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  1. #101
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    UBS: G7 intervention will be a success

    Analysts at UBS expect that the coordinated intervention of G7 nations to weaken Japanese yen’s rate will turn out to be efficient enough and manage to attain its goal.

    After having analyzed the data for the last 30 years the specialists note that in 4 out of 5 cases the joint action helped to reverse the currency’s rate in the desirable direction. The bank says that the interventions were successful as G7 central banks were intervening in correspondence with the changes in the interest rates differentials.

    So, during the mentioned period there were several interventions conducted:

    1) 1985: Plaza agreement to devaluate US dollar. The result – the pair USD/JPY lost 50% in 2 years;

    2) 1995: Washington agreement to strengthen the greenback;

    3) 1998: Japanese Ministry of Finance and US Department of the Treasury asked the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan to intervene buying yen that brought US dollar below the 150 yen level;

    4) September 2000: ECB, the Fed and the central banks of Japan, England and Canada performed joint intervention to stop euro’s slump;

    5) 1987: Louvre agreement. The nations failed to support the greenback as German Bundesbank raised rates in summer of the same year.

    UBS forecasts that the pair USD/JPY will rise to 83.00 yen in 3 months. In June the Fed will end the second round of its quantitative easing program. The European Central Bank is likely to lift up the benchmark rate already in April. The BOJ, on the contrary, is expected to keep its rate close to zero.


  2. #102
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    US dollar is expected to decline in the long term

    US dollar has been weak for many weeks. Even as the G7 nations conducted a joint intervention to weaken Japanese yen didn’t help US currency to gain versus its other counterparts.

    Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics and political science at the University of California Berkeley, thinks that there is no longer a logical reason for the dollar to be the world's only reserve currency as the US accounts for only 20% of the world’s economy. The specialist expects that the European currency will become a global currency in 5 years. Eichengreen also believes in the Chinese government's plan to internationalize yuan by 2020.

    Analysts at J.P.Morgan note that US dollar is close to the record minimums on the trade-weighted basis. In their view, there’s a structural shift in the currency markets. The strategists recommend diversifying 15-20% of the investment portfolio to non-dollar ***ets.

    The specialists at BMO Capital Markets are bullish on American currency in the short term. During the next 1-2 years, however, emerging market countries will start regarding inflation levels as too high and will stop trying to depreciate their national currencies against dollar. As a result, the specialists see strong potential decline ahead of the greenback.


  3. #103
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    Commerzbank: 1.4283/93 – resistance for EUR/USD

    The single currency has at last overcome the 1.4200 level and is now consolidating below the 14-month maximum at 1.4281.

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair EUR/USD is facing strong resistance in the 1.4283/93 zone of November 2010 maximum and the 3-year resistance line. The specialists expect euro to fail at these levels.

    If the European currency will somehow manage to rise above 1.4380, it will get strength to advance to the long-term double Fibonacci retracement at 1.4425 and 1995 maximum at 1.4535. The odds that euro’s rates will be rejected there are very high.

    Strategists at Barclays Capital say that the bias for EUR/USD is bullish and upside pressure will ease only below 1.4040.


  4. #104
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    Forecasts for Japanese economy in 2011

    Economists expect that Japanese economy will rebound in the second half of the year. However, their views vary on the point whether Japan will slip into a recession or not.

    Analysts at Mizuho Securities are sure that the country’s economy will contract, while the specialists at Barclays Capital don’t think Japanese GDP will drop in any quarter of 2011. The median estimate of Bloomberg survey is that Japan will add 0.4% in the second quarter on the annual basis.

    The size of its decline in the first half will depend on the magnitude of electricity disruptions caused by the earthquake and tsunami, notes Goldman Sachs. The analysts underline that it’s very difficult to measure the negative effect on Japanese production, but it’s clear that various elements of the supply chain will be affected.

    Economists at Deutsche Bank say that even if panic buying of daily necessities may temporarily boost the demand, the level of economic activity will be lower” because of fears of radiation from the power plant and electricity shortages. It’s necessary to remember that in the fourth quarter of 2010 Japanese economy will lose 0.3%. Deutsche Bank analysts now see a second straight drop in GDP, with a return to growth in April to June.

    Analysts at Credit Agricole underline that a lot of wealth was lost as a result of the disaster and the country’s economy will find itself under negative pressure in the medium and long term.

