Aggressive Growth Trading Journal ($1,000 to $100,000)

• Broker: TadawulFX (Live account)
  
• Leverage: 500:1
  
• Initial deposit: $1,000 USD
  
• Risk per trade: 30% 22%
  
• Strategy: Forex Morning Trade EA Turbo Morning Trade EA
  

 

First of all, I am absolutely aware that 30% is an insane amount to risk per trade and I must be an idiot to do such a thing, and that the recommended amount is actually 2% or 3%. However, the point of my strategy is to grow my account extremely aggressively and I wouldn't risk money that I wasn't willing to lose. In other words, if this blows my account then I'm alright with that. That said, I believe that a blow out is very unlikely. I am very confident in this EA and I believe it is one of the only EA's that won't blow an account and shows consistent profit. Backtests and forward tests prove this to be true. In addition, the 30% is compounded, so I can actually lose more than three trades and still be fine, although I've never seen more than three consecutive losing trades for this EA (excluding the holiday season). Once I grow my account to where I'd like to be, I will scale down to a more sane risk/trade percentage.

 

• The backtests I've run have shown enormous profit, and had I been running with these settings in 2010 I would be sitting on top of a $200k+ $700k+ account right now.
  
• I'll be updating this thread daily with the results, so follow it to watch my account grow (or crash and burn).
  
• I can't share this EA because it's blacklisted, but it looks to be worth the money.
  

 

Trackers

http://www.mt4stats.com/sig1/billcurry.gifhttp://www.myfxbook.com/widgets/76321/large.jpg

http://billcurry.mt4stats.com
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/billcurry/fmt/76321

 

Backtests

Backtest with my modifications and 99% modeling quality:

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester4.gif

Backtest: http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester4.htm
Details on modifications: http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/11258-Aggressive-Growth-Trading-Journal-(-1-000-to-100-000)?p=131688&viewfull=1#post131688

Backtest with vanilla EA and 99% modeling quality:

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester2.gif

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester2.htm

Original backtest with inaccurate historical data:

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester.gif

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester.htm

 

Other portfolios

businessman9821 has opened a live account using TMT with the same changes and settings as me.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/BusinessGuy09/graceland/84171

Edited February 8, 2011 by Bill Curry

You could have two accounts, each $500, one 5% risk, the other 30%.

At least, if you blow up the "30%", you can wait to have profit of $500 with the "5%" to try again.etc.

 

 

Will follow your stats.

Anyway, good luck.

Backtests have shown that the initial deposit actually means a lot. If I'd cut it back from $1,000 to $500, it'd essentially cut my profits at the end of the year in half. It would probably be a safer way to trade, but I'm swinging for the fences here.

 

Also, I added a myfxbook.com link and a link to the backtests for 2010.

Good luck m8te! Other ppl might think your crazy for doing this...but i personally love the idea! The most successful people in the world did things *outside of the box* to get where they are! And if you can stand to lose $1k in hopes of gaining 200k...then i say GO FOR IT!!! Heck i may even join you, (maybe with a different EA though, or maybe this one we'll see...)...The Greater the risk, the Greater the reward...of course we all know the downside to that, lol. In Texas they have a saying...Go Big or Go Home! Go Big M8te!!!

That is an awesome project, Bill.

 

Secretly I have always wanted to try something like that. But to be honest with myself I do not have the guts (or mental constitution) to do it on live account.

 

Wish you best of luck. Looking forward to follow your progress.

This is not Crazy Project......

Good Luck Bill....

 

Anyway...today I have sold GU on My Optimus demo at 1.6018 for TP 50 Pips and SL 40 pips....

Edited January 19, 2011 by Roels Major

@ Bill,

Maybe you should wait until February to start.

I read somewhere that December and January were the months riskier. (Holidays ... ... ... traders return from vacation ...traders not fresh enough!.. :) ....)

