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  • Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

    Hello, here is this thread we are going to publish market news and trade recommendations by the leading FX provider - FBS!

    Follow the updates and ask questions. We are here for you!

  • #2
    Dec. 24: Asian session

    Asian stocks rose boosted by the gains in the American session as the upbeat US spending data showed that US economic recovery gaining momentum. In addition, China’s central bank moved to ease a cash crunch by making its first market-wide money injection in three weeks.

    Japan’s Nikkei went up by about 0.8% to 6-year high above 16,000 after Tokyo markets opened after a holiday. USD/JPY rose to 104.41.

    AUD/USD declined to $0.8907 after peaking to $0.8960 yesterday. NZD/USD edged down to $0.8176. Gold dipped below the $1,200 level yesterday and is heading for its biggest annual loss in three decades.

    EUR/USD slid to $1.3675 after it tested $1.3716 on Monday. GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.6345.

    Comment


    • #3
      EUR/USD: how do the banks trade?

      There’s a choice among various shorts.

      BoA/Merrill: Short at $1.3764 with stop at $1.3834 and take profit at $1.3479

      Credit Agricole: Short at $1.3780 with stop at $1.4160 and take profit at $1.3300

      Credit Suisse: Short at $1.3800 with stop at $1.3860 and take profit at $1.3415

      Commerzbank: Short at $1.3750 with stop at $1.3815 and take profit at $1.3405

      Commerzbank: Short at $1.3665 with stop at $1.3815

      Morgan Stanley: Short at $1.3600 with stop at $1.3750 and take profit at $1.2700

      Comment


      • #4
        Nomura: trajectory for USD/JPY

        Analysts at Nomura have outlines a scenario for USD/JPY using Elliott waves. The specialists expect the pair to trade sideways in the 102.50/104.50 during the next month in the wave (4) and then rally to 106.00 in the wave (5).

        Comment


        • #5
          Credit Agricole: Q1 GBP forecasts

          GBP/USD

          GBP/USD to weaken to $1.6200 in the stronger USD environment. Britain's officials will try to talk the pound down in Q1 2014.



          Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

          EUR/GBP

          As for EUR/GBP, the pair is expected to fall towards 0.8200 by end-March. Pound will gain some ground vs. the euro on a wave of EUR sales.


          Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP

          Comment


          • #6
            Dec. 27: Asian session

            Most Asian stocks went up after big gains at Wall Street where Dow Jones made a record high close. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.25%. Chinese shares rose as money rates eased and China set its yuan at an historic high.

            USD/JPY tested briefly levels 105.00 today and EUR/JPY – 144.00. Yen hit 5-year lows versus the greenback and euro. Japanese data showed that the nation’s manufacturing activity is expanding at the fastest clip in more than 7 years, while Japanese firms added workers at the quickest pace in over 6 years. Japan’s core consumer price inflation in November rose to a 5-year high. This means that the country’s making progress in its fight against deflation.

            Australian and New Zealand dollars have both strengthened in the late Asian session. AUD/USD has recovered above the $0.8900 mark. However, the Monday bearish gap still remains open. NZD/USD rose to $0.8170. The pair is supported by the 200-day moving average.

            EUR/USD rose to $1.3745. GBP/USD went up to $1.6447.

            Comment


            • #7
              EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

              Daily. In the week ahead the New Year the US dollar is losing ground versus almost all major world currencies. EUR/USD recovered to 1.3740 by the end of the week. Bullish sentiment strengthened: prices have gone through resistance of the Tenkan-sen, and will soon be fixing above it. The Ichimoku Cloud also points to the strengthening of the bulls, but in the longer term.


              Chart. Daily EUR/USD

              H4. Here EUR/USD is leaving the Cloud. The pair’s supported by the short-term Golden Cross (C). The Cloud itself looks positive. It started widening up due to the growth of Tenkan-sen. The position of the bulls is strengthening. Note though that there’s a serious resistance at $1.3755. In addition Chinkou Span shows that the market is overbought. So, when the market reaches the level mentioned above, the market can either begin consolidation or make a corrective decline to the lower edge of the Cloud.


              Chart. H4 EUR/USD

              Comment


              • #8
                GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

                Daily. During the past week the pair has settled above Tenkan-sen (TS). This allowed the bulls to resume rebound. However, growth is only in the short term. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal, so there’s no dominating trend. At the same time, the pair’s once again approaching the yearly highs as it’s trading in the $1.64460 area. In the coming days the bulls may attempt to break the December range to the upside. This will open the way towards $1.6600.



                Chart. Daily GBP/USD

                H4. At H4 the pair was consolidating just below the lines Tenkan and Kijun which have formed the Dead Cross. However, in the second half of the weeks the buyers re-appeared and resumed rebound. The pair formed a Golden Cross (С), and both lines are rising now. Senkou Span A and B are going up as well. Bullish sentiment is strengthening, so the odds that the uptrend will continue are high.



                Chart. H4 GBP/USD

                Comment


                • #9
                  USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

                  Daily. During the past week the currency pair has been trading inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. The prices were mostly drifting to the lower border of this range. All lines of the Indicator remain horizontal, so the sideways move may continue. Note that the odds that the downtrend will resume are high as the Cloud remains bearish and the Dead Cross (С) is still in place.