    Specialists at Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi UFG Securities expect that Japan’s GDP will decrease by 6-12% in the second quarter on the annual basis. All in all, the economists think that Japanese economy will lose 1-3% in 2011. The forecasts for 2012 differ from contraction by 1% to 3% recovery.

  5. #105
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    BNP Paribas: negative factors for EUR/USD

    Analysts at BNP Paribas believe that the European currency is beginning to lose upside momentum trading versus the greenback.

    The specialists note that there are no factors that could push the pair EUR/USD above resistance at 1.4280. The Bank of Japan made no new actions, while the positive outcome of the upcoming EU summit has been already priced in euro’s rate as well as the April rate hike. According to the bank, the bank may ignore more hawkish comments from ECB.

    Moreover, BNP Paribas expects that Portugal's debt problems will force the country to apply in April to the EFSF for bailout.

    In addition, the analysts say that German IFO economic sentiment index that is due on Friday may show a sharp fall in the market’s expectations.


  6. #106
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    J.P.Morgan: strategy to buy loonie

    Analysts at J.P.Morgan expect oil price to advance. In their view, there can be no doubts that if the crisis in Libya continues, oil prices will stay high. Moreover, the specialists think that even if the tensions in the Middle East ease it will encourage economic growth, which will eventually stimulate demand for oil.

    As Canada is the world's sixth largest oil exporter, J.P.Morgan is bullish on the Canadian dollar.

    The bank recommends waiting until after Tuesday, when Canada is discussing its budget to eliminate the event risk. Then the strategists advise to sell US currency and buy loonie at 0.99 expecting that the pair USD/CAD will fall to 0.95. Stop orders should be placed in the 1.0150 area.

    It’s necessary to remember, that the Canadian currency is highly correlated with the S&P 500 index, so loonie’s purchases mean betting on higher US stock market. J.P.Morgan, however, doesn’t worry about this saying that US stocks will rise as the American economy recovers.


  7. #107
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    Mizuho: EUR/JPY may break higher

    Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the single currency is consolidating at the upper border of the broad range in which it was trading versus Japanese yen during the past year.

    The specialists claim that the technical picture says that the pair EUR/JPY is likely to break higher soon. In their view, this may also happen in other yen crosses.

    According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy euro at 115.00 adding on dips to 114.55. The bank recommends placing stop orders well below 114.00. The targets for EUR/JPY are found at 115.50 and 116.00.


  8. #108
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    Investec: pound may rise to $1.66

    Analysts at Investec claim that if British pound closes today above $1.64, it will get chance to rise to $1.66.

    The specialists note that, according to the data released today, UK inflation pace has increased to the highest level in more than 2 years encouraging speculation that the Bank of England may raise interest rates.

    In February CPI added 4.4% on the annual basis, while the economists were looking forward to only 4.2% growth.

    The pair GBP/USD rose today to the highest level since January 19, 2010 at $1.6401.

    The minutes of the BOE’s March decision will be published tomorrow.


  9. #109
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    Analysts on francís strengthening versus euro

    The single currency fell below 1.2800 versus Swiss franc ahead of the summit of EU leaders on March 24-25. Franc keeps resumed its strengthening path as investors concerned about Japan and the tensions in the Middle East buy it as a safe heaven.

    Analysts at BayernLB claim that the pair EUR/CHF may fall down to 1.2500 in the medium term.

    Strategists at Zuercher Kantonalbank think that euro is currently consolidating and note that it may find support at 1.2750 and then at 1.2703. The euro zoneís currency will remain under bearish pressure below 1.2850. If euro manages to overcome this level, it will get chance to rise to 1.2887.


  10. #110
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    Commerzbank: pound on its way up to $1.6425/65

    British pound reached yesterday new 14-month maximum in the 1.6400 area versus the greenback.

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that as the pair GBP/USD managed to overcome the 4-year resistance line at 1.6300, it’s now heading to the 1.6425/65 zone. This area contains a long-term double Fibonacci retracement (the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 2007 to 2008 and the 78.6% retracement of the move in 2009-2010) and the 2010 maximum.

    If sterling rises above 1.6425/65, it will be able to climb to 1.6880 and 1.7040/50 that may hold the initial bullish attacks.


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