But I agree with some comments, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

 

 

@ Roels,

good call, you made it ;)

• Broker: TadawulFX (Live account)
  
• Leverage: 500:1
  
• Initial deposit: $1,000 USD
  
• Risk per trade: 30%
  
• Strategy: Forex Morning Trade EA
  

 

First of all, I am absolutely aware that 30% is an insane amount to risk per trade and I must be an idiot to do such a thing, and that the recommended amount is actually 2% or 3%. However, the point of my strategy is to grow my account extremely aggressively and I wouldn't risk money that I wasn't willing to lose. In other words, if this blows my account then I'm alright with that. That said, I believe that a blow out is very unlikely. I am very confident in this EA and I believe it is one of the only EA's that won't blow an account and shows consistent profit. Backtests and forward tests prove this to be true. In addition, the 30% is compounded, so I can actually lose more than three trades and still be fine, although I've never seen more than three consecutive losing trades for this EA (excluding the holiday season). Once I grow my account to where I'd like to be, I will scale down to a more sane risk/trade percentage.

 

• The backtests I've run have shown enormous profit, and had I been running with these settings in 2010 I would be sitting on top of a $200k+ account right now.
  
• I'll be updating this thread daily with the results, so follow it to watch my account grow (or crash and burn).
  
• I can't share this EA because it's blacklisted, but it looks to be worth the money.
  

 

Trackers

http://www.mt4stats.com/sig1/billcurry.gifhttp://www.myfxbook.com/widgets/76321/large.jpg

http://billcurry.mt4stats.com
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/billcurry/fmt/76321

 

Backtests

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester.htm

 

hello,

 

 

please share the good new Morning Trade EA

 

Thanks

Today was a bad day for FMT. The EA took a long position and hit my SL at -45 pips. I anticipate this month to be a roller coaster while traders get back into the swing of things but hopefully I'll still end up in the green by the end. It might be wise to stop the EA until February, but I think I'm going to keep it running.

Why 30% risk? Did you calculate that number? 20% or 25% risk for instance could be much more profitable. Do you know the Kelly Criterion? If you want to be ultra aggressive, that approach definitely is...

hello Bill, I see by your strategy tester your running the new version with the 'long candle' add-on.....good luck, i'll enjoy watching

Risk per trade 30% from $1000 starting account on Lev 1:500.... and coumponding......Lets do some simple calculation....

 

Your broker need $200 for 1 Lot......

Your starting Lot is 0.7....so your broker need $140 each trade....

Your Stop Loss 45 pips each trade so you could lose $7 x 45pips = $315 each trade.....

If U Suffer 3 loss in a row....the game is over.....

But your FMT setting has 12 wins in a row

 

The actual ratio win/loss is 4:1....

Hope the 3 concecutive loss would never happen in this short time.....

Edited January 20, 2011 by Roels Major

01.20.11 07:30 01.20.11 08:23 GBPUSD Sell 0.20 1.59280 0.00000 1.59530 1.59280 25.0 50.00 53m 5.00% from #4300974 ??

 

01.20.11 07:30 01.20.11 08:13 GBPUSD Sell 0.40 1.59530 0.00000 1.59530 1.59170 36.0 144.00 43m 14.40% FMT

After yesterday's loss I decided to switch over to Turbo Morning Trade since it shows less losses in backtesting and it didn't trade on yesterday's false signals. I'm running this right now with my SL=40, BE1=20, BE2=35, BE2+25, first TP at 35 pips taking 70% of the position, the second TP uses 20 trailing stop pips.

 

Also, to offset the losses, I've put KangarooEA on AUDUSD M5 with aggressive settings and 8% risk, as it has shown to be consistently profitable in forward and backward testing.

 

Today was a good day. TMT went into a short position and ended up hitting my first TP easily, exiting with 70% of the position. The downward trend continued for about 13 more pips and then completely reversed, hitting my second BE at 25 pips. This leaves my account right under where I started, so hopefully this begins the slow crawl into profitability :)

 

KangarooEA hasn't made a trade yet, but it is a slow EA that only trades a couple times a week, so I'm being patient.

 

The graphs of my account balance are starting to show a downward trend here, and if it continues then I will temporarily stop my trading and rethink my strategy.

 

The actual ratio win/loss is 4:1....

Hope the 3 concecutive loss would never happen in this short time.....

Risk per trade is compounded, so even at 30% risk/trade wouldn't blow an account easily, and certainly not in three consecutive losing trades.

