  "Jump in a record average price charged for goods will further encourage the European Central Bank raised interest rates sooner, rather than later, which may encourage further the differences between member states [euro-zone]," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

                  The Markit Euro-zone manufacturing purchasing managers index ', is a measure of activity in this sector based on a survey of around 3,000 firms, fell to 57.5 in March from the top 10-and-half-year in February from 59.0. A reading above the neutral level of 50.0 indicates the sector is growing.

                  Economists expect no change from the flash, or early, 57.7 reading in March, according to Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists. Reading flash, which was published on 24 March are based on 94% of responses used in the final data, according to Markit.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    News and Reviews European Economic Zone (UK)

                    UK Manufacturing Growth Slow More Than Expected

                    Friday, April 1, 2011

                    UK manufacturing sector grew significantly faster than expected in March, while inflation pressures grew to a record high, a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply indicated on Friday (1 / 4).

                    The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector fell to 57.1 in March from a downward revision to 60.9 in February.

                    Economists in the Dow Jones Newswires poll estimate PMI fell slightly to 60.5 from a record at 61.5 in early February. That figure is the highest incorporated almost in 20 years.

                    March figures still show a strong expansion in manufacturing. Figures below 50 indicates activity from the previous month.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      News and Reviews European Economic Zone

                      European Exchange Will Open Low

                      Monday, April 4, 2011

                      European stock markets will start lower Monday as investors took profits after strong on Friday, said Jonathan Sudaria at Capital Spreads.

                      How London's FTSE 100 down 18 points at 5992, Frankfurt's DAX index fell 12 points in 7168, and the Paris CAC-40 fell 18 points in 4037. "While the image of the U.S. labor market improvement in capital markets and promote global economic outlook on Friday, traders now need to ***ess the consequences for monetary policy," added Sudaria.

                      As a result, the bank interest rate announcement on Thursday from the Bank of England and European Central Bank will be the focus. The economic data Monday, the euro zone PPI at 0900 GMT.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Spanish Economy News and Reviews

                        Print Records New Spanish Unemployment

                        Monday, April 4, 2011

                        Economic climate in Spain is still not improved, especially when the prism of the labor sector. Registered unemployment rate in March rose 0.8% compared to previous reports. Thus, unemployment in this country has been through the 4.33 million people.

                        According to the ministry of labor, the number of unemployed at this time was the largest since the comparative statistics introduced in 1996. Over the past year, the number of non-workers had jumped 4.01%.

                        March Unemployment increased in all sectors compared to February. The services sector recorded the largest decline in employment in March, as many as 150 thousand more than the figure in January. Spain increasingly establish itself as the country with the highest unemployment in the Eurozone. Statistics Based on EU data, the ratio in February reached 20.5%.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          UK Economy News and Reviews

                          Vodafone Deal Strengthens Sterling

                          Monday, April 4, 2011

                          Sterling strengthened supported by expectations of merger and acquisition flows after the British telecommunications company Vodafone agreed to sell its stake in French telecommunications company SFR worth? 7.75 billion. The continued expansion of construction sector also provide a positive impact for the sterling. Construction PMI index rose to a level of 56.4 for the month of March 2011, higher than expectations of 54.7, but not so remote from 56.5 the previous publications.

                          "Strengthening sterling triggered by Vodafone action to dispose of its stake in SFR," said Adam Cole, RBC strategic. "There will be flow of funds that you could sustain a sterling company." Vodafone is also selling 44% stake in Vivendi, with a price tag on the upper limit of analyst expectations. However, traders saw limited impact Vodafone's actions against sterling. "Looks like the market wants to achieve $ 1.62. There is still room reinforcement, but sterling is now testing a key resistance level, "said Neil Mellor, Bank of New York strategic Mellon.

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                          • #28
                            News and Reviews European Economic Zone

                            Euro Zone Inflation Pressure-Stay High

                            Monday, April 4, 2011

                            The producer price index, euro zone Put the highest increase in 2? last year, is certainly affirmed expectations of ECB rate hike this week. Annual producer price index rose 0.8%, 6.6%, although not as high as 6.7% forecast but remains higher than 5.9% in February publication. The euro weakened after data damping released.

                            Publication recent data continue to show rising inflationary pressures. Data last Friday, show the manufacturing price index also Put the highest increase since records began. ECB, which aims to keep inflation below 2% in the medium term, it could raise interest rates several times this year, starting with an increase at a meeting Thursday after maintaining rates at a low level of 1% in the last three years. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, has pointed out there are increasing risks of inflation and higher interest rates in April may occur.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              UK Economy News and Reviews

                              UK PMI Services Strengthen GDP Figures
                              Tuesday, April 5, 2011

                              The biggest sector in the UK economy grows at fastest pace in more than one year until bulanMaret, and this feature confirms the remarkable expansion in the first quarter of that of course will strengthen the UK's GDP growth figures.
                              PMI services index jumped to 57.1 recorded from the previous 52.6 in February and was the highest in the last 13 months.

                              Sterling immediately soared against the USD and the Euro so the data in the related release alter investors expectations against the perceived economic pertumbbuhan going expansion.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                FXstreet.com (Barcelona)

                                The Pound has rocketed over the latest sessions, bouncing from 1.6090 yesterday to fresh two week highs above 1.6300 and with room for further appreciation, according to Carol Harmer, technical analyst at CharmerCharts, who sees the pair aiming to 1.6402

                                Despite having reached oversold levels on short-term charts, Harmer sees the pair revisiting 2011 high at 1.6402: "Cable fulfilled obligation and once we broke 1.6225 buyers were back in the market and we have rallied to 1.6340 overnight. We are overbought short term, but med term charts remain positive and therefore we look for further strength to follow with 1,6402 the immediate target."

                                On the downside, 1.6205 should offer support, says Harmer: "1.6205 will now offer support and buyers should come in at these lower levels looking for a resumption of the uptrend, adding to 1,6185, keeping stops lower below 1.6120."

                                Comment

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