                  Chart. Daily USD/CHF

                  H4. Here the trend is sideways as well. Here the pair has also been trading inside Tenkan-Kijun channel which itself is inside the Ichimoku Cloud. However, on Friday the sellers livened up and the pair fell to the lower border of the Cloud. As Chinkou Span went below the price chart, we expect downtrend to develop in the near term.



                  Chart. H4 USD/CHF

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 27)

                    Daily. USD/JPY is setting new highs. The pair has reached 105.00. So, the bullish rally continues supported by all lines of the Indicator at the daily timeframe. The Golden Cross (С) and the bullish Cloud confirm the positive sentiment. But after the prices test resistance at 105.20, the pair may start corrective decline to Tenkan-sen.



                    Chart. Daily USD/JPY

                    H4. At H4 there are yet no problems for further rebounding. All lines of the Indicator are rising as well. The Cloud is bullish. Tenkan and Kijun have once again formed the Golden Cross (С). If the pair managed to hold above support at 104.65 in the coming days, the pair will start the year by testing 105.20 and maybe even 106.00.



                    Chart. H4 USD/JPY

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ANZ: EUR/USD will continue uptrend

                      Analysts at ANZ point out that EUR gained 6% versus its main counterparts this year. This happened despite the fact that the ECB lowered interest rates to the record low, the euro zone’s economic recovery isn’t very convincing and the region’s unemployment remains extremely high.

                      ANZ concludes that the EUR depends not on comparative growth dynamics, but on a large current account surplus, improving fiscal position and the union’s progress in resolving the crisis and deepening economic integration. According to the specialists, this situation is unlikely to change in 2014. In their view, the uptrend will remain in place, especially against AUD and NZD. ANZ expects EUR/USD to trade in the $1.40/45 range.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Dec. 30: Asian session

                        USD/JPY edged up to 105.40. Asian stocks strengthened, curbing demand for haven assets. MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares advanced 0.2%.Yen declined on a mix of improving sentiment on the global economy, rising investor risk appetite and expectations of more Bank of Japan stimulus.

                        EUR/USD declined to $1.3730 after spiking to $1.3890 on Friday. Euro rose by the end of the year as the European banks tended to repatriate funds ahead of an asset review by the ECB. Mario Draghi said that he saw no urgent need to cut the euro zone’s main interest rate further and no signs of deflation. GBP/USD declined to $1.6474 after spiking to $1.6578 yesterday.

                        Commodity currencies are all trading under pressure, but have reversed the early-session drop. AUD/USD found support at $0.8835, holding a bit above the key $0.8820 support (Dec. 10 low). NZD/USD bounced from the $0.8115 low.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          BoA: EUR/USD will make a top

                          Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have noticed that since 2008 EUR/USD was reversing down near the long-term resistance after completing a 3-legged advance from the previous cyclical low. This time such low is at $1.2041 (July 2012 low).

                          So, the specialists are looking for a top and turn down. Targets lie at $1.2745 (March 2013 low) and $1.2173.


                          Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Analysts on USD/JPY 2014 prospects

                            We’ve seen an impressive rally in USD/JPY in the year 2013 – the pair rose by more than 3000 pips, recovering 61.8% Fibonacci from the 2007/2011 decline. The gradual widening of the yield spread between the US and Japan should support the pair further, as the Fed’s monetary policy will become less dovish with time, while the BOJ is expected to ease further. Our next bullish targets lie at 107.35 (200-month MA) and 108.80.

                            JP Morgan strategists warn about a strong bearish correction in the year 2014. “JPY has high risk of mean reversion over the next year because positioning is so stretched (shorts more than 3-sigmas from average). This extreme positioning is why we have flagged USD/JPY as vulnerable to a correction in Q2 (target 100) if the economy fails to reaccelerate quickly from a contraction induced by the consumption tax hike”. However, by the year-end analysts expect the pair to recover to 106.00.

                            Analysts at Deutsche Bank are much more optimistic on the USD prospects: “We are only about half way through a move that will eventually push up to and probably through 120.00 yen”. DB puts its 2014 USD/JPY forecasts at 106 in Q1, 109 in Q2, 112 in Q3 and 115 in Q4.


                            Chart. Monthly USD/JPY

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Jan. 9: Asian session

                              US dollar remains strong versus its main counterparts as the signs of improvement in the labor market (ADP said US private employers added a bigger-than-expected 238K jobs in December, the strongest increase in 13 months) support expectations the American economy will be strong enough for the Fed to end bond purchases this year. USD/JPY is trading in the 104.80 area after reaching 105.12 yesterday.

                              Asian shares wavered on Thursday after a lackluster performance on Wall Street overnight. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.2% after snapping a five-day losing streak on Wednesday. Despite the yen's weakness, Japan’s Nikkei benchmark shed 1.4%, giving up some of its 1.9% bounce in the previous session.

                              Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading under pressure for a third consecutive day. AUD/USD dipped to $0.8865 before bouncing to $0.8880. AUD weakened in the Asian trade despite the strong retail sales figures (+0.7% m/m vs. forecasted +0.5%). Australia has also released pretty neutral building approvals data (-1.5% m/m). NZD/USD hit a daily low of $0.8240. New Zealand building consents rose above the forecast by 1.1%. China inflation figures came a little bit below the forecast with CPI rising by 2.5% y/y and PPI falling by 1.4%.

                              EUR/USD edged up to $1.3586, while GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6450 area.

                              Comment

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