 

For example, with a starting balance of $20,000:

• Loss #1: $6,000, Balance: $14,000
  
• Loss #2: $4,200, Balance: $9,800
  
• Loss #3: $2,940, Balance: $6,860
  
• Loss #4: $2,058, Balance: $4,802
  
• Loss #5: $1,440, Balance: $3,362
  
• Loss #6: $1,008, Balance: $2,354
  
• Loss #7: $706, Balance: $1,648
  
• Loss #8: $494, Balance: $1,154
  
• Loss #9: $346, Balance: $808
  
• Loss #10: $242, Balance: $566
  
• Etc.
  

 

Yes, the DD is massive, but that's the risk I'm taking.

30% risk per trade ? WOW ! That is hell alot. My respect to you for your bravery.

Wow, okay guys. So I wasn't completely happy with the backtests that I have done previously, especially with the quality, so I decided to make an effort to get some high-quality tick data from Dukascopy to backtest on. At first I was concerned that higher quality historical data would kill my profits. After several hours playing with the settings for TMT, I couldn't have been more wrong...

 

Here is the backtest for 2010. Take note of the 99% modeling quality. You'll also be able to see my settings there.

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester2.htm

 

From 2010.02.01 to 2010.12.01 with an initial deposit of $1,000:

http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester2.gif

 

Turned a $1,000 account into $734,096.00 in under a year with only 10% DD and 90% wins. Add to that the rebates I'd get from cashbackforex, and that would be nearly $800K for me. I know that there is a ridiculous amount of risk/trade, but honestly I think this EA is one of the few that it makes sense with.

 

These same settings for 2009 don't trade as well, but it still made over $300k!

 

Even you backtesting naysayers have to admit that these results are pretty interesting, and even half the profits would still be an amazing year.

 

P.S. I think we can all relax over the mediocre results this January -- I have been seeing similar results for the past few years. Things should start to turn around in February.

 

P.P.S. Follow this tutorial to get the same historical data. If you use this data keep in mind that the GMT offset is based on the data, not your broker. This data runs at GMT time, so there is no offset.

http://eareview.net/tick-data

Today was a bad day for FMT. The EA took a long position and hit my SL at -45 pips. I anticipate this month to be a roller coaster while traders get back into the swing of things but hopefully I'll still end up in the green by the end. It might be wise to stop the EA until February, but I think I'm going to keep it running.

 

Hi Bill,

sent u a pm. Plz check your Inbox. TIA

Bill i've just noted you have changed your first post to keep it upto date. that's good. the problem is with this type of EA it trades once per day (if your lucky) and when it does trade its often for BE, so this could take a while before we see real results......if it were a movie you'd fast-forwards it to the end to see what happens:-ss

Hi Bill,

 

I usually don't like EAs so much, but this one seems quite interesting and I may consider buying it soon.

 

I have few questions, if you don't mind.

 

I see you use Tadawulfx.

The minimum lot size and increment is 0.05.

 

If you change: LotsDecimals=2 (instead of 1)

Do you think FMT will take it into account and if yes, can you try to backtest with this parameter, it could boost a little more your already fantastic backtest! (and lower the risk on the early stages).

 

Also, if you get the time, could you try a backtest with (both parameters) but with the beginning date: April 11th to see if it goes through DD, or if it crashes!

 

 

And last one, are you happpy and confident with Tadawulfx?

 

Thanks a lot for your answers.

Freddy

Bill i've just noted you have changed your first post to keep it upto date. that's good. the problem is with this type of EA it trades once per day (if your lucky) and when it does trade its often for BE, so this could take a while before we see real results......if it were a movie you'd fast-forwards it to the end to see what happens:-ss

 

 

I tried to PM but:

"kraven has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space."

 

thanks :)

no new trades Bill?

So far January has been hell for this EA. Looking back at previous years show this to be normal. Things should start to pick up again in February. I'm going to turn off this EA for now and start again next week.

soooooooooooooo......I take it your down on your initial investment?

Yup. Been having mostly loser trades this month, as you can see by my myfxbook portfolio in my initial post. January is like this for this EA, apparently.

Hi Bill,

 

if you get a moment, could you answer to questions in my post#19.

Thank you