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  1. #501
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    BBH: euro may be able to strengthen to the recent maximums

    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the single currency hit yesterday support at $1.4220 and managed to return above 1.4300 due to the hawkish comments of the European Central Bank.

    The specialists claim that the pair EUR/USD may go up reaching the recent maximums in the $1.4550 zone. In their view, the ECB will likely continue tightening its monetary policy this year, while the EU financial support rules out the possibility of an un-orderly default in Greece.

    Never the less, the bank isn’t so sure about further growth of euro. The economists underline that the European currency will still find itself under pressure of the euro zone’s debt crisis. For the pair could reach 2011 maximum in the $1.50 area, it has to break above $1.4550 on the sustainable basis. In any case trading is going to remain volatile affected by the risks associated with peripheral European nations.


  2. #502
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    Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF

    The greenback went up versus Swiss franc from Wednesday’s minimum at 0.8365 to the 5-month downtrend resistance line at 0.8495.

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the bearish pressure on the pair USD/CHF will ease if manages to close above 0.8554 (May 4 minimum and May 31 maximum). In this case US dollar will be poised up to 0.8593/8630 (Fibonacci level and the 55-day MA).


  3. #503
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    Commerzbank: EUR/USD prospects after NFP

    Analysts at Commerzbank think that the greenback won’t be able to gain versus the single currency on the Non-Farm Payrolls data.

    The specialists think that even if the data goes in line with the forecasts, US dollar won’t be able to keep moving up.

    The bank claims that the market talks about 130,000-140,000. If US economy gets less than 100,000 jobs, investors will get disappointed, especially in the unemployment rate increases.

    As the specialists are looking forward to a discouraging result, the pair EUR/USD, in their view, has all chanced to find support.

    The European currency returned today below $1.4300. Support levels are situated at $1.4220 (July 7 minimum), $1.4155 (uptrend support from May minimums) and $1.4100 (July 26 minimum). Resistance is situated at $1.4365/75 (50-day MA), $1.4395 (July 5 minimum) and $1.4465 (July 6 maximum).


  4. #504
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    Reuters poll: experts’ forecasts on GBP/USD

    According to monthly poll conducted by Reuters among 60 banks and analysts, British pound that has declined versus the greenback from $1.6800 to $1.5900 in the second quarter will remain at these levels for some time.

    The respondents think that the pair GBP/USD will trade in the $1.6100 region during the next half of a year. The median forecast shows that sterling will start slowly strengthening only in 2012. The surveyed expects see pound reaching $1.6300 and then pulling back down to $1.6200 by the middle of the next year.


  5. #505
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    MIG Bank, Commerzbank: bullish view on USD/JPY

    Technical analysts at MIG Bank claim that as the greenback has overcome resistance at 81.30 trading versus Japanese yen, it’s moving up to 82.25. In their view, the pair USD/JPY will face some resistance at 81.80/85.

    Specialists at Commerzbank also note that US dollar has managed to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 81.31. According to them, above this level American currency will be poised up to the 55-day MA at 81.62 and then to the 200-day MA at 82.10. If dollar climbs above the latter, it will go higher to the downtrend line from 2007 to 2011 at 83.13. The bank sees support levels at 80.40 and 80.00.

    Economists at Citigroup think that strong US Non-Farm Payrolls data will push USD/JPY to the levels in the 82.00 area.


  6. #506
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    ECB decided to support Portugal

    The European Central Bank, as it was widely expected, lifted up yesterday its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.

    The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed that the region’s central bank would suspend its rating-requirement standard for Portugal so that nation could continue to use its bonds as collateral for central bank loans despite the fact that Moody’s Investors Service cut the country’s credit rating to Baa1.

    According to Trichet, this decision was taken taking into account the fact that the Portuguese government has approved an economic and financial adjustment program which has been negotiated with the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF. Earlier the ECB waived minimum thresholds for Greek and Irish bonds.

    Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon note that the fundamental issues and tensions within euro area are still in place. The specialists draw investors’ attention to the fact that Trichet hinted that the rate hike would not be immediate.

  7. #507
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    Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

    Weekly GBP/USD

    Last week the trade was volatile – the bulls and the bears were fighting for domination at the market, so there was a small candle with long upper and lower shadows formed on the weekly chart. The bears turned out to be a bit stronger, so pound didn’t manage to overcome resistance provided by the Standard line.

    Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have approached each other preparing to make a “dead cross” (1). Never the less, this signal won’t de strong as the figure will be formed above the bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

    The prices will get support from the lower border of the uptrend channel and still ascending Kumo (3). In addition, the already mentioned Standard line is moving up that means that the longer term uptrend tends to continue.



    Daily GBP/USD

    On the daily chart the situation is still more pessimistic. On the upside the prices face resistance from the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and the descending Ichimoku Cloud that has widened during the recent weeks that means the bears are leading at the market.

    Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the “dead cross” formed below the Ichimoku Cloud – the bearish signal.

    At the same time, the longer term trend (Kijun) remains neutral, while Tenkan and Senkou Span A which characterize short-term price moves are deviating upward. Taking into account the outlook on the weekly chart we don’t disregard the possibility of the pair’s attempt to rise to the resistance line connecting May and June maximums.


  8. #508
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    Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

    Weekly USD/JPY

    On the weekly chat Tenkan-sen has managed to recoil a bit from the longer term Kijun-sen that remains horizontal since the beginning of April (1) – the bulls have managed to prevent the “dead cross”.

    In addition, there was an “inverted hammer” candle formed last week – the bullish signal. Moreover, the descending Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing – Senkou Span B goes down (2), while Senkou Span A is flat.

    The bulls will likely manage to move higher this week.



    Daily USD/JPY

    On the daily chart tankan0sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2), as it was expected, formed the “golden cross”. Despite the rate’s decline on Friday, the Standard line (2) acted as support helping the pair go up at the beginning of this week.

    The Ichimoku Cloud has narrowed almost to the limit – the lines Senkou Span A and B have come close to each other.

    As a result, the bulls have now the chance to win the leadership. To achieve this they have to overcome 2 obstacles – the Turning line (1) and Senkou Span A.


  9. #509
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    Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

    Weekly USD/CHF

    On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF kept consolidating between 0.8275 and 0.8550.

    The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) are still providing resistance for the prices. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4).



    Daily USD/CHF

    On the daily chart the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are preparing to form the “golden cross” (1). The Standard line and the lines limiting the Ichimoku Cloud (2) are directed sideways, while the short-term Turning line is deviating up.

    This week the bulls are likely to move up to the levels in the 0.8440/0.8500.


  10. #510
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    Commerzbank: bearish view on EUR/USD

    The single currency went down from last week’s maximums versus the greenback in the $1.4575 getting below the uptrend support line at $1.4156.

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/USD is now poised down to 200-week MA $1.4024, the recent minimum at $1.3968 and the 200-day MA at $1.3907.

    According to the bank, on the upside the pair will be limited by resistance at $1.4400 and $1.4538/80.


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