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  1. #11
    Gold Member Array kraven's Avatar
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    hello Bill, I see by your strategy tester your running the new version with the 'long candle' add-on.....good luck, i'll enjoy watching

  2. #12
    Platinum Member Array Roels Major's Avatar
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    Risk per trade 30% from $1000 starting account on Lev 1:500.... and coumponding......Lets do some simple calculation....

    Your broker need $200 for 1 Lot......
    Your starting Lot is 0.7....so your broker need $140 each trade....
    Your Stop Loss 45 pips each trade so you could lose $7 x 45pips = $315 each trade.....
    If U Suffer 3 loss in a row....the game is over.....
    But your FMT setting has 12 wins in a row

    The actual ratio win/loss is 4:1....
    Hope the 3 concecutive loss would never happen in this short time.....
    Last edited by Roels Major; 01-20-2011 at 03:51 AM.

  3. #13
    Platinum Member Array Roels Major's Avatar
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    01.20.11 07:30 01.20.11 08:23 GBPUSD Sell 0.20 1.59280 0.00000 1.59530 1.59280 25.0 50.00 53m 5.00% from #4300974 ??

    01.20.11 07:30 01.20.11 08:13 GBPUSD Sell 0.40 1.59530 0.00000 1.59530 1.59170 36.0 144.00 43m 14.40% FMT

  4. #14
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    After yesterday's loss I decided to switch over to Turbo Morning Trade since it shows less losses in backtesting and it didn't trade on yesterday's false signals. I'm running this right now with my SL=40, BE1=20, BE2=35, BE2+25, first TP at 35 pips taking 70% of the position, the second TP uses 20 trailing stop pips.

    Also, to offset the losses, I've put KangarooEA on AUDUSD M5 with aggressive settings and 8% risk, as it has shown to be consistently profitable in forward and backward testing.

    Today was a good day. TMT went into a short position and ended up hitting my first TP easily, exiting with 70% of the position. The downward trend continued for about 13 more pips and then completely reversed, hitting my second BE at 25 pips. This leaves my account right under where I started, so hopefully this begins the slow crawl into profitability

    KangarooEA hasn't made a trade yet, but it is a slow EA that only trades a couple times a week, so I'm being patient.

    The graphs of my account balance are starting to show a downward trend here, and if it continues then I will temporarily stop my trading and rethink my strategy.

    The actual ratio win/loss is 4:1....
    Hope the 3 concecutive loss would never happen in this short time.....
    Risk per trade is compounded, so even at 30% risk/trade wouldn't blow an account easily, and certainly not in three consecutive losing trades.

    For example, with a starting balance of $20,000:
    • Loss #1: $6,000, Balance: $14,000
    • Loss #2: $4,200, Balance: $9,800
    • Loss #3: $2,940, Balance: $6,860
    • Loss #4: $2,058, Balance: $4,802
    • Loss #5: $1,440, Balance: $3,362
    • Loss #6: $1,008, Balance: $2,354
    • Loss #7: $706, Balance: $1,648
    • Loss #8: $494, Balance: $1,154
    • Loss #9: $346, Balance: $808
    • Loss #10: $242, Balance: $566
    • Etc.


    Yes, the DD is massive, but that's the risk I'm taking.

  5. #15
    Platinum Member Array alansim's Avatar
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    30% risk per trade ? WOW ! That is hell alot. My respect to you for your bravery.

  6. #16
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    Wow, okay guys. So I wasn't completely happy with the backtests that I have done previously, especially with the quality, so I decided to make an effort to get some high-quality tick data from Dukascopy to backtest on. At first I was concerned that higher quality historical data would kill my profits. After several hours playing with the settings for TMT, I couldn't have been more wrong...

    Here is the backtest for 2010. Take note of the 99% modeling quality. You'll also be able to see my settings there.
    Code:
    http://bill.curry.name/backtests/fmt/StrategyTester2.htm
    From 2010.02.01 to 2010.12.01 with an initial deposit of $1,000:


    Turned a $1,000 account into $734,096.00 in under a year with only 10% DD and 90% wins. Add to that the rebates I'd get from cashbackforex, and that would be nearly $800K for me. I know that there is a ridiculous amount of risk/trade, but honestly I think this EA is one of the few that it makes sense with.

    These same settings for 2009 don't trade as well, but it still made over $300k!

    Even you backtesting naysayers have to admit that these results are pretty interesting, and even half the profits would still be an amazing year.

    P.S. I think we can all relax over the mediocre results this January -- I have been seeing similar results for the past few years. Things should start to turn around in February.

    P.P.S. Follow this tutorial to get the same historical data. If you use this data keep in mind that the GMT offset is based on the data, not your broker. This data runs at GMT time, so there is no offset.
    Code:
    http://eareview.net/tick-data

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  8. #17
    Platinum Member Array pro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Curry View Post
    Today was a bad day for FMT. The EA took a long position and hit my SL at -45 pips. I anticipate this month to be a roller coaster while traders get back into the swing of things but hopefully I'll still end up in the green by the end. It might be wise to stop the EA until February, but I think I'm going to keep it running.
    Hi Bill,
    sent u a pm. Plz check your Inbox. TIA

  9. #18
    Gold Member Array kraven's Avatar
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    Bill i've just noted you have changed your first post to keep it upto date. that's good. the problem is with this type of EA it trades once per day (if your lucky) and when it does trade its often for BE, so this could take a while before we see real results......if it were a movie you'd fast-forwards it to the end to see what happens

  10. #19
    Platinum Member Array freddy's Avatar
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    Hi Bill,

    I usually don't like EAs so much, but this one seems quite interesting and I may consider buying it soon.

    I have few questions, if you don't mind.

    I see you use Tadawulfx.
    The minimum lot size and increment is 0.05.

    If you change: LotsDecimals=2 (instead of 1)
    Do you think FMT will take it into account and if yes, can you try to backtest with this parameter, it could boost a little more your already fantastic backtest! (and lower the risk on the early stages).

    Also, if you get the time, could you try a backtest with (both parameters) but with the beginning date: April 11th to see if it goes through DD, or if it crashes!


    And last one, are you happpy and confident with Tadawulfx?

    Thanks a lot for your answers.
    Freddy

  11. #20
    Platinum Member Array freddy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kraven View Post
    Bill i've just noted you have changed your first post to keep it upto date. that's good. the problem is with this type of EA it trades once per day (if your lucky) and when it does trade its often for BE, so this could take a while before we see real results......if it were a movie you'd fast-forwards it to the end to see what happens

    I tried to PM but:
    "kraven has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space."

    thanks

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