ddukic Posted September 19, 2012 Report Share Posted September 19, 2012 Gold Week 38 - Review and Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/goldW38.jpg GOLD COMMENTS: A serial of four consecutive positive weeks for the Gold brought its price just under the 0.618 Fib grade of the Fib Retr scale measuring the correction against the fall of the price between 5/9/2011 and 26/12/2011. The 0.618 Fib grade is an important pivot on every retracement Fib scale therefore this forthcoming week will give us new infos regarding the near future path of the Gold’s price. SUGGESTIONS: The long running positions opened from earlier levels remain opened. There is an important element: the price crossed from below the long standing blue trend line guiding upwards the price of Gold late 2008 immediately after the last substantial correction of the price. On the other hand there is a “triple top” set up at the present level. I want to remind you that “triple tops” either accelerate the running trend, or, create reversals, easily exploitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted September 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2012 Gold 20/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-20092012.jpg GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: Please observe how the traders confirm and re-confirm a certain level in order to reduce their uncertainty. This way, the Gold’s price “tried” already three times the 6.85 Fib grade-level at 1.779,91usd. Obviously, the supporting action of the 50SMA helped the recent activity of the price. It is rare to observe a waves’ sequence of similar time frame exceed the 6.85 Fib grade-level. If it happens, the price will continue moving in a different-longer time frame-time cycle frame. Otherwise, at the present level you will observe the beginning of a correction that by the passing of time may develop in trend reversal. SUGGESTIONS: For as long as the price remains above the 50SMA you keep “long” direction eventually increasing your long exposure. Attention though, the increase of exposure requires tight follow up of the price evolution. You should not leave your monitor un-attended. Once the price crosses from above the 50SMA and the U1 trend line you must consider the “short” direction. The downwards target is set at the level of the 200SMA at the time of crossing with the falling price, an attractive risk/reward ratio. trduraikamaraj 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted September 24, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2012 Gold 24/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-24092012.jpg GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: There is a film titled “Hard to die”. Have you seen it? The Gold’s price tried repeatedly during last week to exceed the 1.779,91usd level corresponding to the 6.85 grade of the relevant Fibo scale as shown in the chart. In the meantime the RSI is “diving” towards the “over sold” area, nevertheless the price does not lead the path of the RSI thus a new “divergence” of opposite direction occurs. The 50SMA is still effectively supporting the internal corrections of the Oil’s price. SUGGESTIONS: The existing opened and running long positions continue while you minimize your exposure. In case the price exceeds the presently resisting level, you will increase your exposure again. New short positions can be opened only after the price “dives” below the 50SMA. The new short positions do not have a favorable (for traders) risk/reward ratio because of the supporting technical elements existing below the 50SMA. trduraikamaraj 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted September 28, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2012 Gold 28/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-28092012.jpg GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART COMMENTS: A glorious chart. This is a chart for a seminar on technical analysis. The precision of the Fibo scale measuring the ascent of the Gold’s price since the 16th of May 2012 (this is back 4 and half months and about 250usd/oz) is very interesting. At the right top of the chart I estimated the next Fibo grade of this scale, at the level of 1.952,70usd/oz. Indeed, small “initial swings” extended, often, their exhaustion to the grade of 11,35 as shown in ths chart. SUGGESTIONS: Today Friday, the Gold’s price will create a new local high as a result of the traders to “dribble” the “double top” set up. In most cases the proof of a strong top or bottom is a little away from the strong level itself. Is like the poker players paying just to see another deck card. In the meantime, the 50SMA will assist, if needed, supporting a short pull back, another “dribble” as Lionel Messi does. The channel appearing, at this stage guiding the price is denominated by the U4a and U4b blue trend lines clearly shown in the chart. SUGGESTIONS: Whoever believed the 5.78 Fibo grade and yesterday decided to use it as support level thus opened long positions is a happy man/lady. Friends, keep them opened and cross your fingers that Gold’s price today, apart from the small additional profit that will most probably offer you, exceeds the “double top” psychological complex of most traders and continues its way looking at the stars. Stop loss for long positions the down crossing of the U1 blue trend line. If you want to protect some of your profits, set a trailing stop loss. Anyway, short positions will be considered only after the down crossing of the U1 trend line. trduraikamaraj 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2012 Gold 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-02102012.jpg GOLD COMMENTS: I insisted that my Fibo scale, installed since many days in this position was a correct and successful forecast. The evolution of the Gold’s price proved me right. You see, the repeated efforts of the price to exceed the level of 1.784,17 usd, corresponding to the 6.85 grade of the mentioned Fibo scale, proved unsuccessful. The 6.85 Fibo grade is a far outside grade very close to the psychological limit of “greediness” particularly in the cases where its achievement is rapid. In other words, if you could multiply your investment by 6.85 times in short period of time, you have reached at a point where satisfaction is fulfilled and greediness is ready to take over. Most people avoid greediness and exit their positions, obviously trying to exit at the highest possible level. This is why you observe this side move up here. Several holders of long positions are closing them by “selling” them. This is how you close a long position. You sell it. Others which have long positions temporize waiting to see the evolution. Obviously, some others are buying up here constituting, most probably, the next losers. SUGGESTIONS: Well according to my previous comments I can suggest to minimize or exit your long positions up here. In case the price continues upwards there is space and time to return opening long positions. The next target is some 200usd/oz higher. Whether to open or not short positions? I will suggest not to. The risk/reward ratio is not in your favor. You will take a risk that will be disproportionally high compared to the eventual profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2012 Gold 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-03102012.jpg GOLD 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: Same as the Oil chart. Traders move with discipline performing the absolute minimum trades to justify their salaries and unconvinced about the near future. As you may understand, when someone feels sure, convinced about an issue, any issue, even issues pertaining to personal life’s matters, he/she acts quickly and with determination. This is the moment that trends are created. Otherwise, all of us, slow down, we temporize, we want more evidences to make up our minds, “in bref” we hover around a decision that we don’t want to take. In trading similar circumstances should find you without positions. You have nothing to win staying in this limbo status. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2012 Gold 04/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-04102012.jpg GOLD 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: You know?, when the price in a chart moves fairly fast is kind of easier to predict the next target/s or path. If the price is moving very fast, you better stay away, thus is still easy. When though the price starts “muffing” like a blue cheese because it does not move or barely moves the technical analysis despairs. Anyway, the above chart bears still unbroken technical elements. The channel U4a – U4b is still intact and may end up guiding the Gold’s price. At the same time, our friends, the institutional traders extremely disciplined and full of patient kneed with the needle a dense sous-plat assisted by the support of the 50SMA. So, what to do? The short positions are the cheapest at this point. Obviously everyone knows that. Obviously, our friends the traders will suddenly and briefly pull up the price in order to burn the stop loses before allowing the price to fall. This is the scenario after the “distribution” performed up here. The opposite scenario, where the “accumulation” performed up here will push the price up will require long positions that if opened here will cost a lot as stop loss since its level is set at the price of 1.744,10USD. Make up your mind. Wait to see a little more of this “movie” and then make your bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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